One of the main reasons of my decision at the time was the expected value from these packs according to Splintercards which has continued to be a great resource for the community. While I was not considering selling any of the cards revealed, the gap between HIVE Engine value and expected value were interesting to consider whether selling in the open market. However, given the recent declines in demand and price as well as the large availability of Chaos Legion packs, the liquidity in the markets pushed me to open them instead. Here is an overview of the details (at the time of opening):
| Edition | HIVE Engine Value | Splintercards Expected Value |
|---|---|---|
| Beta | $71.80 | $121.76 |
| Orbs | $63.89 | $87.82 |
| Dice | $39.13 | $25.62 |
| Untamed | $31.99 | $25.57 |
Before opening, I made sure I had enough potions on my account to ensure that I increased my chances for both Legendary and Gold Foil cards which are exponentially more valuable for these older Editions. It is an additional investment well worth it given the increased in expected values by using them. Luckily, I had a healthy balance on them given the many Seasons and Reward chests I have gotten them in. After doing so, I proceeded to open all packs with the results as presented below (at the time of opening):
| Edition | Amount | HIVE Engine Value | Expected Value | Actual Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 275 | $19,745 | $33,484 | $9,204 |
| Orbs | 200 | $12,778 | $17,564 | $3,072 |
| Dice | 150 | $5,970 | $3,843 | $2,582 |
| Untamed | 15 | $480 | $390 | $174 |
I opted not to add these values up so I would not get too disappointed with the results as luck was not really with me. I recognize that the values are so skewed by high valued cards but the variance was large than I would have expected. The main reason of these results is the fact that I did not get one single Gold Foil Legendary which are the cards that skew the value of packs and expected values. However, I have been lucky in the past and I normally expected to get only one for every 700 packs so probably expected in hindsight.
Despite these results, I am not unmotivated by the future as I immediately start to work on combining some to create cards for the rental market in the short term. I also believe that these latest additions to my Collection will be use for my future land empire I hope to achieve in the ecosystem. It may not even be enough for my needs consider the amount of Tracts I have and will need to manage!
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I was wondering if you would do it, I hope you do well with the cards you got!
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Not so good so far but will help farm my land in the future!