In my last post on this subject I wrote about Bitcoin around 78K while SPS was hovering near all time low territory. Now we have more price action and the picture got clearer, even if it did not get prettier.
BTC dropped hard into the low 60K area while SPS pushed down into the 0.0032 to 0.0033 zone and is now trading below the support range I talked about before. This is exactly the type of stress test that tells us whether a token is basing or still bleeding.
The short version is simple: BTC is in correction mode, SPS is still in a long downtrend, and the market is still favoring majors over small cap altcoins.
BTC Sets the Tone
Bitcoin was carrying the market for months and a lot of altcoins were lagging, SPS included. That part was already true in the previous post, but this recent move confirms it even more.
From the chart perspective BTC looks like it broke out of the prior rising structure and is now in a high-volatility correction phase. You can see strong down candles, failed bounces, and lower highs forming after the peak zone. That is not what a clean continuation looks like.
I still do not think this automatically means the macro top is in for the whole cycle, but in the short term this is risk-off behavior.
What matters now for BTC:
- It needs to stabilize and build a higher low, not just bounce for a few days.
- It needs to reclaim broken levels with follow through.
- If it fails that, then we likely get more chop and downside pressure across alts.
As always, when BTC gets unstable, small caps usually suffer 2x to 5x more. SPS is showing exactly that.
SPS Broke the Line in the Sand
In the last post I highlighted the 0.0040 to 0.0042 area as a major support zone near all time lows. That level did not hold.
SPS is now around 0.0032 to 0.0033 and that is a technical breakdown, not just noise. This puts SPS in the major breakdown zone I mentioned previously.
The one year and multi-year charts still show the same core pattern:
- Lower highs
- Lower lows
- Weak rebounds
- Declining long-term momentum
So from a pure technical analysis perspective, this is still a bearish market structure for SPS.
Also important: relative strength against BTC continues to weaken.
Even with BTC correcting, SPS is underperforming badly over the same period. That is usually a sign that market participants still do not want to rotate into this type of risk yet.
Is SPS Dead? I Still Don’t Think So
This is the part where people split into two camps. One side says “it is over,” the other says “this is the bottom.” I am somewhere in the middle, just like in my previous post.
I do not see a dead chart in the classic sense. Dead charts usually show a straight collapse and then no meaningful trading activity, no bounce attempts, no participation. SPS still has periodic spikes, reactions to ecosystem news, and tradable swings. So structurally it still behaves like a live but very weak altcoin, not a delisted ghost coin.
At the same time, we have to be honest: the trend has not reversed. This is still survival mode.
For SPS to shift from bearish to neutral or bullish, we need actual evidence:
- A base that holds for months, not days
- A higher low after a meaningful bounce
- A break above prior swing highs with volume
- Better relative strength versus BTC
Until that happens, every bounce is just a bounce inside a bigger downtrend.
Final Word
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