I wonder how many people aped into Doge or Shiba Inu based on the hype and have got absolutely rekt over the last week or two. I was reading an article from Australia about a person who used 100 thousand from the sale of a family home to get into crypto at the height and is now asking about legislation protection, of which there is of course, none - "Due diligence" is the responsibility of the investor, most fail.
For me, I am glad I haven't yet quit my day job, but I am also glad that during this engineered bloodbath, I am still earning some yield, even though the value of the tokens I hold has taken a hammering. It means that every day, I will be able to buy the dip with some kind of value and increase my crypto stack.
Some people are in it for the money, so they will always be slaves to those who control the supply.
At some point, it will turn around, but as I was saying to some friends today, I am not sure if I can keep it up for another four years the way I have been, as I think my wife would quickly leave me. This dip was always expected, but I think that it is earlier than most have predicted and deeper than most assumed, including myself. But I also think that there is far more to it than a bear market and I am still hopeful that the real run to the peak is coming.
Until then, I will do what I have always done, hold.
But, I am pretty annoyed at myself as while there is no "perfect" play, I haven't played the markets anywhere near as well as I should have in the last couple weeks. This is not just "shoulda, coulda, woulda" it is more because I have been so inundated with other things I haven't had time or energy to spend on the markets, so I decided pretty early on that I would just ride it out. It has been a bit of a ride down so far, but I am hopping that the momentum will get it up the next hill.
What has been interesting to watch is that there has been a fair amount of support around the low thirties, which is in line with what I suspected there would be. I don't know how to read the markets, but it was around this level for Bitcoin that the hype train started to kick in, which means there were a lot of people entering into the markets and at around 30, they are at the break even point, so there is no point in selling, may as well buy. It is also a good point for those who sold at the top to buy back in and double up on their coin.
It might crash further, but I think that the floor is going to be significantly higher than the last lows and I don't think we are going to see 8000 dollars again anytime soon. I could be very wrong though.
If this was around the floor for now, I would be pretty content with where we are, considering Hive is up 300% from the start of the year, which is a pretty decent level considering the overall market performance and just about everything in the top 100 is down between 40 and 60% over the last 7 days. Which is pretty crazy considering the heights it was a few short weeks ago.
But, I am not completely dejected yet and I am looking long. Even though I say now "I don't think I can take another four years..." I also know, yes I can. However, I don't believe it is actually going to be four years from now as I think the markets are setting up for a move upward from near here, as this is crypto and people are impatient, even the institutions. They can taste the profits and power and they are in competition with each other, all vying to become the go to for the mass adoption phase.
There might be plenty to go around, but I put a lot of faith in the greed model of humanity, where we can only work together for so long before the competition breaks a union apart, even if it is in the best interest to stay together. This is actually one of the core benefits of Hive as a decentralized community, as while it is possible to work together for a common good, it is also possible to be in competition, for a common good.
And I think we are starting to see more of the competition between the legacy and the future economy now, and we have been found lacking, but we are also learning. These market manipulations drive development and innovation to strengthen the industry, as well as install new mechanisms to combat the manipulations in the future.
The industry market cap has lost 40% in the last week, but is still over 500% up since this time last year - which is incredible in and of itself and I think, there is more to come. I remember from about the same time of the year back in 2017, Bitcoin, ran up to near 3000 and then dropped back to something like 1800, with a lot of people calling it dead. Though as history remembers, six months later it was at an ATH, 10x up on the dip. If bitcoin was to do the same from here today, it would be a little over 300 thousand dollars, which is in line with many of the predictions over the last six months.
How often are predictions right though?
I don't know, but rather than be annoyed at not playing my best game, I will keep playing and see if I can up my game.
Luckily, I still have my day job.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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and I am glad you do Taraz. Even I have my day job :)
Many people ask me why. I typically answer them truthfully.
Yesterday, I ordered a new personal laptop. My older one is getting beyond any usage, it is 11 years old. This new laptop is nice, fancy, fast, and not expensive at all, only $750. I am typing this on my new laptop, it feels nice! The reason I am writing this, if I didn't have my job, no matter how confident I am on my crypto portfolio, I wouldn't be buying a laptop using one-touch on Amazon, right? I bought it last night and they delivered it at my front door this AM. That is amazing service by the way!
Again, my point is, we have a family to raise, so we need passive, active and wage based earnings, all 3 at the same time. There will be a time, when I will quit my day job; it could be next month; or it could be five years from now. However, I do enjoy having the safety net.
The safety net has been really important for me over the last years, which is why I took the job as an employee on top of my own company, as it brought in that monthly paycheck, which isn't based on how much hustle I do or, whether a company needs training or not.
It is funny to think about the equipment that a lot of crypto people have, as it is generally older than what "normal" people have. investor mindset :)
The last computer I bought for myself was a desktop in the days of my daughter's birth, as mine dies just after and I need it for my work. It was an interesting few days building my first PC while my daughter was in intensive care, but it was cheaper and that mattered.
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Regarding personal computer equipment, I have seen that over and over again with crypto people. I typically don't need a personal computer, I just use my office issued one. But with so many browser based wallets and extensions making the personal computer a need rather than a want.
Yesterday afternoon, my younger daughter dropped my laptop the second time, the hinge corresponding the one side of the lid was broken for a while. Yesterday after the drop, the lid got detached from the body with a crack. The things still works though! But my older daughter said; Dad you are embarassing me, if you work on that thing in front on me!! I keeled over :)
I use my work PC occasionally for basic things, , but have no wallets installed on it.
Parents used to be embarrassing for their clothes and bad jokes, now it is about not having new enough gadgets :D
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5 or more years from now this dip will just be one of the many fluctuations that did not change anything :)
When in doubt, zoom out!
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More like go out. Nature is beautiful. And sometimes it is good to take a break from technology to clear your mind.
That’s the spirit!
Maybe except the investing mood of many people.
Probably a lot of people's wallets got destroyed by the cryptocurrency crash in the recent 1-2 weeks.
The more fluctuations like this (this was very big), the more people will lose their trust in cryptocurrency.
And if many people lose their trust in cryptocurrency, then that is not good for the mass adoption of cryptocurrency.
But anything can happen in 5 years. Nothing is certain. No one see the future.
Just wait for these people to start realizing that their fiats are worth nothing once the high inflation rates start to kick in. There is much more in play than just the speculative value of crypto to fiat IMO :)
I would rather say there will be, because nowadays apart from a few exceptions cryptocurrency is only speculation and gambling for most people. And also a lot of people are in because of the hype.
I started to play outside the Hive game today. When Hive hit that .90 cent I sold a small part, bought back a few at around 40 and the rest sat over on Ionomy. Today over on Ionomy I made my first LTC and BNB buys. I only had 12.50 worth of funds so nothing real big, but still dipping my little toe in the other crypto games.
I think now is a good time for some alter action, at least I am buying in the red zone hoping to make it to the green zone, we will see com middle of June, and in three weeks I think, (purely hopium think), that Hive will be back over $0.75 and closing back on a dollar.
That is pretty cool! I think in the next 6-8 months, there will be a fair bit of upward movement in the markets before there is a new opportunity to buy this low again. Don't take this as any kind of advice though:)
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Nope we all have to make our own choices. I was happy I was able to put a little into Ionomy after I sold that little bit. I was not happy to see my Ionomy account go from 23 to 12 dollars though, but I know it will all go back up eventually.
Like I mentioned a few months ago I still think June and HF 25 are going to be the telling direction for Hive, and I am hoping to earn a bit more before the next big climb.
If your goal is the follow the money, you'll never catch it, because that wasn't part of the plan. That's just an oversimplified version of a series of thoughts I keep with me everywhere I go.
I've been done with this madness for years. The goal is to let/make the money come to me. Buying at the top is following the money and that requires a mindset that existed before the top. Buying into a token, then holding on, thinking like magic someone's going to come and invest, almost as a favor to those holding to help get them out of a jam, is following the money. Coming here as a skilled musician for example, then putting it down because it appears as if the votes go to crypto content, is following the money. I rarely see success when people follow the money.
Looking forward to that day I've talking about for years. The one we're in control of. Where actions yield results. Utilizing what we have to offer and attracting outside money that is not tied to some of this zaniness in the cryptosphere, at all. You know what I'm talking about, and it's far more complex than a simple explanation in a few sentences, so I'm not going to get into it. Things that are out of my control don't appeal to my mindset. That's all. I don't expect the nails to pound themselves. But I see the nails, the plans, and the tools. I can do a lot with that.
Unfortunately, I'm well aware of the fact I can't do it alone. So I share in that sense of powerlessness many in this world do their best to mask.
Followers end up where they are led.
Part of the reason is that you look wide enough to realize this, while many people focus on individual posts, building a false narrative of consistency, without seeing that it is like their facebook feed, curated out of a million possible data points. "Why is this person so heavily rewarded" even if it was one post out of the last 100 that got the rewards.
Sense of powerlessness and being powerless, are two different things. It is the instilled sense that holds us back.
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Awesome post. Totally agree with the nicety of being able to put more money into the market when I hold and it drops... and drops... and drops... And I hold... and it drops... and I hold... and it drops some more...
Having money coming in from another source makes it possible to regain the advantage in a market that's looking rough (as is the current state). At least, if we're holding long term. When holding long, no matter what price we started losing at, the market will probably swing back and return there at some point.
As long as we're making perennial buys as it drops, when it returns we'll come out far ahead. Even if it ONLY returned to the same price as we made a massive misjudgement and forgot to plant some much needed "trigger-orders" for safety.
I guess it's at that point where someone who was day trading highs and lows suddenly starts calling themselves a HODLR. LOL. :) So, I agree... It sure is nice to have more money to put in.
Also note...
I totally agree with you though. Crypto is here to stay and is permeating the public sphere.
Some 19% of people in the UK,
14% of people in the U.S.,
and 13% of people in Australia own a type of cryptocurrency at the moment...
Plus, close to 90% of the population is aware of cryptocurrency's existence—which is a huge stride up.
Governments like the Chinese government have stated publicly that blockchain technology will be one of the major components to increasing their strength as a global power.
I think we're just getting started. Tell you're wife not to leave you yet. She'll be appreciating all your hard work, faith, and efforts a lot in the coming years.
Btw... Hope you're having fun with the home renovation!!!
Many feel the risk in doing this, as they are always hoping for it to drop lower. If you believe in the long-term vision, if it eventuates, the gains will be good enough.
Hopefully, I can get her a kitchen ;D
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@tarazkp should buy his wife some coffee or tea with his Wirex crypto card. Then all of a sudden this magical internet money becomes very real.
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Hahaha! :D Very true!
When the weather gets warmer I'm going to resume my crypto date tradition with @laputis, my wife.
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What tradition is that?
Tradition is to buy her coffee with crypto Wirex or Binance debit card.
That is a great idea! Can I borrow it and use it on my own wife? I think she'd love it. :)
I aped into buying Doge, used the profits to trade other alts. Can't say I got rekt though. I see Doge, regardless of how insane it is, to be a lot saner than Shiba Inu and the likes.
I don't know much about market trends, I haven't studied them enough, however, I have a gut feeling about another ATH coming this year. Hive has to get to $1 this year, at least!
Just a gut feeling, no historical backing.
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People buy at the top remember, often inexperienced people who get in on hype. Not everyone loses in a Ponzi scheme either. :)
True
If it crashes further I consider it oversold territory. We are right now at the levels we where before all the crazy BS happened where people where dumping in money because of wallstreetbets, Elon and hype around companies buying into it.
Sure these things are great for hype and pumping things but if that's the only reason it becomes ballooned and over bought and will come crashing down to the levels or below the levels of before that all happened.
Bitcoin this time last year was $9,000 still up 3x most people right now are thinking short term still. So what do we do? Accumulate the heck out of it and wait for the next rally.
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Yep. I think the wallstreetbets thing brought in a new type of fool into the market and some of them got rich off the meme coins, many got rekt.
Accumulation is the name of the game :)
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I remember a couple of months ago when I was writing about my 1 000 000 Satoshi milestone. I was able to get to more than 2 000 000 now this past week... Although it's kind of worth the same when measured in fiat currency.
No, I never know where things might be going, but I can afford to be wrong because of fiat income. The alternative to the alternative. The one that is, in a way, more common and easier to get.
I missed the right moment to convert some crypto into pizza, though...Perhaps next May.
But, who cares about fiat... ;D
Everyone loves pizza day.
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Selling your house is alright if you have a backup plan, or like 3 houses, and if you do it to buy in during these dips. If someone does it then buys the ATH, I can only shrug and say “sucks”. Not like I have no compassion but any ounce of responsibility would have told them “this is a bad idea”, so lesson learned, hopefully.
I don’t really know what’s going to happen, I think it’s basically up to the whales and institutions, but I think there are enough of them that see the benefits of getting in now and re-legitimizing the space. I don’t think we’d ever go below $20k or cease this long term uptrend unless every major country and bank in the world got together to destroy btc. Not impossible but not likely.
I suspected a drop like this when I saw Doge hit number 4. That’s the kind of stupid shit that happens right before a crash but I think this will be a very short bear market, short enough to stay on the 4 year cycle or to have our first supercycle.
I think they are going to try in various ways, if they can't take control for themselves.
I think this bull is far from over, but I am terrible at predicting markets :)
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It is the perfect time to stake and compound everything you have in the crypto market.
Thank you for this article.
Peace
Just be careful where you put it, and the fees associated.
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same here, as crypto imcome varies wildly anywhere between 3 to 30k monthly. i still keep a main job, a real on, as i do not dare to pull the trigger. yet. i am thinking to do it 3-4 years from now. but until then, i accumulate.
3-4 years from now and I think I would be in the position that I could quit - but I don't see myself not working.
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same here, it is just that i will either have a baby and spend time growing him/her up or i will do a charity of some sorts (i think something to support young geniuses without posibilities to learn/train, got the whole plan)
I try to keep many irons in the fire. I have my freelance writing and my tutoring. I have my etsy shop and my local alterations. I have a variety of crypto. I have cash in my underwear drawer and beans in my pantry. After 57 years and 6 children, I know anything could happen at any time and I will not be surprised. !BEER
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The best way to mitigate volatility. Nothing is guaranteed in this life, other than it will end at some point, but it doesn't mean we can't be better prepared until then.
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Hopefully that guy who took the 100k just holds on and he likely won't be so upset anymore. I get what you are saying about the whole 4 year thing. This past year has been really intense and I am not sure I can do for the long haul. That isn't to say that I am going to get out of crypto. I guess it is hard to explain in a short comment. I think I understand where you are coming from though.
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I wonder if he panic sold.
Yeah, I am not gettng out of crypto ever I suspect - but i will eventually change my approach.
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I feel the same way. I don't see myself ever leaving fully, but I think there will be a day when I am much less active and it is all just passive stuff taking place in the background.
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I still have part time day job and my own business for day to day cash flow. Without it crypto world wouldn't be as accessible to me right now. And I would have much less peace of mind than I have.
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I think you are among the most sensible in regards to income flows :)
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I think I have been here before and regreted not taking profit before, and again now. I think I will be ready the third time. Yes, I too am lucky I still have my day job.
:(
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Third time is a charm!
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Mine fiat at your day job so you can DCA into crypto...at least that's how I see it 🤣
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Exactly!
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Enjoy the ride!
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