Part 5/8:
Recent reports indicate that US business activity has contracted to a 16-month low, with rising inflation exerting pressure on consumers and labor markets. If these policies persist, they could trigger a recession scenario not only for the US but globally.
The Forecast: A Grim Outlook for Global Trade
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has downgraded its outlook for global merchandise trade. Previously predicting a 2.7% growth in 2025, the forecast has now reversed to a slight decline of 0.2%. For 2024, only modest growth of 2.9% is expected, with 2026 projections pulled down from 2.9% to 2.5%.