The accelerating pace of technology is often overlooked. This is something that shows up in the economic productivity numbers, even though the impact is under represented.
In this video I discuss how the last 20 years saw half the world's wealth generated. This will be eclipsed over the next 20 years, perhaps by an order of magnitude. We have to fact in the deflationary nature of technology and both dematerialization/miniturization that takes place.
▶️ 3Speak
I think people forget how fast we are developing new technology. The aeroplane was invented in 1903. Before then the idea of people flying was just a dream. Within the same century not only did we have it available commercially, but we were able to send people into outer space. The internet was a breakthrough in sharing information across the globe, the smartphones were able to put complex computers in the palm of our hands. Quantum computing and AI can speed these up even further. We might be heading into a future depicted in movies faster than we anticipate.
Another important point is how long it took those technologies to go from concept to mainstream adoption. 1903 for the plane but how long until air travel was common (and safe)? The 1950s?
I think we've been making leaps and bounds from concept to mainstream throughout the years. The technology in 1903 was still pretty basic, and even by 1950s it still wasn't that good. The concern of safety on top of costs really pushed back the mainstream adoption. If we compare it to something relatively safe like mobile phones, it was around 1979 for the concept, and 1983 was the first mainstream one. The succeeding improvements have been consistent and quick.
Generative AI almost came out of nowhere. Looking it up, it was around 2014 where advancements towards it were noted. GPT-1 was in 2018, GPT-2 in 2019, and then Image generation followed in 2021. It was like 3 years for simple text to image improvement in generative AI. And by the rate they are able to train them, their learning speed in other things like coding will only get better.
Things are moving at a scary fast pace, and most people don't even realize how exponential the growth is! The world needs UBI now more than ever to offset the widening gap in wealth generation between the owning class and the working class.
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