Would you consider storing a significant part of your net worth in HBD ?

in #hbd2 years ago (edited)

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(ah yes I would love to earn a free cup of coffee per year)

Hey,

This post kind of stems from discussions I've had with @fredrikaa and I'm curious to hear what you guy's thoughts are, now there there are some pretty solid mechanism in place to hold HBD around 1$ (.994 as of this writing), thanks to both conversions from and to hive, and the HBD stabilizer that @smooth is running, this leads to HBD being stable and for a decent amount of time.

This increased stability let witnesses increase the APR over time (which also creates demand for HBD, increasing the stability). And are now at 12%, a rate putting a good amount of investment to shame (a good point of comparison would be https://platform.nexo.io/, they offer rates through lending, but to reach 12% you have to hold a very big amount of nexo to even approach 12%).
So with all these factors, we are seeing a lot of people just selling HBD and putting it in savings like this guy: https://hive.blog/deutsch/@oliverschmid/balance-ins-portfolio-bringen

For my part I am on the fence, I am soon going to buy a flat somewhere and so while all the papers are getting sorted out (I don't know yet how big of a loan I can take on). I may supply more or less of the value by selling some crypto, so it's tempting to no longer have to worry about the ups and downs of the market and hold a decent amount of HBD and collect the APR while my situation gets sorted out. Which is very tempting but at the same time I am (like many of you I'm sure haha) a gambler and I feel like holding hive just waiting for it to go back up again while collecting curation rewards.

So what are your thoughts ? Would you consider doing it ?

cc @olebulls I'm sure you have opinions from reading your latest articles hahaha

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I've been putting all of my liquid author rewards directly into savings upon payout since November. Should hit $1000 tomorrow :).

I dedicated most of this post on that topic a few days ago explaining My Hive strategy for 2022.

First of all, I made a few "simple rules" so that I can just follow them without needing to stop and think all the time:

I’ve set a few ranges for what to do with the HBD based on different HIVE prices:
$1 HIVE + : Move all HBD from post rewards to HBD Savings account to earn interest
$0.5-$1 HIVE: Move 50% of the HBD from post rewards to Savings, and use the other 50% to immediately buy HIVE off the internal market and Power it Up.
Sub $0.5 HIVE: Buy HIVE with 100% of liquid rewards and power up as well as withdraw HBD from Savings and start buying HIVE off the internal market.

Whether to go further than that and buy HBD with other crypto holdings to save it for interest would depend on a few other factors such as:

  • What do you think is the likelihood that we're heading into a Bear market Vs continue in a Bull market for crypto generally? If the first, then getting interest on a stable coin while the Bear market goes on is obviously better than holding let's say BTC or ETH.
  • How exposed are you to crypto before? And if too much, are there good reasons (like taxes) that would make you benefit from delaying the sale of whatever you think you have too much of to diversify? If so, HBD savings can be a good way to diversify and lessen your exposure to crypto volatility.

So it's not only about where HBD and its return are at. It is also about where you and your portfolio are at.

But having some crypto reserves in HBD earning interest that can be a hedge against a market correction, and then be used to buy dips, is probably a good idea if you have quite a lot.

I believe there is a place for a fixed income market on Hive. It is why I wrote about the idea of Hive Certificate of Deposits which could eventually roll into Hive Bonds.

We can use the time lock element on Hive to offer greater rewards (starting at 20%) yet still maintain stability since the HBD is locked up. This would allow for the creation of more HBD without flooding the open market.

All of this at the base layer would be rather unique and quite promising in my opinion. It seems that much of the code is already that so would only require a bit of expansion.

As to the point of your question, I am adding to my HBD saving stake every chance I get. My rewards are 50/50 in some instances, helping that along. It is a great baseline for a portfolio.

Hive Bond sounds cool! Is it in the works at this time?

No just something I wrote about. Havent really approached anyone on the core development team at this point. They are working on the upcoming hard fork so their plate is full at this time.

I think the biggest issue is still the "haircut rule".

Do you mean that the interest on HBD savings will stop if the debt ratio is reached?

No. It's the fact that if the price of HIVE goes way down to the point where the debt ratio between HIVE and HBD is below the haircut rule, the you no longer get 1 dollar worth of HIVE from your HBD when you convert it on-chain, you get less (proportionately to how much lower HIVE is in value). That means you could risk seeing your HBD fall down to something like $0.75, which would obviously ruin your gains if you sell at that price.

Thankfully, the current value of HIVE is quite a lot higher than where this becomes an issue, but that may not always be the case if we go into a harsh enough bear market.

Would an internal AMM solve this? Instead of using the on-chain conversion mechanism, the internal market could be use?

What are your thought @edicted? I feel like this is something we need to do.

What's the haircut rule?

If all HBD exceeds 10% of the value of all HIVE then HBD will lose some of its backing and could (probably would) drop below $1 in value until the amount of HBD was reduced or the value of HIVE went up.

Right now it is closer to 2%, so not a concern short term, but if the value of HIVE were to drop a lot and/or the amount of HBD being held were to increase a lot (without HIVE going up in value), then it could be.

There is a plan to increase the limit in an upcoming hard fork (to I think 20% or 30%, I'm not sure which), so the limit may become even less likely to be hit, but that change is not certain to happen.

Oh,now I get it! Perhaps this was the time I received rewards in Hive, HP and HBD on my post payouts. Where do I get information about real time HBD value vs Hive?

Hivestats.io

Thank you @mistakili! Appreciate it. :)

Yes it also switches payouts to HIVE when hit.

You can see the current statistics here: https://hive.ausbit.dev/hbd

This is what I'm looking for, thank you @smooth! Will save this link for future reference. 😁

42k HBD in savings so far - I'm trying to save up for a house and I can't think of anywhere better to store it in the meantime :)

That intro graphic is hilarious, normies have no idea what they're missing out on 😂

I would for sure but a part of me feels like there's still risk if too much HBD starts getting printed from interest. At some point you have to start wondering how much value can keep being pumped into the printing of new HBD? I would guess there has to be some type of underlaying factor there of which I don't know off hand.

However making 12% and having it be a real stable value is enticing being that a high REIT dividend yield is about 8% but runs a very high risk of being removed or collapsing with the way things are right now. So yes I would for sure consider it and have already considered it. For now I've been stacking it as it comes in while still going through the motions in my head about taking action on it and to what extent.

As of yet the printing of interest has a trivial impact on inflation, but it is quite possible that it will increase rapidly.

In that case we will have to rely on good stewardship of the witnesses to recognize when demand for HBD savings is actually too high and detrimental for core Hive token. In such a scenario they should dial down interest, and savers should start to exit HBD savings as it is less attractive with lower returns. We will see if that actually happens, of course.

But in this case demand for HBD would drop a lot. Because otherwise inflation would hit again.

Given the run up in HIVE recently, I have moved about half of my stake over to HBD. In addition to the 12% interest (which is really nice), I am also anticipating a possible drop in HIVE before the next run up. If that happens, I will roll my HBD (and interest) back into HIVE to ride the next wave. I plan to do similar things moving forward. HBD is a nice checkpoint in my mind to lock in earnings when there is increased volatility.

It would be great if the internal market was an AMM. That has been my biggest issue at the moment because mentally I would like to avoid the 5% conversion fee. Why does that fee exist? Wouldn’t it be better to not have the fee so the upper limit is less than $1.05, which is essentially what it is now with the fee? Or am I not understanding that correctly?

There are some AMMs on L2 platforms I think. There are fees but they're less than 5%.

In practice HBD has NOT frequently traded up to 1.05. It's usually within a penny or two of $1.

Just wait for a pump. You’ll convert your hbd getting paid more than one dollar for each HBD. Gotta be fast though. Check my transaction history =)

ha, just some days ago I thought about this as well... If the market goes up this year I will definitely put in 30-50% of my crypto holdings... 12% is just too good to not use. I guess some people might even be able to live off of the interest :)

I have my post rewards set for 50/50 so I can move most to HBD savings and collect the interest. I also keep some out of savings as a small emergency fund should I need to move some crypto out quickly. I like getting the steady income on my earnings.

Like you I love both options, I’m doing them both. I’m holding Hive power and still accumulating through curation rewards, while I’m also simultaneously growing my HBD savings to collect APR. So yes I’ll consider storing a huge part of my networth in hbd.

I've considered placing enough in there in order to have the basics covered in life; the small things like meals, rooms, fuel, flights, basic bills and payments, etc. Difficult to plan long term because I'm under the impression 12% isn't permanent.

That's correct, the rate is variable depending on witness assessment of market conditions.

Always read the fine print.

Haha, the opinions are always many! Imagine @fredrikaa on speed, then you get me hahah joke!🤣

"I am actually in the same boat as you"! I Will try to by a house very soon - just waiting for it to be listed on the market lol... (I lost the bid war on the previous house unfortunately....)

12% APR! 11.8% better than any savings account in Norway (out with a post about that next week). I know where I will put most of my savings after the house is bought👌 Gonna try to reallocate and adjust to a 50%/%30/%20 (HBD(savings)/HP/Hive) sometime in 2022.

Btw if you base it only on rewards Fredriks strategy is smart and simple: https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@fredrikaa/my-hive-strategy-for-2022-or-myhivegoals

Summary: "$1 HIVE + : Move all HBD from post rewards to HBD Savings account to earn interest"

I already am holding a substantial portion of my net worth in HBD savings.

I have 100 HBD in savings, I hope to eventually build it to 1,000 HBD. I got my first Interest payment of the year: Receive interest 1.029 HBD Not much but sat 1,000 HBD it will be a measurable amount. Also with the withdrawal rate only being 3 days, I think it is very worth while to have a little earning interest.

Personally I would, If I could build enough where the interest account for a decent amount of my income then yeah that'd be freaking awesome.

I'd need like $20k in there though to get a reasonable monthly return. but that's like 10% apr. my net worth is basically what my hive account is worth right now.


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My bank has no money. I just use HBD

Portion yes. But not close to all of it. Everything has risk. HBD's track record of working moderately well as a stable coin has a lifespan of a few months. The Hive blockchain itself could have catastrophic issues even though it's been working fine for years so this seems less likely. The 12% as others have noted is a variable rate. Haircuts are still possible (but current market suggests unlikely near term). Buyer beware.

Yes 100% provided you could change to USDT or USDC or BUSD without losing more than 1%.

I actually have a goal to increase my HBD holdings and am working on it. Same for HIVE though, because at the state of my holdings I don't believe it's either-or, it's both that I need to keep growing.

It would be a good idea if the increase in the haircut threshold will be included in the future hard fork (HF27). By then we will probably be in a bear market and the likelihood of the haircut rule to become effective will be much higher.

I'd consider doing it just because the alternative is so bad. Even if HBD varies a lot, the APR is far better than a savings account and will be a better place for storing money in the long run.

The main thing I'd want to make sure of is that it remains liquid enough to pull out in a reasonable amount of time if I needed it.

As I am not planning to buy any place to live in the next few years, my situation is by far different from yours.... Therefore, it is hard to say anything.

Here, what you mentioned is tempting, but is also somehow risky, especially as we don't have much statistics on a stable HBD on the long term. Doing this for a fraction of the full amount that you are planning to inject in the flat could probably satisfy both the gambling feeling and security.

Anyways, I should probably stop mumbling here and leave you with your choices :)

Cheers!