Already into June, and MLB is hitting its stride. My Milwaukee Brewers swept the Dbacks this weekend, and well...I have to say I'm very impressed with the starting pitching of that team. Very impressed. I don't know if it is sustainable, but watching Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes has been a lot of fun. Not bad for a small market team.
On the more pressing issue at hand, I thought I'd take a look at starting pitchers yet again. The bell curve above is illustrates how many points a Starting Pitcher has earned, on average, per start this season. The mean points earned is 26.79 points per Fanduel's scoring. The more points a starting pitcher earns, the more probablilty it is for your entire team to do well and (most importantly), win some of that good ol' fiat! Who doesn't love a little fiat, right?
Today's analysis is pretty simple, really: on average, what hitting teams yield more points to the opposing pitcher? Here is a chart of the season to date:
So, what does that mean? The graph above illustrates that if you choose a starting pitcher, whoever that might be, facing the Detroit Tigers, you would have earned 33.25 points each time for your Fanduel roster. If you had drafted the starting pitcher against the Houston Astros each time possible, your starting pitcher would have earned 21.95 pts per outing.
With that said, this is definitely something I'm adding to me daily toolbox; I'm staying away from from the Sox, Stros, and Jays...even those Dodgers are still tearing it up.
A June Update ?
The strategy thus far is simple:
- Invest $1 USD in a GPP main slate
- Invest $2 USD in a 50/50 main slate
- Determine the weakest pitching teams that slate per team estimated xFIP
- Choose hitters in the 1-4 spot facing the weakest pitching teams that night
Well, I'm not breaking any records or any banks, but so far so good.
June MTD, I've invested $18 USD into the games. My total earnings, so far, are $11 USD...so that's a profit. I don't know; I'm expecting a drawdown here shortly, but I am going to continue to test my hypothesis and strategy above. Focus on a) good starting pitchers against bad teams and b) cheap hitters in the 1-4 spot in the lineup against poor pitching teams. Time will tell, as always.
Tonight's main slate is brutal; I don't have team xFIPs as there are two minor leaguers getting starts against the Red Sox and Angels. I'll put something together again tomorrow as a preview for tomorrow's games once more games return. I did enter into a GPP and 50/50, but I'm not expecting much success tonight.
Thanks for checking this one out! As always, go Crew!
Only 3 games today is quite brutal. Pitchers making debuts are extremely tough to model and usually with 10-15 games happening, there will be enough games/players to choose from a wagering perspective. Not today.
The crackdown on pitchers using substances is going to be very interesting to watch. Almost requires a look at pitchers with past performances over the past few seasons and examining their Pitch F/X metrics. If something looks amiss, it may provide an opportunity to fade those pitchers.
Gerrit Cole is the #1 suspect when it comes to substances. The vertical movement on all his pitches was a bit off from his usual vertical movement during the season in his last start against the Rays. His fastball and changeup horizontal movement also deviated from his average.
This change in substance rules may provide a short-term value as markets may not have adjusted.
Very brutal, yeah; I'm curious to see where pitching data goes here too. Part of me thinks it's just a matter of time before they figure out a new "assist", you know?
My xFIP model seems to be working ok so far...I think if I keep digging into it and tweaking it, maybe there will be something to it?
How about that Brewer starting staff?? Scary!
I have been hearing it is a variety of different blends, including sunscreen.
2nd Best xFIP and Best K/9 rate for the pitching staff. Sweeping the D-Backs was an absolute must for the Brew Crew.
A little bit of good news for you: Expect to see more Brewers coverage here (Cubs and Twins coverage too...) very soon.
Oh yeah? Are you up here in the midwest as well? I have a few friends who are big Twins fans (until they start losing, of course...haha)
Looking forward to it - tag me in case I miss something, please?
I'm in NYC (for now)... there's going to be coverage actually of all MLB teams coming soon HERE and on the family of sites I operate.
I'm expecting to get College Football and Basketball coverage here too for Power Conference programs... so there will be coverage of both Marquette and Wisconsin ALL YEAR ROUND. Bringing College Football and Basketball fans to the blockchain would be something else.
You'll be tagged in so you can check it all out. I'm excited about it, it's going to be different.
I like it! I'm a big baseball fan and was curious what type of interest was out on Hive. My goal is to keep going with it this summer and see if I can drum up any baseball fans to engage with.
College Football and basketball fans would love the blockchain...definitely an untapped market right now as far as I can tell.