WORCESTER 3.40
9/4 Melody Of Scotland, 11/4 Alcock And Brown,
4/1 The Sweeney, 5/1 Malton Rose, 8/1 Solatentif
14/1 Forecast.
2m 4f Handicap Hurdle
74 similar races June-July
MELODY OF SCOTLAND is a 4yo filly
She has only had 3 lifetime starts before
She has a few problems
She has 1 run in just 424 days
She is stepping up half a mile in trip
But win lose or draw
This problem means we must oppose her
Handicap Hurdles
Since 2007
Run over 2m 2f
Any Class of race
Any time of year
Fillies Aged 4
Under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 0-37 record
MELODY OF SCOTLAND only has 3 runs
She fails this 0-37 career record
If I include Irish races
That becomes a 0-69 record
If I include Novice Handicaps as well
Fillies Aged 4
Under 5 lifetime starts
Have a 0-92 record
MELODY OF SCOTLAND is opposed
FORECAST has 441 days off the track
In 74 similar races
No horse under 7 years old
Won absent more than 102 days
Have to see him as an unlikely winner
SOLATENIF ran 3 days ago
He was beaten 48 lenghts in that race
Hard to see him overcoming that
With as short an absence as 3 days
MALTON ROSE is Nicky Henderson
Smart Bumper horse last Summer
July 2017 won a maiden hurdle
The biggest problem with his profile
He has raced once since that race
MALTON ROSE lost 25 lengths last time
That was his first run in 308 days
Hard to know just how fit he is
MALTON ROSE has 3 runs
He also has topweight
That combination may be too much
There are 74 similar races
All 74 winners had 5 or more runs
Those with under 5 were 0-16
Some won at shorter + longer trips
But none have done at this trip
Combine that with his other problems
There are safer options in this race
Shortlist
ALCOCK AND BROWN
THE SWEENEY
THE SWEENEY has 8 runs
Lightly raced with 7 runs over hurdles
He is a future Chaser
His profile looks perfectly fine
Deserves his place on the shortlist
ALCOCK AND BROWN is a 6yo
Won a Handicap Hurdle last time
Career best run on Racing Post Ratings
Smaller field today as well
No real concerns with his profile
Stop Press
MELODY OF SCOTLAND
Annoyingly now a non runner
Selection
£8.00 Win Bet ALCOCK AND BROWN 7/4
£2.00 Win Bet THE SWEENEY 4/1
BATH 7.10
1/5 Queen Of Desire, 4/1 Party Dancer,
20/1 Sparkalex, 40/1 Billy Bot,
50/1 Invincible Pursuit.
QUEEN OF DESIRE is around 2/9
She looks a certainty on paper
She also has a firm ground Bath win
Her Racing Post Ratings are 68 59 56 83
She is beatable on 3 of those ratings
Won 8 lengths last time
Looked good
But it was Firm at Bath
What if she was flattered
What if her rivals hated firm
This could be a 2 horse race
We have 5 runners
3 rank outsiders
Little to recommend those
PARTY DANCER has 4 runs
Her Numbers are 55 62 58 49
Those numbers are modest
Well behind Queen Of Desire's
But they were over 6f 7f 6f 7f
What if she doesn't stay 6f or more
My personal opinion
In a very unscientific area
She is Bred for 4 furlongs
She may not even stay 5f
I may be wrong
But for me in all 4 of her runs
She had absolutely no chance
Of getting the distance in any of them
It is normally a cold day in Hell
Before I back a 7f horse down to 5f
But with her in this particular race
I think there is a definite case for it
Her owner is always interesting
What if she blasts out here
Over what looks the only trip she can win at
She could have this favourite in big trouble
PARTY DANCER each way at 4/1
With 2 places available
May well be a free bet
There are 2 ways she can be unplaced
Not staying 5f
That is a possibility
But if she cant stay 5f at Bath
On firm ground in a 5 runner race
Then God help her
She could also go off too fast
And collapse late
The 2nd best horse
Finishing 3rd or worse
Because of doing too much too early
Thats a fear but one we always have
Look at yesterdays highlighted bet
Done at 1.01 to place
When had the race won
This to me looks a bet we have to risk
Selection
PARTY DANCER 4/1
Each Way
1/4 the Odds 1-2
Thirsk 2.20
6f Novice Auction
Immokalee is a filly from 5f
She has 1 run and a 69 day absence
Fillies with 1 run were 1-44
That winner had a 32 day break
Fillies from 5f with 1 run
Returned a 0-17 record
She is not as safe as I'd like
HAADHIR has statistical promise
But is friendless in the market
PRICE ELZAAM is trading at 2/1
When 5/1 in the Racing Post forecasts
Statistically ok
Looks the most likely winner
Have to question whether he is value
But he looks best of the market leaders
Has each way double appeal too
Musselburgh 3.00
Breakwater Bay
Should be or selection or saver
You shouldn't lose if he were to win
For months he was running badly
His last 2 runs considerably better
Now looks to have run himself fit
Gran Maestro is second favourite
He is a 9yo coming from 11f to 16f
Can't rule that out form happening
Ruler Of The Nile didn't appeal much
Hard to like him on his last 2 runs
Can't rule a couple of these out
Breakwater Bay has positives
I like his presence off topweight
Musselburgh 2.30
Evs Light Heart, 7/4 Beryl The Petal,
6/1 Samantha James, 14/1 Barasti Dancer,
20/1 Wee Jim.
7F Novice Stakes
Light Heart has 1 run over 6f
Beryl The Petal has 1 run over 6f
Either could win if staying
But there is no guarantee they will
On Pedigree both have serious doubts
I can not trust either of this trip
Samantha James has 3 runs
Beaten at Thirsk over 6f last time
I'd like to know more a bit about her
Would have preferred a better last run
But she has more experience than these
Her numbers give her every chance
Samantha James at 7/1 each way
Is an interesting bet even with 2 places
Worcester 4.10
3 horse stand out in the market
Armaans Wish
Robin Des Mana
Ilewin Geez
None of these
Offer statistical comfort
None of these can be relied on
Ilewin Geez does have the best profile
And would be the each way bet on paper
Even though he is from the worst stable
I Couldn't stomach any of these
Musselburgh 5.00
5f Handicap
6 runners 3 dominate the market
Landing Light is the class horse
He has to give weight away though
What worries me about Eternalist
She is a 5yo mare with 20 runs
She is 0-13 in this class and higher
Her career best Racing Post Rating is 66
That is not very good after 20 runs
Landing Light did a 79 last time out !
Of course he has to give her 17lbs
But I don't want to be with Eternalist
Not with her class limitations
Kinloch Pride another older mare
She is the piggy in the middle
Not as good as Landing Light
But better than Eternalist
Of the 3 main sensible options
Eternalist would not be my choice
I'd be with one of the other pair
Either Landing Light or Kinloch Pride
Bellewstown 5.30
I had problems with these
Frosty Beach
Cedars Of Lebanon
Laura Bullion
Elusive Fantasy
Ran out of road after that
Bellewstown 6.00
Captain Vancouver
Scream
Whoever stays 8f best will stay
Circumstantial evidence suggests
That will probably be Captain Vancouver
Scream's trainer is on record
That she may struggle in a maiden
That was when she was rated 4lbs lower
Captain Vancouver will probably win
But doesn't offer much in price
Kempton 6.20
7f Fillies Novice
Not an uninteresting race
Pennywhistle unraced drawn 12
Andrew Balding has a Kingman colt
If you gave me a free bet
It would be this burglary bet
Nine Petrovna 5/2Each Way