Lower than predicted death tolls evidence of social distancing working?

in #coronavirus2 years ago


I keep seeing folks complaining about how the "death toll isn't what was predicted."

Isn't that a good thing? Doesn't that mean that some of our social distancing efforts WORKED?

Here's what too many people fail to understand, I think:
  1. Somewhere between 4 and 6 months ago, a "novel" (new) virus appeared on the human scene. No history with it, save what was happening contemporaneously to recognizing it.

  2. Testing was virtually non-existent early on, hence, data was limited.

  3. Models were developed with the data available at the time. Models changed as new data was fed into the system. Models are just educated guesses based on past experience, knowledge of populations, and existent data. Models get better with time, experience, and more data points.

  4. I'm thrilled that our models are looking better, and that the social distancing that much of the country enacted seems to have avoided New York (or Italy, or China) type events in most of the country.

  5. Once this wave passes, the statisticians and epidemiologists will be crunching the numbers. Better testing will be developed and available. Better knowledge about treatment options for those who get very ill will be available (and will have some scientific analysis and testing to back them up).

  6. If (more likely WHEN) we get another wave of COVID-19, we'll be in a position to handle it very differently--more like we handle seasonal influenza. We may see limited regional warnings again. We may all be advised at certain times to wear masks if we're going to be out in public at certain locations.

  7. My opinion--based on little more than believing that as we understand more about this virus, we'll know how to manage its effects on society better--is that we won't see the same kind of virtual shutdown of society that we've seen the last month or so, again. But we will all need to be aware and responsible for seeing to it that where we go doesn't have the kind of "hot spot" issue that seems to beg for more strict measures.

Personal Responsibility is better than the Heavy Hand of Government--so behave accordingly!



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In a way, if it does exist and is a risk, it's already in the global biological pool. We should just accept it.
The level of misinformation is terrible. I do not think the social distancing and other measures worked because there evidence it did not cause any change in other areas that did not close off.
Also, it is not more lethal than your typical flu. Probably is the same thing.

Which other areas that chose not to close off and subsequently saw down turn / flattening of the curve?

Take Sweden's "Screw it, we'll rely on herd immunity" policy against it's Nordic neighbours.


it will be a while before we can see the whole picture on Sweden. If Sweden does accomplish their goals (if herd immunity is even their goal) then it is fathomable that Denmark Norway and Finland will have to keep restrictions in place or else eventually face that spike that Sweden is getting past right now.

That might be the goal, I don't really have any idea.

Studies at the weekend suggested between 25-40 per cent of Stockholm may have actually already had the virus. It could be up to 60 per cent by late May. In France, it is currently believed to stand at around six per cent.

As a fan of freedom, I think it is refreshing to see at least one country that leaves it up to their population if they want to be afraid or not.

covid19 actually has a mortality rate of up to 20% in people 80 and older, and 10% in people 70 and older. As for everyone else, its estimated about 1% mortality rate, while the flu is about 0.1% across the whole population, including seniors. Social distancing is an old practice, like thousands of years old, long before people even knew about germs and viruses. Compared to pandemics of the past however like smallpox, TB, polio and others, covid19 is fairly tame. Some of the past pandemics had up to 60% mortality rates across the age spectrum. At least if something like that comes around in the future, we'll actually be prepared. If covid19 was as bad as smallpox, we would have been screwed. But, you don't want the coronavirus to rampage through a population, as RNA virus mutate a lot, and gambling that it won't mutate into a killer virus is... well, a gamble.