The distribution of Hive Power has become very slightly more equal over the last month, according to a comparison of @argange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.
Below I look at trends in distribution from May 31st 2020 to June 30th 2020, based on all MVESTs and all users.
Probably the most alarming thing, based on the current attrition rate rather than usual Hive-bubble think, is that the number of Minnows are dropping off, and not because they are leveling up. At this rate, Hive is toast by 2023, based on the active user number and vesting stats.
This analysis doesn't take account of the 80 Million liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.
Not to say that people won't start to adopt Hive in the future, but based on the current stats, there is no sign of optimism, unless all of those new accounts are Minnows in waiting - although if they are none (and I mean literally zero) of them have actually bought the tiny, tiny, teeny-tiny $100 or so worth of Hive needed to become a Minnow, which hardly screams 'Moon'.
Trends in distribution by MVEST levels
31st May 2020
30th June 2020
| Level | % of total MVESTS 31st May | % of total MVESTS 30th June |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 36.31% | 36.24 |
| Orcas | 29.46% | 29.21 |
| Dolphins | 19.07% | 19.2 |
| Minnows | 9.97% | 10.01 |
| Redfish | 5.19% | 5.33 |
There's been a very minor shift in distribution away from Whales and Orcas of around 0.3% towards Dolphins, Minnows and Redfish.
Redfish Mvest level has grown the most with an increase in share of 0.14%.
This is a very minor shift towards greater equality.
Trends in distribution by number of accounts
31st May 2020
30th June 2020
| Level | No. of accounts 1st May | No. of accounts 31st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 33 | 31 |
| Orcas | 311 | 302 |
| Dolphins | 1904 | 1859 |
| Minnows | 9072 | 8954 |
| Redfish | 1375884 | 13844693 |
Two less whale accounts, eight fewer Orcas, 150 fewer Dolphins and 100 fewer minnows accounts.
In short, we have fewer larger accounts - I guess the Whale reduction is probably the last of the exchanges powering down, Orcas just the last of those narced Steemians Powering Down, and the Dolphin Disappearance the same.
Commentary/ Analysis
Overall, once we factor in the exhaust fumes of the transition to Steem there's very little difference - pretty stable stats over all I'd say.
My feeling is that the declining numbers of Higher level accounts is just the last few people disappearing following the Fork from Steem rather it being a decline of a gradual descent into oblivion.
100 000 new Redfish accounts created in the last month, seems like a good sign, but time will only tell how many of these go on to Power Up to Minnow and beyond, until they do the sheer number of accounts at Redfish level is pretty meaningless, as many of them have 0 HP and very little influence on the platform.
NB I actually wrote this yesterday, based on yesterday's stats, and then cut in today's updated stats today. In 24 hours we'd lost 10 more minnows, only one of them progressing up to Dolphin.
At this rate of attrition, Hive is minnow-toast by 2023.
Sources:
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Appreciate you putting this together... even if the trends are not all that positive. I just worry — as I did back on Steem — that too many people "with influence" are too concerned about building cool dApps and creating "micro-incremental" improvements to Hive... rather than focusing on the potential new members who are going to USE those features.
We also need to be careful (and this is NOT a criticism!) that we don't have so much content "about Hive" that the front page here comes across as irrelevant to anyone just driving by and who's not interested in blockchain, developing and cryptocyrrency... because that is a very tiny market niche.
I've been a bit short on time, myself, as of late... but one of my personal ambitions for the 3rd quarter is to publish MANY posts/articles that are in no way intended for internal Hive consumption, meaning they will be written specifically for external interest groups I am connected to. They may not get rewarded well because they will not be standard Hive "fare," but they will go before a lot of eyeballs. Now that we have a few more tools available... like PeakD page view stats and the Onboarding program... I feel a little more encouraged to explore this angle. Before, it felt meaningless because we had no page views, no way to see whether anyone actually READ something externally and responded by signing up.
I feel "cautiously optimistic" at this point.
I'm hoping it's the calm before the storm!
There does appear to be more decent non-Hive content around here, and that would most definitely be a good thing!
I'd like to also think it's the calm before the storm!
One of the things I've learned over the past four years or so is that one of the "quirks" of decentralization tends to be that things move rather slowly (unless you're "under the gun," like the Hive fork from Steem) simply because decision making by consensus takes longer than just asingle person/organization dictating how things are going to be done.
But much like @steevc, I get impatient with the lack of action sometimes.
"We also need to be careful (and this is NOT a criticism!) that we don't have so much content "about Hive" that the front page here comes across as irrelevant to anyone just driving by and who's not interested in blockchain, developing and cryptocyrrency... because that is a very tiny market niche."
...this.
A frustration of mine about Steem/Hive is the amount of trending content about Steem/Hive (and other Crypto). There's loads of other great content about but I've always felt I need to delve deep to find it. I'm a stubborn old mule so that's what I do but I imagine most would be put off by it.
I like sardines on toast so minnow on toast could be OK?
Oh that might be lunch tomorrow, Sardines, that is. Are minnows even edible?
I will share my 2 cents with you.
We have a few million un-employed university graduates here and I plan to Hive as many as I can.
Most of the projects mile stones were met, but there's a few outstanding issues to solve.
The good news is the we are doing this on our own and once running, the project will self generate its income.
The current strike rate of redfish converting to minnows is concerning and just maybe we can do some articles on the higher earnings of the Dolphins, aimed at the redfish audience?
We have to give them something to aim at.
Sounds like a great initiative you're working on - i think anything we can do to encourage redfish to power up a bit is most worthwhile!
Yep, totally agreed, but if they get bigger amounts of Hive, many of them keeps on powering down to spend, which doesn't help the building of Hive very much.
@mindshift wrote a very good post about it!
Oh they've always done that - the price of Hive depends on new people buying, powering up!
That's why we have to swing the carrot of higher earnings before them my friend.
Money is always a great motivator, as we all have an inherent part of greed within ourselves.
Hopefully when they become engaged, money will start to take a back-seat in the knowledge that it gradually and steadily grows due to their own actions on Hive.
Just my own take on this.
It is not looking great for my @tenkminnows project right now. It is supporting lots of redfish with some extra votes. I am seeing some signs of hope in certain areas where people are onboarding and helping out new users, but we need a lot more. Of course we lost some in the fork, but now is the time to ramp up recruitment. Hive Onboard is a useful tool for this, but we need to ensure that each new user gets at least enough delegation so they are not held back by lack of RCs.
If anything the lockdown ought to have helped with recruitment with a lot of people stuck at home and in search of extra income. We just lack the marketing resources to exploit the situation. There are some projects working on that too.
It is vital that we present a better face than Steem does these days. Their trending page is not going look great to non-Koreans and the vote buying going on there is out of control. Steemit's diary and shopping contests may give people excuses to post, but it's not exactly compelling content. We have some great people here who we need to support to show that quality matters. It really is up to all of us who want Hive to prosper to take some action. We all gain if it does.
There is a lot of good stuff going on here, the problem is the longer we just go sideways the more I feel like Karl Marx - he waited his whole life for the masses to see 'the bloody obvious and realize he was right'.
He died before that happened, and even then it didn't exactly work out like he'd planned!
NB I still think he was right about a lot of stuff.
I get frustrated by the lack of progress. Steem started over 4 years ago and there are still just a few thousand active people across both chains. We need many times more to be taken seriously. I do what I can to recruit, but my reach is very limited, so I am helping out others who are bringing in new users.
I guess we all have to do what we can, that's why I like the games that set up here - they're outward looking!
Games could be a way to bring people in. I was not really a gamer for years, but have got a bit hooked on Splinterlands.
I've had difficulty after losing our momentum from Steem.
Sorry to hear that, hopefully things will take a more positive turn in the second half of the year!
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Yeah things are starting to look better. Sorry I edited my comment. Thought I was being too negative. Ha.
I did finally get my replacement MOBO to get my rig back up that I used for SFR development so got that going for me which is nice. Lol
Nothing wrong with a bit of negativity if you ask me, as long as you don't too dragged down by it!
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I’m so happy to find out ☝️
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Possible room for optimism there I guess!
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Stats are slow although stable, crypto has had up's and down's, once people know what to do they normally learn to swim quickly, others sink not wishing to put in time learning a platform.
Those who arrive making the effort definitely need more support sitting on low earnings due to language barriers is tough.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 0/12)
Yes fair point I guess language barriers can hold people back - and maybe stability is a good sign??!
we need more dolphins!
Projects like @giftgiver is also delegating to redfishes just like @tenkminnows.
Its awesome, more of these projects is needed!
I agree, we need more 'downward looking support' - @curie and @ocd really kept me going when I was a newer account!
Thats good!
I would say it should be easier to be seen now with all of the different communities! And projects! :D
I’ve got to admit that this one may be some cause for concern since dolphins are the middle class, a key component of any society.
But I wonder if this is more than just a function of the divorce from Steem. Maybe the collapsing economy means some people had no choice but to power down so they could pay bills?
Yes fair point.
Maybe this is just real-world causes!
I'm still buying in gradually, irrational though that is!
The STEEM aspect of the experiment seemed to indicate that the token's primary use seemed destined as utility coin to drive dApps. Once the ad revenues are being shared on some sort of stake weighted basis then there need not be a great deal of content creators to keep the traffic flowing. In fact those with stake would probably want as few as possible sharing in the ad revenue reward pool.