For months you may read my posts and see how the death rate early on outside of Hubei was initially between .2% and 1%. Then some Anomalies started to come along like Italy, Iran, with upwards of an 8% death rate and a few other places that had death rates about 2%. Even in south Korea now, the death rate is about 1.8% and I think it hit 3% not to long ago. So in that regard, I concede it is 2-3 times deadlier than i had thought-perhaps even higher. But none the less, in my first blog on the subject -I did advise going prepper. And even despite corona and the now upwards of a 12% unemployment rate, the DOL is still importing foreigners for tech jobs under H1-B Visas as people will be filing for bankruptcies and losing their homes and being told they can't work. Whose #1 in America? Not their own citizens. The Globalist are still winning.
Though a few weeks ago I said, I mentioned a point for where the s___t could hit the fan-but also noted a decay in the rate of new infections could delay this even by a few weeks. Luckily we don't have a million cases which would be when we had enough hospitalized people to match the number of ventilators. But with a present rate of new cases of 9-12 percent, we could get there in 9-12 days [and in editing john hopkins reported a new day, this time with a rate of 8.75%]. Though expect the rate to decay some more, and we could project that in about 14 days, but more realistically there might be about 820k based upon Italy's curve in 14-16 days.
I don't think that next week will be the worst week. When Italy was last in the 10% range was back on march 21rst. 59.1k cases up from 53.6k. Italy now has about 132.5k cases, and a new infection rate of 2.8%. So in about two weeks they multiple their number of cases by 2.24. With the US at 336k, if we apply the same multiplier then that is 820k cases. Even 2.8% of 820k is about 23k new cases a day-about 78% of what they are now; about what the daily numbers were for day end GMT March 29th. So you get some idea of what the peak they are talking about refer to the maximum of new daily cases. New cases will still be chugging along in the tens of thousands a day after it peaks.
Oh, speaking of March 21rst in Italy. See what happened the day before In Italy. We may have "peaked" here in daily new cases here in the USA also. It's not enough that it may have peaked-it is still a long road ahead.
Even assuming a second outbreak doesn't occur because of a false sense that we stopped the spread, the talks [started a few days ago] that the worst will happen next week, that it will be a 9-11 or pearl harbor event, I think is premature. I do think it will be bad this week. But I think the worst will be the week after. March 20th was over 2 weeks ago, and they are just now celebrating a decrease in daily death. https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/europe-sees-more-signs-of-hope-as-italys-coronavirus-curve-falls-1663692-2020-04-06
And should our rates grow faster than the Italy curve to the point it exhausts our medical equipment to catastrophic levels, then we could start seeing 8-10% death rates. At that point we might have to concede that Corona is worse than the flu in terms of annual death tolls. But it could still end up about your typical flu season-only with extra paranoia-and this is a flu you don't want to catch.
These stay in orders, and do not work orders, etc, are proving to be very fatal too. Many things still suggest the cure could be worse than the disease. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/covid-19-is-likely-to-lead-to-an-increase-in-suicides/
The most controlling numbers of new infections likely are still coming from New York. If new York stabilizes, looking at national rates may hide impending dangers-just as much as looking at the Global rates when china's new cases magically stopped and it looked like new cases about flatlined. Globally speaking, we had a peak when china's cases magically stopped sometime about February. If they can be trusted. If they aren't buying 200k body bags. If they didn't cremate so many live people that it rained black ashed in Japan. When Will the CCP ever tell the truth.
California's been under lock down for a while, and hasn't build up much of a herd immunity. If the current situation "peaks", and the ok is granted we could have that second outbreak in a more densely and heavily populated region than New York. The jury is till out on what will happen to California, but here I have more doubts that we'll see the worst of it next week. Even Michigan has more cases than California, in spite of California's vast homeless population.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/investigations/homeless-streets-of-shame-coronavirus-covid-19-skid-row/2340610/
Not to mention the number of immigrants in California. Most Americans knew about the virus and took precautions, but there existed a language barrier and foreigners didn't know. The BBC reports that they made up half the cases in the New York ER.
Half of the patients are undocumented, and don't speak English - they work in restaurants and are hotel chambermaids. They are not "plugged in". The calls for social distancing have passed them by.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52137160.
What Can California really do? It's not likely the virus will be completely eradicated for a long time. Will they Stay Locked up until it is over with to not be the next New York? Will they concede to have their own CORONAtion ceremonies and get it over with.
Sadly the article below isn't satire. Federalist just aren't RIGHT in the head. Federalists place the State ahead of the individual-the economy won't die as they predict. A system of trade between humans is a natural phenomena with its own natural laws, what they are concerned about is that either the state, perhaps even the deep state, will lose control due to economic unpredictability.
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/how-medical-chickenpox-parties-could-turn-the-tide-of-the-wuhan-virus/
source:Family Guy, Seth McFarland. Fox, maybe Disney now.
Yup, the market has it's own natural rules.
But What I mean by conceding and getting it over with, is returning to business and let people do their own risk assessment for themselves. Maybe the California central planners can do it major city by major city to optimize efficiency of medical treatment. We are Ending perhaps one major "peak", but I think there are bigger peaks or a series of other peaks on their way.
And much of Rural America isn't paying attention to the stay at home orders, or wearing face masks, and many are just now getting hit with their first case in their county. Don't let the numbers from New York control national dialog and policies; It is just the beginning for a lot of people who thought they were geographically immune.
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