Last Week
Things were looking good until the coinbase from a block of the very early bitcoin days was spent. It created a good deal of fud, but I think most fears are unfounded and we will rebound. But who knows.
Prices and Funds
BTC = 9542.53 -> 9184.42
ETH = 199.55 -> 203.55
Starting Funds: 10000
Strategy I: Full $
10335.91 -> 10337.53
Strategy II: Full BTC
10200.97 -> 9818.15
Strategy III: My Analysis
14932.84 -> 13744.13
Strategy IV: My Analysis including Ethereum
8993.52 -> 9663.54
Strategy
Bitcoin has crashed again, but the analysis still finds no reason to change course. At least ethereum is up a bit allowing my second strategy to recover somewhat. We stay long and hope for a better week.
I will remain careful for the next few weeks until we have more post halving data. I still report the results as they are computed.
Please note that this is not financial advice. I am just testing some statistical methods and documenting them here. Everyone has their own situation that prefers more or less risk. Everyone has their own goals. Without knowing these there is no way to find the right investment plan for YOU.
My test strategies for the week are:
Strategy I: Full $ @ 0.81% annual interest
Strategy II: Full BTC @ 0.14% annual interest
Strategy III: My Analysis
Long Bitcoin 211.5% @ 0.14% annual interest
Strategy IV: My Analysis including Ethereum
Long ETH 251.3% @ 0.01% annual interest
Short Bitcoin 35.9% @ 3.45% annual interest
Again these would be good if there were no massive event unknown to the analysis. But with the halving just finished we can see larger than normal moves; stay safe!