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I have one count that predicts no drop whatsoever.
Yes, a drop is more likely, but not necessary at all.

Chinese miners have been having trouble selling for the last two months resulting in a supply crunch on the market. Once they go insolvent and the BTC they haven't been selling gets liquidated or when they get their problem with the Chinese authorities sorted, there will be a flood of BTC on the markets because the Chinese miners have a backlog of power bills to pay.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-rally-supply-crunch-in-china

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That's FUD. Miners only get 900 BTC per day. Let them sell an extra 100k BTC, it will be absorbed in no time.
That's the entire supply of 111 days btw.

You're right. The daily volume is $33 billion. 900 BTC is worth only about $16 million at today's price. While some of the trading volume is fake, 900 BTC simply does not change the picture much.

indeed, it|s all about probabilities. But I think it's at least 80% we see 13-14k again (but no lower than that). I am mainly basing this on fractal analysis; the last time we hit an all time high again back in the last bull run, a mild correction (~30%) occurred.