Ten days ago the HBD circulating supply (excluding DHF) was around 9.6M and now we are at 8.7M HBD.
If we look at the HBD conversions, excluding the @hbdstabilizer we get this.
We can see the obvious jump in the conversions from users, up to 120k HBD on Nov 13th. These conversions started 3.5 days ago, so the initial round of conversions was triggered somewhere around Nov 10. This is at the time when FTX imploded and crypto prices went down a lot, pushing the HBD price down as well.
Conversions were used to arbitrage this as users can still get one dollar worth of HBD in HIVE. A total of 250k HBD was converted to HIVE in the last ten days from regular users, excluding the stabilizer.
If we include the stabilizer we get this:
Obviously the stabilizer is doing much more volume. For the period in which the HBD price was bellow the one dollar, 90% of the conversions come from the stabilizer. It doesn't mean that all this HIVE was used to buy HBD as some is sent back to the DHF, but still we can say that the stabilizer has a dominant role in the support of HBD. Regular users conversions has been active as well, but the price drop in the HBD wasn't that big for a long period of time to allow more of those to happen. Because of the 3.5 days of conversions, there is a price risk from HIVE and users want to see a bigger margin in the HBD price before deciding to make the arbitrage.
The other side of this equation is that the HIVE supply has increased, but still not as much. Also it seems that the drop in the HBD supply has bottomed out, the HBD supply on Upbit is at all time low, 4.2M HBD is in savings, and there is not much more tokens out there.
Overall the system is working as deigned in this turbulent times :)
If HBD price drops below 0.98 that is when I usually convert instead of selling it on market.
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The full arbitrage circle would be:
USD->HBD-> 3.5 days HIVE conversion ->USD
But there are not much liquidity for HBD outside the internal market, the BUSD-HBD pool on Cub might be the one place, but you cant do large swaps... say 10k plus.
The other option is to go trough the internal market and HIVE, and that would be:
USD->HIVE->HBD-3.5 days HIVE conversion ->USD
If the price of HIVE changes significantly during the conversions one can end up in a loss.
I have personally faced this :( That's why I am very cautious about using this feature for making profits .
Right now I am just putting my HBD to my savings but if we want to bring in new investors onto Hive using HBD as a selling point then as you mentioned we need more liquidity .
By seeing BUSD-BHBD on CUB from past few weeks , it shows hope .
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fear of HBD collapsing or people using the opportunity to get more hive for HBD?
Its arbitradge between the external markets and internal on chain price.
External markets are mainy driven by Upbit. But not a lot of hbd left there now
ii think that's because the HBD Savings... people prefer to put it