Dear HODLers and Hivers,
Here I am again rambling about COVID19, CryptoMarkets and the level of debt in major Western economies.
COVID19 Update
We went from 140k new daily cases in the world on Thrusday to 180k on Friday.
That is a 28% increase in just a day and as we know with COVID19 and its long incubation period it means we will get >150/160k cases for at least a week.
I wrote about this issue and its upcoming impact on Stock Market and Cryptocurrencies Market in a post a week ago: COVID19 is back ! And it will crash both Cryptocurrencies & Stock Market 😭.
The scenario I was talking about is clearly taking place and we should have an upcoming volatile week on financial markets.
I also wrote another post showing the difference of narrative concerning COVID19 as Europe and US were deconfining and thinking it was "over" as financial markets rallied !
Here is the post: Bull Market, here you are again... What is next: Rationality or Assets' Bubble?
It also reminds me of the late January/beginning of February time when investors just thought we "would get through it" as most governments, WHO, analysts were screaming "This is just a flu" !
I still stand by it, we are just BEFORE a huge drop even with the money printing craze happening.
US Update
I loved the quote of a Biologist and Healthcare Researcher about the US lockdown: "We payed the price but we did not get the benefit" meaning US shut down its economy but did not do a strict enough confinement therefore did not lower daily cases enough !
US Daily New Cases in some "hot" states
Other countries where the situation is getting "out of control"
Brazil
India
Mexico
The FED, ECB, BoE... printed new money like crazy to go through the crisis, what is next?
UK Debt as % of GDP
US Debt in bn
All the Western central banks printed a lot of money and all these governments announced either partial unemployement benefits, checks or other measure to help their economies.
As we saw in the 2 graphs above: Debt went immediately up and in large numbers. Most of these countries have been clear that they will NOT re-confine (as we cannot sustain this hit from an economic point of view).
What does this means?
Well bankruptcies are going to go up in large numbers, government and corporate debts are going to continue to increase. Whoever will be elected in the US will raise corporate and individual taxes to fund all these interest costs (Biden is talking about moving from 21 to 28%, taxing heavily GAFAS...)
This is why I am all cash in the stock market, I am currently shorting BTC and cryptocurrencies.
I stand ready to buy BTC lower as I believe it will be the big winner in the medium/long term.
DO NOT FOLLOW THIS AS THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE, I am just sharing what I am doing so you can either praise me in a week or laugh at me 🤣.
What is your felling on Stock Market and Cryptocurrencies?
➡️ Publish0x
➡️ UpTrennd
➡️ Minds
➡️ Hive
➡️ Twitter
➡️ Facebook
➡️ Be paid daily to browse with Brave Internet Browser
➡️ A secure and easy wallet to use: Atomic Wallet
Proud member of:
Helps us by delegating to @hodlcommunity
Make a good APR Curation by following our HIVE trail here
Things are getting hot again in the US...
If the US is still with the amount of new cases increasing, the stock market will react 100%. This week will be fun to watch. Let's see!
Cheers!
Yes, governments and central banks have done everything they could but the dam is going to break imho.
And this will be bad for crypto prices ont the short term. But very good in the long term 😉
Interesting take @vlemon, preparing to short BTC certainly is a bold move but your analysis makes sense.
You're the anti-Dave Portnoy haha