I've been writing for some time about the preparations for No Deal Brexit, such as ports expanding their capacities and businesses shifting their supply chains.
It now looks certain that there will be No Deal before March 29th 2019. As Theresa May said, we're at a impasse. What is surprising is how little preparation other countries have done, apart from the Dutch.
Apparently Ireland have said they'll hire extra customs officers to be in place by 2020. But they need to be in place for six months time. France also seems to have done practically no preparations, clearly believing that the British will cave at the last minute.
What they don't seem to realise is that the EU's style of negotiating, leaving everything to the last minute, plays into the hands of the No Dealers. Because as long as "negotiations" are happening, Parliament won't intervene, and the clock will just run down.
How soon will the markets realise that No Deal is on the cards? Lots of people are expecting just the UK markets to react, but as the image above shows, it affects the Europeans as well.
Some 22 banks have acquired eurozone licences (out of 150 foreign banks operating out of London - the rest have decided the cost isn't worth the business). HSBC, Deutsche bank and Barclays have transferred some of their euro derivatives business to the European based Eurex clearing house (away from the London Clearing House). The UK has passed legislation to ensure that on our end things like derivatives and insurance contracts will still be valid, but the EU has not done anything on their side.
Pharmaceutical companies have started stockpiling, and others have switched their supply chains. BMW mini has brought forward it's annual maintenance (when it shuts the plant for three weeks) to April from the summer, so that they can cope with the transition easier.
The financial markets seem calm so far - I don't think they'll start reacting till the new year. If households are to make preparations, they'd be better off doing it now while everything is calm. Just buy a few extra tins on your weekly shop and you should have enough to last you for a few weeks on Brexit Day.
This is going to be a massive experiment on how resilient modern economies (and the UK) are. Given that countries cope with things like hurricanes and other disasters and recover, the UK in theory should be able to cope with exiting a treaty.