For Norwich fans, the wait for a return to the Championship is nearly over! Are they the greatest yo-yo team in the history of the Premier League? In Watford, they face another side that has struggled to spend a sustained period in the top flight since it's inception but this game represents a massive opportunity for the Hornets to put some clear daylight between them and the bottom 3. It would be tempting to say that this is like a cup-final for Watford but perhaps that's not what they need to hear given what happened to them just over a year ago at the hands of Man City in an actual cup final.
Norwich's contribution to the race for safety so far has been to hand crucial wins to fellow bottom-half sides Brighton, Everton and Southampton thereby effectively ending any realistic chances of them taking the drop. Given that in 16 matches since the re-start the bottom 4 have collectively managed just 2 points between them then Watford will sincerely be hoping the Canaries can do the same for them here tonight!
Both teams primary issue at the moment is a lack of goals. Watford have managed just 29 all season (the 3rd lowest) and 2 since the restart while Norwich have scored just 25 times (the lowest in the league) and are on a barren run of 470mins in the Premier League without a goal.
To make matters even more gloomy for the Canaries they have managed just 6 goals away from home in the Premier League this season! With this match and then trips to Chelsea and Man City it looks increasingly likely that Norwich will gain the unenviable record of having scored the fewest away goals in a Premier League season (Derby's 8 goals in 07/08 remains the target to beat).
Matters up front aren't helped by the fact that Todd Cantwell has picked up an injury. With big clubs circling the talented young midfielder, it is not impossible to suggest that he may have played his last match for the club. The fact that this is the 5th match in 13 days that Norwich will have played means that at the very least a few of their players are likely to have picked up knocks and may need to be rested. Had Norwich have managed to gain any momentum in these closing stages of the season then perhaps the games coming so thick and fast would have been of benefit to them but instead, it just feels like one punch in the gut after another for a squad that already knows its fate.
Watford's decision to change manager for the 2nd time this season is what has kept their heads just above water but the thrust they received from the appointment of Nigel Pearson has quickly begun to fade and the gravitational pull of the bottom 3 is now sucking them back in. They themselves haven't won a game since February when quite out of context they smashed Liverpool 3-0 at home. It is that home form which over the course of the season is the best amongst the current bottom 5 which might well see them just about survive what has otherwise been a horror campaign.
To some extent, I can see why the bookies are unsure of how many goals will be scored in this fixture as while we've covered both these team's lack of threat up front neither is blessed with a solid defence either. However, if we dig a little deeper into how they have both performed against other sides that are also struggling to score in the Premier League this season then we can see that a bet of under 2.5 goals is the way to go.
The table above shows Watford and Norwich's last Premier League result against the other 4 teams who make up the bottom six scorers in the league this year. As we can see, only 1 of those fixtures has finished with 3 goals or more (Watford's victory over Bournemouth in January). Could Watford put in the sort of performance that saw them beat Liverpool or might Norwich replicate the same kind of fighting spirit they've shown in the Cup? Perhaps, but statistically, that looks unlikely and the bookies odds of under 2.5 at just shy of evens looks very good value.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals @1.89 or better
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Ha ha that meme got me going. But also the fact that how you mentioned we are the most generous team in the league right now. How many goals will Watford score? Well that depends on how many they want to score. We are ready to concede as many they want to score.