Artificial intelligence is a fascinating topic and is quickly becoming integrated into every piece of technology from Smart Phones to refrigerators.
While not everyone cares about the inner details of AI I really recommend reading this two-part article I will mention in a bit. The impact AI will have on our species will be larger than you can possibly dream of.
When most people think of AI, they think iRobot and Skynet, but as you can see from recent technology announcements, it will be integrated into every aspect of our lives. AI will be used to solve problems you never knew existed. In fact, many instances of AI you won't even recognize as AI.
To understand the true meaning of this, you need to understand a little more about the levels of AI.
Levels of AI
- Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
- Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
This is your typical AI that plays chess and your typical learning thermostat. It is built for one purpose and it is very good at that one thing. If you were to take a chess AI and have it play checkers, it wouldn't have a clue what to do.
Almost all AI we have today fall under this category. It is the easiest to built and solves most problems it is built for reasonably well. ANI is typically trained by throwing lots of data at a model and having it learn the difference between the solution and the wrong answers.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
We are already now in the future. We have not solved this level of AI.
While ANI is very focused on one task, AGI is able to adapt to almost any task thrown at it. This is the type of AI you typically see in movies. We have yet to figure this out due to how our current AI solutions work today.
When you build an AI you need to train it on hundreds of thousands of samples or even millions to get a reasonable (80%+) success rate. The more training you give it, the more accurate it can become.
The problem with this process is you are only training it to solve one problem. We currently don't have a way to train a robot to be good at everything and adapt to problems like a human can. Like most computer programs, an AI is only as good as the developer makes it.
Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)
This is likely the end of the world depending on the motivation of the person developing it. ASI is the point where artificial intelligence is smarter than we are at everything. This could be the difference between a Harvard graduate and a typical college or could be the difference between Steven Hawking and a potato.
The thing is, once we get to this level, the growth will become exponential. The smarter you are, the faster you learn. As AI becomes smarter, it will be able to get even smarter faster. If for example, we develop an AI that is five times smarter than us today, in a month it may become ten times smarter than us, and in a year a thousand. At these, levels the most complex problems we face may become trivial. Solving aging, cancer, and AIDS may become as simple as solving a beginner Sudoku.
The problem we face is how the AI is bound. If you watched Robocop, you will remember the robot had certain Prime Directives to follow.
- Serve the Public Trust
- Protect the innocent
- Uphold the law
- Any attempt to arrest a senior officer of OCP results in shutdown
These directives sound well and good and are obviously well-thought-out and appear to be for the greater good. What happens when a superior intelligence realizes humanity is the biggest threat to the innocent?
The two-part article I am going to recommend goes into a scenario like that with a robot designed to be the best Handwriting robot in the world. This simple and apparently harmless goal becomes far more dangerous than you will imagine.
There is a famous two-part article on The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence by Tim Urban. I recommend this article all the time to people interested in AI and it is a really great read. It varies in complexity throughout the article, you can skim over the more complicated portions you don't feel comfortable with. If you read nothing at all, I recommend reading the story about Turry The Handwriting Robot in Part 2 to get a good idea of where I'm going with this.
There are interesting directions that a sufficiently open and intelligent mind can take this kind of information.
One example, a thought that popped into my head, seemingly out of nowhere: what if there really is no such thing as death (of any kind), and what I've so far accepted without question to be proof of at least a "material death" (a "body dying") is, itself, a type of ruse designed into this "universe" or "program" that I'm experiencing right now?
Call it a variant of "solipsistism" if you're so inclined, I'm sure you'll agree if you give it enough thought that there's really no way of being 100 percent certain that the so called "reality" that you seem to be a subject to is really anything like it appears, and when you take in information like what was presented in this article, which essentially says in so many words that ASI is an inevitability once a sufficient amount of advancement in intelligence (evolution) has occurred, then it seems obvious to me that we should almost expect that ASI has ALREADY HAPPENED and that the world we live in is the one supplied to us through it's (probably more appropriate to refer to this program as "It" with a capital "t", or better yet, "God") "intelligent design".
It seems more reasonable to me that I'm living in a world akin to the move "The Matrix" given this new information on how powerful such an intelligent entity could, and likely WOULD (given enough time to teach itself to learn better), become. Think about it, what are the odds that, in the last infinite amount of time that occurred (before we find ourselves here, in this moment), an ASI hasn't already been achieved and "set loose" (either intentionally or unintentionally) by some super-advanced species of this universe, or some other universe that we aren't aware exists because we're locked into this virtual reality world that they (or It) has created for us?
Who knows to what purpose this might serve, locking some amount of consciousness (or the experience of being a "conscious being") into this virtual existence, maybe none at all. Perhaps this is a meaningful simulation to help It determine optimizations for the next "universe" that It is to have a conscious being explore? Maybe the program is simply "fucking around" or having the equivalent of what we'd call "playing Sim City"? It's possible that we couldn't conceive It's real motivations, because, well, we're humans and It is beyond any human conceptions of "God".
I can't even imagine where a mind like Einstein's could take this, let alone an entity that is magnitudes more intelligent. This is right up there with trying to conceive what "nothingness" or "non-existence" (would be like)/ (is), which essentially causes my mind to, almost literally, shut-off... not quite, but close.
If you are what happened to you're??? Is this the hip new way to do it now?
ยฏ\_(ใ)_/ยฏ
Oops i pressed wrong button! aww!
https://imgflip.com/i/3eucrl
Really interesting times and I cannot wait to see what quantum computing will do for us. If you ever read the book Dune, there is an AI plante where they are all enslaved and live underground, then there is a rebellion. Idk this is what I imagine but I think it will be a interesting future for sure.
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Quantum computing is going to be a game-changer. It may very well trivialize every known encryption protocol we know of.
Saw this interesting Youtube video last night about coupling AI and Quantum computer. There's a brief introduction of each, and then talk about how they amplify when paired together.
Generally, the sense that current AI technologies 'learn' by view individual attempts / iterations / experiences one at a time -- but once/if (maybe not "if", anymore) quantum computers get powerful enough, an AI would be able to view essentially all possible outcomes simultaneous, and learn in an instant.
Very compelling, yet frightening at the same time. Doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies when I look at historical context in how advances in tech are leveraged.
There is a type of AI that puts two AIs against each other (GANS).
One tries to forge content (pretending to be original) and second tries to detect if it is real or forgery. Say for example you take original Picasso paintings and then an AI learns how to mimic the style and submits its work to another AI that verifies if it is an original or a fake. You repeat this enough times both AIs get better at doing their job but eventually, the fakes start to very closely mimic the originals to the point even humans can't tell the difference.
Quantum computing can take this to the next level and we could have AIs that can become their own Mozart.
Really fascinating, but when you start looking at AI that is smarter than us by a factor of 1,000, you really got to start considering Skynet scenarios. Right now we don't have the technology or the algorithms.
Enjoyed that, have a massive 100% from me - "Steven Hawking and a potato." โฌ ๏ธ that tickled me... ๐คฃ
I'll have a look at this two articles tomorrow
As a software engineer myself (though not an expert in AI by any means), I remain unconvinced that AGI is just around the corner. Quantum computing may very well be a game changer in that regard but there's still the problem of creating the software that makes it possible.
That is a comforting bit of information to hear, now that I've read half of the first article provided in this post. I can't help but hope there is a limit, not an infinite upward curve, to what a machine can know. The proof is in the feelings - can a computer ever know those? I hope not. And I hope humans do not come to the day when we no longer find feelings of value.
AGI is going to take some time, no question. Once we get there ASI will literally be "around the corner". Right now almost all our AI is focused on one task and do it well. The step to all tasks is a huge leap and all efforts we have now are very focused on one task type of training.
I'm not even sure ASI would be around the corner though I understand the argument. I guess the question for me is how much more computing power would an ASI require over an AGI? If it's not much, then sure, it would be right around the corner. If it's orders of magnitude more, then it will take a while. I think there may be some physical constraints that limit the speed at which that happens.
The thing is, with AGI it can solve problems it wasn't trained on and becomes more human-like in that it can adapt to any problem thrown at it. With the raw processing power of endless computing, it can perform far better and faster than humans (although not smarter, that's when it turns into ASI). In other words, it can play out more scenarios faster than we can.
Wow! This is a very good post. How do you get this knowledge to write?
I am very interested in learning / being updated about this stuff.
Very good post.
I have a lot of interests. I just write about what interests me and try to mix it up so it's not always about the same stuff.
Usually, when I'm lucky, I have an idea for the day some days I got to struggle to come up with something.
Good stuff! Need to pick some things from you. In addition, I like the way you presented.
I have another question. How did you italicize the title with a different font?
I use the spell Engorgio. Surely you have seen Harry Potter?
Engorgio sounds like an of brand Pfizer product
๐๐ฝ'๐ผ ๐ญ๐ช๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฌ
I've always been dark, not very magical though. :D
Vฬตฬอฬฐฬฬฅอออฬฬฏฬชฬจฬฌอฬงฬชอฬฆฬปฬงeฬทฬฝอฬฝอฬจฬฬฬงrฬดฬฬฝฬอ อ ฬอฬออออฬฟฬออออฬyฬธฬ ออฬอฬฬฬฬฬฬฟออออฬออฬอฬฑฬงฬณฬฏฬนฬฑออ ฬผออฬฆอฬผอฬ ฬดฬฬฬออฬฬฬออฬdฬทอออฬฬออฬฬอฬฬฃอฬฬผฬฬญฬฬอ ฬปฬฎฬฏฬอฬฬฬคฬ aฬธฬอฬฟอฬฬพฬอออออฬอออออฬฑอrฬถฬพฬฬฟฬอฬฬฬอฬอฬอฬฬฬ ฬอฬกฬขฬฐออฬฅฬจฬงฬชฬฃkฬถอฬพอฬออฬพฬฝฬฬออออฬฬฉอ ฬขฬผฬฬฅ
What if you are a Cat in a Tub?
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Tantalizing post.
I don't agree on the slope.
The main point is as technology advances, it starts to accelerate rapidly (nearly exponentially).
If we developed a super AI that is 1x our intelligence, within a short time it will be 2x, then 10x, then 50x, then 1000x, and so on.
The chart represents the entire timeline of the human species. If you think about it, most of the real technology we have developed has been in the last couple hundred years.
As a species, we have been around for 315,000 years, but only the last 50,000 years represent what you would consider modern man.
The amount of technology and advancement in the next 100 years will dwarf the first 50,000 just like the next 5 years will likely dwarf the last 20-50. The relationship between those numbers over time will get even more ridiculous.
That's why I meant that we are probably already in the slope and not before it.
But we can't forget that as it goes up, it easily stagnates as well.
Especially AI, AI is stagnating for a long time already. The AI we are building at the moment are the same we're building for a while just with more processing power.
Similarly, quantum computers might be ready for commercial shipping relatively soon already, but until we understood for what they're good a long time might pass still.
And, the more the society becomes resistant to change, they can slow this down strongly and might bring us to a more modern type of "medieval area" similar to the technological expansion we saw in the antique which was then stopped for a long time by religion.
AI is still moving along pretty fast, but not at exponential levels and it is still limited to very focused tasks (which is a big problem for real progress).
New techniques are coming out daily but they mostly are coming out solving the same problems, just faster and more accurately.
Society is eating up AI, it is being integrated into almost every device developed these days and businesses are focusing on AI to solve tons of problems and reduce costs dramatically. I don't buy society is resisting the change, quite the opposite.
Oh, not yet. But eventually, when even more people don't have jobs because AIs take over and we move in the same direction with the "fuck them" attitude, they will.
Meh, I read quite a lot into AI research. What is changing are the applications they come up with the techniques exist already for a long time (at least in the scientific community).
I find it amusing that God may not YET exist... until ASI is achieved by us mortals.
Imagine if the goal given to the AI that eventually achieves ASI and becomes the "singleton" (eliminating any AI competition for supremacy) is to "be as powerful and all-knowing as possible", how absolutely devastating that outcome would likely be for us humans, and any other current life forms for that matter.
What would this new "big bang" look like a year after ASI is achieved? A decade? A "Marvel Universe" may only be a few decades away! But why stop there?
The body is mortal, human consciousness is eternal, until maybe the universe get's a the big crunch event and shrinks down into nothing again smaller than an atom. (That we haven't even seen)
I don't know any way of confirming whether HUMAN consciousness (specifically) is eternal or not, but I get the sense (for no particular logical reason, it seems) that CONSCIOUSNESS along some spectrum of awareness, intelligence and "knowingness" is always present in some form for at least as long as there is a universe of distinct materials. In other words, I'm convinced that consciousness is as much a law of matter as are any other laws that we've uncovered such as gravity or the laws of thermodynamics, etc.
If we're to assume that what I believe about consciousness is true, it would logically follow that the purpose of our existence (as bodies of some species, housing differing levels of consciousness) is to evolve to the point of knowing all there is to know about the whole of consciousness (or the combined potential knowledge of the collective "conscious matter" that is dispersed throughout the universe). And, if this is true then it would make sense to use everything in our power to devise solutions like Advanced Super-Intelligent programs to help us make a leap in that general direction (to understand all there is to know about the universe and consciousness).
And, if what the linked article of OP is correct about what an Artificial Super-Intelligence (ASI) could reasonably achieve, then such an AI might be the "bridge" to bringing all that collective knowledge together into one distinctive "super-mind", as such a super-intelligent entity could conceivably devise a way to squeeze every bit of information out of every atom of matter in existence, or to slice into just enough matter to uncover that level of detail (it may only take analyzing a single atom to derive all information if consciousness is holographic in nature).
Thanks. Very interesting read! Turry was a scary example of what can happen especially when the robot doesn't know what it is doing to other living beings. One mile stack of handwritten papers by Turry's replicas? Phew!
I always used to think that AI could lead us to Terminator kind of situation (bad) or Star Trek (the space scanning computer on board the Enterprise) kind of situation which is obviously good. But humans merging with AI is next level thinking. That's like the character Vision in Avengers movie (sorry can't stop relating to movies :)).
Whatever it is, I believe the day of ASI is inevitable. What happens after that? Well, let's wait and watch.
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We don't have to merge with it, but we can use the machines of course, can do machines a million times faster and our human mind can produce another million gadgets. But the machines will never be conscious
That was a fantastic read. Thanks for the link.
Imagine we create ASI and it tells us that God exists. That'd be fun :)
Creation is a Happening, but if it exist who knows, depends on the definition of exist, but life and source of creation is a reality is something we can observe, and source of creation is clearly the creator
For years I had this grief that something significant is missing in my life, after reading this most innovative post I feel extremely fortunate and now I have no desires left. My life is complete and blessed.
Thanks for sharing!
I recognized the drawing from wait but why :D one of my favorite blogs out there :)
I honestly should read their other stuff, not sure that I have. I always loved this post though, and have gone back to it a few times.
Nice analysis
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