Here is how investor could expect as passive return:
Curating - the expected return here is around 6%-8%
Lending - return variable, but I see it floating between 8%-13% yearly
The catch: inflation. Today there is a inflation rate of 8.59%.
This means the real passive ROI would be between -2.59%-4.41, Wich it isn't really attractive, because you can easily find low-risk investment 8% yearly return investments inside and outside cripto space.
Interesting here is that curation functions as a way to fight inflation.
The other way of having a positive ROI is the the token price appreciation, Wich can only happen if there is demand increase, but as we can see in some statistics, this isn't happening (no increase in new users/blockchain activities)
So, yeah. Steem is a bad investment. High risk, low return.
But it's fun tho 😛
Hey, @phgnomo.
Thank you for the analysis. It's pretty sobering when you trot out numbers like that. :)
But, I'm even more convinced that the typical investor is looking at things like you've mentioned much more than they are at what the daily active users are doing or caring about.
When you think as an investor side, the basic way of thinking is "how to, how much and how long".
The only way to "invest" on the blockchain is buying Steem Tokens.
Then the investor question is "what value can i get from what i bought".
Since the passive ways don't give a good return (if you consider that the STEEM price will be the same), the only way to have a higher return than other options is by price increase.
And the only way for the price to increase, is an increase in demand.
So, unless there is a good upward trend of new users/activity on the blockchain (wich in theory could increase the STEEM demand), there expected return on Steem as an investmend will continue to be bad.