Part 8/12:
Economic indicators further confirm the worsening situation. The number of job openings remains high, around 7.2 million, yet millions of Americans are unemployed, with nearly 2 million unemployed for over six months. The average weeks unemployed is roughly 24.5 weeks, a concerning upward trend that mirrors past recessionary peaks such as in 2011, when unemployment stretched for several months.
The scope of the decline is underscored by the decline in hiring plans—November data suggests the worst in a decade, with some months showing only a fraction of usual hiring activity. The narrative is consistent: the labor market is contracting, and the trend points towards a deeper recession on the horizon, regardless of official government statements.