To all the Technical Analysts out there...
Lets have some fun with charts and the word 'prediction'. No this is NOT a Contest. But, there will be some prize involved.
This is the way investopedia defines Technical Analysis:
Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume.
If I explain my own way. It is the lunacy of looking at a candlestick chart from either a publicly available website or your preferred exchange or your preferred trading platform, at a particular time scale; and "predict" what the price 'may' do in 'near future'. Please notice there are lot of keywords out there. "particular time scale", "predict", "near future".... they are all important, and I will let you interpret them they way you want.
First full disclaimer, I love technical analysis (TA). I am using it for 28 years. It is part of my life. But because I love it, I know all the bad things associated with it, and can joke about it. Please understand that. I have lost a lot of money using TA, and I have gained a lot more using TA. I make mistake, you will make mistake, and Buffet (although he says he doesn't use it, but he does) makes mistake. Yeah, even the Sage of Omaha, the biggest fundamental investor of all times, makes mistake. There is no harm or shame in making mistake, but often it is hard for people to admit it. Hopefully you will get there in terms of admitting your mistakes.
Here is a sample chart for example: Plain old BTC/USD Daily out of Tradingview:
As of this writing it is trading $9335, after a big drop today :) Probably took out lot of the stops on its way down to 9100... see on this hourly chart below:
From about 9900 to 9100 it is about 800 point drop. Most people trading here, don't have a stop that wide. Am I right? So if you were long, thankfully you got stopped out, eh? Phew! Otherwise, even worse thing could have happened. :) And if you were short this morning! Kudos to you! When are you closing your trade?
Here is what to do
Post a chart of anything (must be legible) in the comments below. Crypto, Stock, Futures, Commodities.... anything that can have a public candlestick chart. Post the time of the comment in writing today, or whenever you see this post. Make a prediction based on your TA. Meaning you have to predict a trade where price will move in your favor and you will make a profit. It can be in the next day or 5 days. Come back and comment back with your result. It can't be scalping, and it can't be more than 5 days (because in long run we are all dead). Any time scale is fine. But if I see you trading on a 5 min chart, I will call your dad-mom, wife-husband, boy-girl friend.... whatever :) You know what I mean? Please don't trade on a 5-min chart.... actually don't even look at anything shorter than 15-min chart.... please!
If you convince me your trade worked, as you described in your first comment, you will get ....
10 hive
How's that? Lets have some fun.
PS. Please don't ask silly questions, try to trick, or be abusive or argumentative towards others. I person one chart only :)
The goal of this is to have fun
PPS, oh you ask me, where BTC will go in 2 days, 3 days, 5 days? Well I don't have the first damn clue.... honestly, but hey, I am the one paying money ;)
BAT, Hourly
Current price 2427
Target 2527
I'll be back with closing spoof trade if/when in the next couple of days. or be hiding somewhere :)
Posted Using LeoFinance
Cheers! Ash. May the force be with you!
Order completed whilst I was asleep :)
Great, so it was a real trade! You were lucky because the the bid probably just touched your order and reversed :)
Here is your winning! You are a model on how to participate :)
Thank you! :D
Whoops, voted the wrong comment :D
$MTN - Vail Resorts.
Using a 4-hour timeframe and Stochastic RSI.
Current price - $178.81
Target price - $184 by next Thursday
Excellent! Nice clean buy the dip set up. Like it already! May the force be with you!
Today $MTN closed at $185.33 and went up to $187 after hours. However, I don't believe this would be a valid trading idea, because I wouldn't be able to take this trade as originally intended. The next day after sharing the screenshot, on Friday $MTN opened at $184 which was the target price.
Well... you are quite right :)
Do you like to do a real trade again and try? Paper trades are rarely valid :)
Also let me point out another item. Your trade set up was on a 4 hr chart, and your target is well within the daily ATR. If you do that as a swing trade, over a long run you will never make any real money. What I am trying to say, your profit target was too conservative :)
This was my thinking of how to play this:
I am using a 4hr chart to give it enough time to play out within a week. But I am ready to sell as soon as 2.5-5% gains are reached. It may be in a day or four.
The reason I am choosing a conservative price target is that I want to trade the stock options instead of the underlying stock. My logic may be incorrect, but my understanding is when a stock gain 3-5%, options contracts on that stock will go up 15-25%.
I still haven't figure out how to evaluate risk/reward ratio though. Because of that, you are right, in a long run I may end up losing more than winning.
I will participate again next time when you do fun with charts again.
If you do option, target at a minimum of 50% gain... 100% better. Otherwise commission and bid-ask spread will eat you alive.
I wouldn’t recommend starting with option. That’s a fast way to blow up your account quite efficiently ;)
HIVEBTC
Current Price: 2594
Target Price: 2490
Time-frame: In 3 days
Only 100 points... yeah no brainer... but why so tiny target?
just starting small 😉
Forgive the rubbish chart, I am using my phone!
LTC, 24 hour chart
Current price 466334
Target 488500
It is written in the stars and I just happen to have quite the big telescope...
Nothing wrong with using the phone. I am writing this comment back on my phone as well. Without phone my hive presence will be cut down to 10%!
LTC, eh? Not bad. I say you have a natural knack for it. May the force be with you! ;)
I am exactly the same. If I didn't use my phone, I would hardly be here!!
LTC is an old favourite of mine ;0)
didn't work... right?
Nah, bit I think it might be on a slower burn. At least that's what the optimist in me says!!
BTCUSD
Weekly chart
Current price $9286
Target price $8750 in the next 2-3 weeks
Analysis made with the good old trendlines and moving averages 😀
In how many days? That’s critical..
Sorry just edited. In 2-3 weeks
Sounds good. But I said in 5 days or less :) Don’t worry BTC’s daily ATR is 400 plus, and you are looking for only a 500 point move. If you are right, it will easily get there in 5 days. Post a reply in 5 days time to check ;)
Ah ok. In that case, I will pass on the rewards :)
I don't do analysis that are too short-term 😀
Haha.. sure. A huge part of me actually hope my analysis is wrong and BTC actually breaks to the upside instead 😝. Let's see how it goes
checking the results; looks like didn't work...
Yea, I am actually happier being wrong in this case
SMART/BTC Pair
Trading at : 3392
Target : 3800 in 72 hours
Oversold bounce,eh? Nice. May the force be with you
Yep, that's what I'm targeting. I've seen this pair do this so many times.
looks like no bueno :)
Hehe seems so :P Lots to learn!
You should do some basic tutorial kind of posts, if time allows of course.
I am not good at this. maybe I still have a lot to learn again in predicting BTC trading charts. so I also want to see the results here, how professionals will see the charts in the next few days. Of course my will see the method here. and I gave up on this prediction.
Had no clue BTC dropped so much.
Hmm. I guess i dont care that much about short term fluctuations.
Im going to lose so much money. 😂
That's cool. I don't trade too much short term either. But I do some. Mostly for fun. I thought people may like it. And, Hey, I am willing to pay :)
Hey since you post ta stuff you should definitely use the native leo interface as it helps the token appreciate in price! This is why:
https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@steem.leo/why-posting-from-leofinance-is-one-of-the-best-ways-to-grow-our-token-and-community
Plus, there is now a tax burn so you receive less tokens when not using the interface!
https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@steem.leo/native-leofinance-content-now-earns-10-more-leo-a-few-interface-updates
Anyways I think everyone wants his token to carry more value, so I figured to inform you. Also big holders and curators definitely show a preference for posts via the native interface ;)
See ya around and sorry for bugging you
Well said Mr. @trumpman
As a big Leo holder I confirm I show preference to Leo posts made through leofinance.io
Posted Using LeoFinance
No problem. Thanks. I didn’t know much about Leo, still know little. I will give it a try.
Awesome. That's just the basics, there are more to learn and more to come so you may want to get more involved with the tribe! Good to have you onboard
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Hello appreciated @azircon.
I hope you are safe and in the company of your loved ones.
The sole intent of this message is to thank you for the solid support that you gave me in the unfortunate recent situation that I had to live with jaguar.force.
I don't know the reasons why you decided to give the downvote, but I can assume it was in solidarity with me.
I hope this serves as a lesson for this person, who has a way of acting that only causes revulsion.
You can count on me for any activity that I can help you with. As co-founder of Project Hope Community, I promise that this will be your home when you decide to approach us.
It is a real honor that you have done this for me. With all my heart, thank you.
I neither support project.hope, nor you. Simply because I believe that it is a pyramid scheme using the reward pool. If you remember I made my thinking visible to you earlier in steem.
Now, your comment on my post here is unrelated to the content of this post. Although the tone is nothing but polite, but still I find alternate motive in the comment. Please don’t reply to this comment cluttering my feed.
If you have anything to say about technical analysis, which is the subject of this post, I will be happy to entertain you.
Thanks for the technical analysis fun game 💯
I wish you posted these more often. I felt like i learned a lot from this, still have a lot to learn however.
1 Hour chart
Current price 9377
Target price 9550
Within 2 days. :)