Rumors swirl that China’s Xi Jinping will step down amid harsh COVID lockdowns
Step down? No. To enable all concerned to save face, they will have him finish out his term and simply vote him out. A "quiet, bloodless coup," if you will. That way, since he will have served the same two terms as every other Chinese president, the entire state apparatus can simply deny there was any infighting and claim it was the normal political process. The next administration will come in and reverse everything Xi did while claiming to be "building on his legacy," just as Xi reversed everything Deng did while claiming to be building on his thinking.
At least, IF there is any change in the regime, that's how it will come: in a way that China can deny it was a regime change at all.
Did I mention North Korea 2.0 somewhere?
There's a "North Korea 2.0" vibe in a lot of China's current politics but this one strikes me as more USSR than North Korea. Yet in truth, ALL of it is more like "Qing Dynasty 2.0."
"At least, IF there is any change in the regime, that's how it will come: in a way that China can deny it was a regime change at all."
I don't really expect Xi to fall. He seems to have done quite a thorough job of eliminating inner-party opposition. & with the new militia he already seems to prepare in case the situation overall in China becomes catastrophic, so that opposition gets organised.
Don't really like to predict the future, though. So I'll wait & see.
Regarding historical reference points, I agree. But it seems that emperor Xi takes his clues from all kinds of dictatorial sources. You can find parallels in absolutism over stalinism to nazism. Whatever keeps you in power, I suppose.
Before the chaos of this year I'd have said with 100% certainty that you're right. Now, well I still think you're most likely right but that likelihood is no longer 100%. The chances of him losing power aren't high, but they're no longer zero.