Yesterday, I covered a short technical article on Hive, on 4H and 1H timeframes.
Hive is a relatively new blockchain in town, but I believe it will give us some really good insight if we can compare the past performance of Steem with Hive and see how everything fits in!
As of now, we can see that Hive and Steem are have a very similar market cap. we can assume Hive and Steem to be fundamentally same (without the centralization bullshit :P)
Let’s dive a bit deeper into the technical understanding of Steem to understand where Hive is sitting right now and where it can go! :D
Let’s first do a weekly analysis on Steem/BTC
Overall bias on $Steem: Bearish
Steem/BTC 1W
Chart 1:
Link to chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/WXQHnO7R/
Overall Bias: Bearish (Let's check other factors also)
Critical zones have been marked on the chart!
Points to note:
- We can see that it broke down below the massive (bearish) Descending Triangle pattern around May-June last year. Though we can’t fully lean on this analysis, as BTC also broke down from a similar pattern and again recovered above it!
Steem/BTC 1W
Chart 2:
Link to chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/UBK4F7R6/
Overall Bias: Bearish
Critical zones have been marked on the chart!
Points to note:
- If we extend the previous support, we can assume that it did a bearish retest of the previous support (from which it broke down around May last year)
- The recent "bearish retest it did was largely fueled by the Hard fork of steem, which gave birth to our new Hive community. (Not good for steem)
Let's see one more perspective below.
Steem/BTC 1W
Chart 3:
Link to chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oc3YS2Ty/
Overall Bias: Bearish
Critical zones have been marked on the chart!
Points to note:
- Price made a lower high, and RSI made a higher high (we are considering only RSI as of now, to assess the underlying strength of the asset).
- This signals a hidden bearish RSI Divergence, implying we may continue to see a potential downtrend of Steem in future.
Steem/BTC 1D
Chart:
Link to chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Oc3YS2Ty/
Overall Bias: Neutral
Critical zones have been marked on the chart!
Point to note:
- We can't really figure out any clear trend in price, except the small lower low; as the action was too choppy and was largely fueled by several news/events.
- If you are in Steem, we can assume, it can be safe to stay with a stop loss around the zone marked
Lets now compare Hive with the Steem price action:
Steem/BTC 1D and Hive/BTC 1D, compared
Chart:
Link to the chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xCnq2lrX/
Overall Bias:
- Neutral/Bearish on Steem (unless it can take out the resistance around 8000 -ish
- Bullish on Hive (unless it breaks below the higher low (in chart!)
Critical zones have been marked on the chart!
Points to note:
- We can't really figure out any clear trend in price, as the action was too choppy and was largely fueled by several news/events.
- If you are in Steem, it can be safe to stay with a stop loss around the zone marked
Lets see if Hive takes out that 10000-ish levels, where it can go!
Time for the moon? 😜
Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lJDmcb5u/
Lets see and see the gains it can make if it can ever reclaim the previous Steem all time high:
Lol, a 32000+% gain? Are you kidding me? 😝
link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/34xuXTq5/
(this is not financial advice though, and I am not claiming that it will reach, but it may reach; so DYOR!)
I have covered a recent article about my analysis on Hive here:
https://leofinance.io/hive-167922/@beehivetrader/usdhive-breakout-where-is-it-going
Additional supporting points:
- Fundamentally speaking, we can see that developers are moving out of Steem to support Hive
- Steem is right now far more centralised, which may not be good for Steem in the long run
- We are able to see a lot of new initiatives on top of Hive, I'm going to mention a few people later on, in a separate article.
I've been following the developments going on around Hive since the time I joined (been only 2 weeks though) and I am going to cover a brief article later, on a separate article, which will complement the Bullish sentiments of Hive :D So stay tuned for one more update soon!!
All I can say is: The overall outlook of this community looks superb at least to me.
Gif credits: @thepeakstudio (thanks for taking time to add cool animations which we can use)
@ecoinstats maybe you want to check and put in some comments here as well if I am able to cover a part of your request as in my previous post :D
Dont forget to follow me on twitter: https:www.twitter.com/beehivetrader
Posted Using LeoFinance
Given that we are coming to the end of the powerdown period for people who have been selling steem and buying hive how do you think that will effect the price of hive given that they must have been supporting it to some level during the past 6 weeks?. I guess having the major accounts loosing their steem would have put a dampner on this support but still all the dolphins and minnows doing this would also add up. I have bought about 70k hive by powering down steem for example.
Thanks for stopping by! :)
Yes I personally feel Hive will outperform Steem in future.
We can consider a few points here:
Lot of power downs happening on Steem.
Since most people got tokens in a 1:1 ratio,
I'm personally confident that once all the minnows and dolphins start selling Steem for Hive (and assuming they dont sell Hive)
price will definitely go up much faster, as Most of the supply is already locked into their accounts.
Also, currently, I see Hive price supporting up very well, which will encourage more
people to eventually move on to Hive, of course, a more important point here, is more decentralisation.
I have observed some people who sold both their Hive and Steem tokens and are waiting to get in again.
(some of my close friends did that as well, so I believe they will eventually have to choose and focus on only one of them)
Hive is currently more favorable, so once they start doing that, I believe Hive will start going up. :)
Another critical point: I see a lot of big developers leaving Steem, to join Hive. I believe if this becomes a trend, everyone will follow soon :P
I will do some research and come up with another article as well, on future price action considering the power downs on Steem, and powerups on Hive
i know it is shitty even to think about that, but did justin helped decentralization of hive.
Posted Using LeoFinance
Yes; it has given all the small players a higher Steem price to dump into shielded from the large scale dumping those major accounts were doing.
That said it makes you sick to think about it that ones account balance can just be terminated like that. The ball is still in Bittrex's court yet. Hopefully the funds are feed at some stage for a mega steem dump and hive pump after we have all powered up.
We are reading your posts - and appreciate the analysis. We have made reference to several of your posts in our most recent update.
We appreciate your comments on technicals, as we are much more comfortable with fundamentals, and fundamentally we think that STEEM has only one way out now, to select 'champion' projects to support, and their success (pumps or no pumps) will depend on how well they support 'champion projects'.
HIVE on the other hand is almost an open slate. It is only burdened by the same governance model that caused the flight from steem, but perhaps with more awareness and a somewhat less problematic distribution (for now) there is opportunity for improvement. Governance improvements should take center stage in the first several HIVE HFs, or it probably won't happen.
But other than that very well known risk, HIVE will become what we build on it, and it does seem like there is an increasing cadre of people wanting to call HIVE home and help it help their dreams succeed.
I appreciate that you are liking my posts :)
Distribution is something even I noticed, I believe Hive will really be a better place, and ma even get mass adoption if the distribution is taken care of.
I'm still new here, and I dont know many things how the governance works, so I'm still learning, I'll be able to comment on them once I learn more :)
As of now I do see a lot of Hive (same thing happened with Steem also) being accumulated on top (lets say 20 accounts) though I still cant comment how good or bad that is.
I checked this application, maintained by @hivebuzz here:
https://hivebuzz.me/ranking
I did see the top 100 accounts: (by sorting HP in descending order)
I observed many of the accounts have just delegated their Hive power to Bid Bots and Curation engines to receive passive income.
So I believe a lot will depend on those Curator accounts on how they curate content.
(I'm still not sure how good or bad that is though)
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