4 charts - why China's growth story is over

in #deutsch3 months ago

Dear Hiveans,

Today I'd like to share some charts from a presentation I recently held at my job. These are about China.

China's demography

  • This is the consequence of the one-child policy, and will have severe economic repercussions (less consumption, less capital, smaller workforce).

Money supply M2 for the Eurozone (green), the US (blue) and China (red)

  • Easy money?

Contribution of real estate to Chinese GDP

  • seems like a bubble.

China average yearly wages (in CNY per year)
image.png

  • With these wage increases China is no longer price competitive internationally. I wonder where these jobs will go? Mexico? Thailand?

Further issues are

  • China's zero-covid policy (which impeded the immunization of the people) with devastating economic consequences,
  • China's oil dependency on the Persian gulf (China has a demand of around 14 million barrel per day, but produces only 3-4 mbpd), and
  • China's dictatorship which is highly dependent on the whims of Xi Jinping.

In my opinion we will see the collapse of China in the years to come, way worse than Japan's decline since 1989, and perhaps as bad as or worse than the end of the Soviet Union. I hope China will go down peacefully and gracefully.

Have a great day,
zuerich


Liebe Hiver,

heute möchte ich einige Diagramme aus einer Präsentation zeigen, die ich kürzlich bei meiner Arbeit gehalten habe. Es geht um China.

Chinas Demographie

  • Dies ist die Folge der Ein-Kind-Politik und wird gravierende wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen haben (weniger Konsum, weniger Kapital, weniger Arbeitskräfte).

Geldmenge M2 für die Eurozone (grün), die USA (blau) und China (rot)

  • Easy money?

Beitrag des Immobiliensektors zum chinesischen BIP

  • sieht mir sehr nach einer Blase aus.

Chinesische Durchschnittsjahreslöhne (in CNY pro Jahr)
image.png

  • Mit diesen Lohnerhöhungen ist China international nicht mehr wettbewerbsfähig. Ich frage mich, wohin diese Arbeitsplätze gehen werden? Mexiko? Thailand?

Weitere Probleme sind

  • Chinas Null-Covid-Politik (die die Immunisierung der Bevölkerung verhindert) mit verheerenden wirtschaftlichen Folgen,
  • Chinas Ölabhängigkeit vom Persischen Golf (China hat einen Bedarf von ca. 14 Millionen Barrel pro Tag, produziert aber nur 3-4 mbpd), und
  • Chinas Diktatur, deren Funktionalität in hohem Maße von den Launen Xi Jinpings abhängt.

Meiner Meinung nach werden wir in den kommenden Jahren den Zusammenbruch Chinas erleben, der weitaus schlimmer sein wird als der Niedergang Japans seit 1989 und vielleicht genauso schlimm oder schlimmer als das Ende der Sowjetunion. Ich hoffe, China erlebt einen friedlichen und würdevollen Niedergang.

Have a nice day,
zuerich


Queridos Hiveanos,

Hoy me gustaría compartir algunos gráficos de una presentación que hice recientemente en mi trabajo. Son sobre China.

La demografía de China

  • Esta es la consecuencia de la política del hijo único, y tendrá graves repercusiones económicas (menos consumo, menos capital, menor mano de obra).

Oferta monetaria M2 para la zona euro (verde), Estados Unidos (azul) y China (rojo).

  • ¿Dinero fácil?

Contribución del sector inmobiliario al PIB chino

  • parece una burbuja.

Salarios medios anuales en China (en CNY por año)
image.png

  • Con estos aumentos salariales China ya no es competitiva en precios a nivel internacional. Me pregunto a dónde irán estos puestos de trabajo. ¿A México? ¿Tailandia?

Otros problemas son

  • La política de cero covacha de China (que impidió la inmunización del pueblo) con consecuencias económicas devastadoras,
  • la dependencia petrolera de China del golfo Pérsico (China tiene una demanda de unos 14 millones de barriles diarios, pero sólo produce 3-4 mbpd), y
  • la dictadura china que depende en gran medida de los caprichos de Xi Jinping.

En mi opinión veremos el colapso de China en los próximos años, mucho peor que el declive de Japón desde 1989, y quizás tan malo o peor que el fin de la Unión Soviética. Espero que China se hunda pacíficamente y con gracia.

Que tengan un buen día,
zuerich

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Muy bien trabajo amigo,un análisis muy detallado,bueno y china nos proporciona muchas cosas,esperamos no se dejen caer,saludos amigo y gracias por estar siempre apoyando,feliz día.

It'll be kind of hard for China to go down, don't you think.
Their exports and produce are widely spread 😂

Yes, it'll be hard for the whole world - as the world currently depends on China's products.
But either China must increase its products' prices a lot, or the government must expand its subsidies of these products. In the first case China's industry loses its competitive advantage, in the second the Chinese financial system explodes.
But that's just my opinion. Exciting times 😕

Exciting times indeed 😂😂
Seems it's only America's finance's that's developing 😢

I think we'll be seeing China power reduced in years to come. The dictatorship rule itself is why they may find it hard to bounce back with most workers leaving for greener pastures

China is very strong in the world, their exportation is fantastic.
They are also into technology, I think they tend to do better

CRAP??? 🤣👍

Thanks for the report - very interesting! I hope it goes down peacefully!

!POB

Dear @zuerich!
I agree with you!
At present, China's economic development has stalled. However, I don't think China will collapse!
Currently, Chinese manufacturing products dominate the world.
I think China has a dangerous plan to revive the Chinese economy through war!

I think China has a dangerous plan to revive the Chinese economy through war!

  • That's a real risk. Let's hope that won't happen.

Those are all good reasons and I agree that the factors aren't helping them much. With the recent presidential election or whatever done, I don't think they will focus on the growth story that much and the real estate market is in big danger.

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China is definitely one of the top countries in the world when it comes to exports. They have a lot of great products and they're always coming up with new and innovative ideas. It's no wonder their economy is doing so well!