Portfolio
This month I further sold another portion of my holdings. All the transactions are below:
It seems like I managed to perfectly predict recent rally. Right now, everyone still expects a correction. In my opinion, it's very likely we will contunue going up without any major corrections, and brake the ATH before the halving.
When it comes to the macro, it's getting quite overheated and it becomes apparent that we are entering the final stage of a bull market. The main metric that I am now looking at is longterm supply in profit.
Rising price, along with decreasing longterm supply in profit has been a marker of every single BTC final rally.
What it means (in short) is basically that longterm holders are heavily dumping on the price going up.
Right now, I'm not looking to sell any more crypto until I can see a stedy decline of this metric.
Besides, I think that monitoring realized cap hodl waves can be very educational. Some RHODL spans are in fact at levels of 2021 top!
So, to summarize
My plan and market view remains unchanged. I think we will continue going upwards up until (around) time of the halving, and then we will see a really prolonged bear market, fcking everyone who thinks this bull market will last until 2025 - that's in fact 90% of retail, so it's completely obvious for me it's not gonna happen. Retail is in complete denial.