Part 11/14:
While Moscow might respond with diplomatic protests, military retaliations, or increased nuclear rhetoric, actual escalation remains uncertain. If Moscow perceives a real threat to its territory, it might escalate accordingly—possibly with threats of nuclear use or other acts of retaliation.
Conversely, some analysts argue that Moscow might seek to avoid a broader confrontation, especially if the perceived utility of nuclear threats diminishes against a now bolder Western stance. The effectiveness of Russia’s deterrence depends on whether it believes the risk of escalation outweighs potential gains.