Messari: Billions of XRP are Falsely Included in Circulating Supply

in #ripple5 years ago

Excerpt:
Recent report from crypto data startup Messari estimates that the true market capitalization and circulating supply of the digital asset XRP is significantly less than what data sources currently present.

While Messari Research argues that XRP’s supply is likely to be overstated, meaning that billions of coins are included there falsely, we’ve prepared comprehensive Ripple guide, so that you can gain the full understanding of how the whole system works, what’s so special about XRP and how Ripple drives innovations and technological progress, before coming to your own conclusion regarding this latest report.

As depicted on data providers like CoinMarketCap as well as Ripple – the distributed ledger tech company closely linked to the digital asset – XRP’s circulating supply is pegged at roughly 41 billion tokens. But in its report, Messari posits that of that figure, 19.2 billion XRP “may be illiquid or subject to significant selling restrictions” tied to daily trading volume, including “at least 6.7 billion XRP” held by Ripple co-founder Jed McCaleb that are subject to an agreement between him and Ripple.

They wrote:
“If history is a guide, Ripple is due to disclose its Q4 2018 transparency report this week. In advance of that report, we conducted extensive research into the health and legitimacy of the currently quoted XRP "market cap” available on third party crypto data services and exchanges. We believe the figure is significantly overstated.

We acknowledge that some of the estimates in this report lack precision, but believe they are directionally correct, and presented in good faith. We look forward to Ripple’s response, and will update this report accordingly if and when they do reply.”

According to Messari, Ripple co-founders Arthur Britto and Chris Larsen "could have similar selling restrictions on their multi-billion dollar XRP allocations," though it has not included these in its analysis.

"Combined, these holdings means 19.2 billion of the 41.0 billion XRP currently quoted as “in circulation” may be illiquid or subject to significant selling restrictions," the report authors wrote.

They added:

"In reality, this estimate may prove to be conservative, as they belie XRP trading volumes which have consistently fallen well below that of EOS and litecoin, two crypto-assets whose current referenced market caps are a mere 17% and 15% of XRP’s, respectively. In addition, we believe the actual amount of 'restricted' XRP in distributions to investors, banking partners, and team member may be significantly higher than our initial estimates reflect."

XRP is seen trading at $0.318 at the time of writing. The largest altcoin is still creeping lower with a loss of 1% on the day. XRP witnessed a seven-day loss of approximately 3.2%. Moreover, in the last three months, the digital asset has plunged by 15.99%. XRP is the world largest crypto after Bitcoin (BTC) with a market cap of $12.9 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $348 million.

Since XRP community is quite active on social media, the Messari’s report shared by its founder, Ryan Selkis captured the attention of major crypto indices and wider XRP enthusiasts. While Ripple’s spokesperson calls Messari’s statement as unrealistic, on the other hand, Ryan Selkis said that they’ve already reached Ripple’s team to verify the report. Having said this, there wasn’t any response to the report before it was published.

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Based on the thesis that billions of XRP have been distributed to people and entities who are contractually restricted from selling them at will, the researchers warn that the XRP cryptocurrency may face “persistent sell-side pressure,” above and beyond what has been publicly disclosed by the Ripple company and its affiliates.

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The generally accepted method of calculating capitalization does not give a correct assessment, since the principle of operation of different coins also varies and applying the same method to them is at least incorrect. Not all coins are in circulation, many simply quietly lie in users' wallets, while the conventional 20-30% of the entire issue is traded and form the price of a single coin, and with it the capitalization. But most likely most of it lies in ripla, or on the stock exchanges, but still belongs to riplu. Riphl definitely owns about 50-60 billion, which, as it were, are locked up, but they are no longer taken into account in capitalization, although they used to be taken into account. But those in the market are not all sold out. They seem to be in the market, but this does not mean that they are sold ...

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