What to do for end of season?
End of season is around the corner and so I have to answer the question, what to do with myself and the game. Renting cards for a ton of money, begging for cheap rentals / delegations or just rent out my deck and enjoy my life in Bronze? Well, if my current rentals are not going to be canceled, I don't have to decide and can stay in Silver 3, without making a decision - and that is what I hope for right now. I am not going with super cheap rentals and hope, that the owner of the card is good with me renting until next season - and maybe also after that. If my rental isn't gonna be canceled, I would keep that card. Sure, I could get that power for cheaper, but it is so much less stress, to just keep renting the same card. Would probably only cancel the rent the time I have enough power, because I think that the price is fair and I know, that playing regularly I can earn that money plus also making some profits myself. Although I am almost not using the card.
But if that rent gets canceled, the questions arises. Do I try to snipe some cheap rentals? Do I even go for more rentals to get myself to Silver 2? Or would it be good for me, to get as low as Bronze 1?
I am not sure. According to https://splintercards.com/tool-lootchest.html the value of a loot chest is 57 DEC for the daily rewards, while the value of Silver 3 end of season rewards is 685 DEC. In Bronze I this number is around 320 DEC lower, so as long as my rentals are not over 320 DEC I should be good?
Well, that is, if I calculate the average value of those packs - and this would be financially the best option. My last end of season rewards are priced at ~180 DEC plus three non-tradable potions. And that was not a worst case scenario. I still got some decent common and a nice regular card. Nothing too special though.
But of emotions, back to math.
Adding some Math
Silver III
According to Splintercards the probability to get a common card is 36.85%, a rare card is at 9.8 %, an epic at 1.96% and a legendary at 0.392%. Gold foils are even more rare, with 0,752%, 0,2%, 0,04% and 0,008% drop chance (C/R/E/L). So yeah, getting an Gold foil, epic or legendary card, is pretty low at only around 3.352% combined. So in total you have a 66,4% chance of no epic, legendary and gold foil card, since each loot box is an independent event. The chance of getting only epic, legendary and gold foil (of any type) is 1.9977 x 10⁻18. So although it is not unlikely, that you can get a legendary, epic or gold foil card, it is not really likely.
Still, even common and rare cards are worth a lot and can be worth a lot. If the chance of getting a rare card is the same for each of them (Exploding Rats, Venari Seedsmith, Venari Wavesmith, Venari Bonesmith, Venari Crystal Smith, Naga Assassin, Twilight Basilik and Gargoya Devil), it is 1/8 for each of them. All of them, except for the Venari Wavesmith are priced between 65-120 DEC, the Wavesmith being the exception with a current price of around 575 DEC. So if you hit the jackpot, it almost doesn't matter, what else you get. But the chance of hitting a Wavesmith is around 1,225%, which adds up to a total of 13%, which doesn't sound too bad anymore.
If you would add the Wavesmith to the others, you would get to a 4,56% chance of getting something that is already a good price in each box, which adds up to around 42,45% in total. So almost a coin flip.
Why this example - because I want a Wavesmith. And because it is valued higher than all epic cards.
Bronze I
But this comparison is incomplete. It is only taking the probabilities of getting "good" cards in Silver III. If I wouldn't rent, I would drop back to Bronze 1. The chance of good rewards are a lot lower. For regular foil cards it is 22,11% / 5,88% / 1,176 % / 0,2352% (C/R/E/L), while it is 0,451%/0,12%/0,024%/0,0048% for gold foil cards. And credits instead of DEC. Splintercards lists the daily box at a value of 38 DEC.
The combined probability for Wavesmith+Epic+Legendary and gold foil cards is around 2%, so not even half of the prob in Silver 3. Also you only get 9 loot boxes, leaving you with a 16,625% chance to get anything that the market is appreciating.
To be honest: If you don't get any of those high value cards, you are missing out on the long term, because most of them have a great meta use. Sure, Pelacor Mercenary is a cheap Flesh Golem - but only Gold League onwards, which is out of reach for most of us newer or low budget players. The other cards do already have a place in the meta, but are getting useful only later on. Djinn Oshannus or Venari Wavesmith are meta at level 1. Harklaw is my preferred tank in higher mana death matches - and probably will grow in importance as Haunted Spirit is leaving the Starter Deck. From Silver 3 to Bronze 1 the probability to get one of the better cards, decreases almost two thirds.
So yes, it is worth to stay in Silver III - probably even if I have to rent more for more than 150 DEC. (PS: I first made the mistake of using end of Season value of loot chest for Bronze I using Silver I as default in settings - if you change it, the decrease is even worse, so I would still make a lot of profit, if I would rent for 150 DEC, according to average numbers and probability).
Silver II and above
The picture wouldn't be complete if I wouldn't add the other option: Silver 2. According to Splintercards the value of the end of season loot is around 856 DEC. That is some 171 DEC more. So can I just go and rent for 171 DEC more and try to get to Silver II?
Well, the probabilites per event are not changing, but the number of independent event increases and so does the compound probability. Instead of 42,45%, we get to over 50% for Wavesmith, Epic, Legendary or Gold foil card. In total. So if I would get to Silver 2, I would have a 50% chance of getting some big rewards.
Silver I would bring that probaility up to 56,83%, in Gold 3 it is at 64,18%, Gold 2 is giving you around 70% chance to get one and Gold 1 even a 75,3% chance of getting a good card.
This increases a lot in Diamond and Champion. Diamond 3 is at 84,5%, Diamond 2 at 90,3% and Diamond 1 at 93,9%. At Champion 3 you would be at 97,6%, and Champion 2 at 99,63% and at Champion 1 the probability is at 99,990889% - so if you don't get any at Champion 1, the game really hates you.
But this also clears things up, since the power requirements are completely broken: Silver is 15k/40k/70k, Gold 100k/150k/200k and Diamond is 250k/325k/400k (Champion is at 500k). While the upper leagues are not relevant, since they require also more skill, I think that most players can get to a decent rating, which would get them to a Silver 2 - Gold 3 rating. Because that is where I am placed, and I wouldn't consider myself a really good player.
DEC per CP - how much does Ranking up cost?
During the season it is easy to get deals for 250 CP per DEC - easy and without big problems. At End of Season this is a completely different story. But if we would consider 250 CP/DEC, it is 4 DEC per 1k CP, which adds up to 40 DEC/10k CP or 60 DEC for Silver 3; 160 DEC/Silver 2, 280 DEC/Silver 1, 400 DEC/Gold 3, 600 DEC/Gold 2 and 800 DEC/Gold 1. This is probably the cheap end.
Right now, we're already more in the 100-150CP/DEC range. At 100CP/DEC, we have 10 DEC per 1k CP, which adds up to 150 DEC/day for Silver 3, 400 DEC/day for Silver 2 or 50 DEC/day for Bronze 1.
It is very likely that prices increase. Last season we saw peak prices of under 50 CP/DEC - that's 5x to the "normal" rates.
So if you don't own any cards or very little, you would have to pay anything between 60-300 DEC for the power to get to Silver 3. No peanuts. If your expected loot is at 685 DEC, that can be up to 43% of the expected value. Renting for Bronze 1 is "only" 20-100 DEC if you have no cards, so even if you have to pay a lot, it would only be at 28,41% of your expected loot value.
Is it worth?
After all those numbers the question might be a little closer to answer. Is it worth to rent for Silver III?
The answer depends on all the variables mentioned.
If you get cheap rentals, definitely go for it! The rewards are a lot better and will earn you mid to long term.
If not. Silver 3 has way better rewards, while Bronze 1 has a way better price-reward ratio. If you want to play it save, I would suggest Bronze 1 and hope for big prizes. If you want to proceed in the game, go for Silver 3. Especially as long as DEC is a lot higher than credits.
Renting out power
And what to do, if you do own more than Silver 3 power in CP? Is it worth to proceed to Silver 2 or rent out cards?
If you can rent out cards for 50 CP/DEC, you earn 20 DEC/1k power, which is 500 DEC. The average increase in expected value from loot boxes is only around 165-180 DEC (55-60 DEC per chest). If you really want to go for the money, it is way more profitable to rent out your cards, than to go for the bigger boxes.
Even if we sit at 100 CP/DEC, it would be 10 DEC/1k or 250 DEC, instead of 165-180 DEC. So the break even point is actually around the 200CP/DEC mark, if you think it absolutes. Because at 200 CP/DEC you get 1k power for 5 DEC, so 35k power are at 175 DEC, which is somewhat in the middle of the expected bigger value of Silver 2 to Silver 3 loot chests.
Since 200 CP is way lower, than the expected and of season prices, it is very likely that you make more DEC in renting out your cards, than in keeping them.
Of course this is only true as long as this is not known to the markets. Because if more people drop power on the markets this will enlarge the supply while the demand is also going to be smaller. This would lead to lower prices since otherwise you cannot get off your cards. So if the value of the loot chests actually does differ in the mentioned range, the fair rental prices should get closer to 200 CP/DEC – not including all players lower Silver 3.
My solution
So for me the solution is definitely to rent the power to get to Silver 3, as long as it is not going to be too expensive. But since the rewards are a lot higher and I am only missing around 3,5k power, everything else wouldn’t be intelligent. If I count very pessimistic and would pay at a rate of 50 CP/DEC, I would need to pay 70 -140 DEC for that two day range, to get an average of 300 DEC more in rewards. Sounds really worth it, to me. Especially since I don’t want to rent out all my cards. Although renting out also lets my ECR regenerate, which would be another bonus to not playing.
This definitely leaves some things out. People are not only renting for power, but also for utility. Your not pay over 100 DEC for Llama and/or Kron just for the 2k power - and if so, that is not a very good decision on a financial standpoint. So neither am I excepting rental prices to drop significantly, nor would I think that they have to, because power is only one reason people are renting.
Daily Rewards going crazy!
After getting almost nothing for days, luck has been very kind to me recently!
Special thanks
Thanks a lot to @luthien12 for this amazing card!
Thanks to @aftersound and @wesquin703 for the DEC!
Cheers, @andy-plays
Very nice summary of the reward system. It helps a lot for new players to plan accordingly to the reward system.
The thing is, there is only so much theorycraft and analysis one can do. But like all games, RNG will always be RNG. You might get a GF Legend if you end in Silver, but how would you know you won't get it if you were in Bronze?
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