Does the market value of cards influence the outcome of battles?

in LeoFinance2 months ago (edited)

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I did an investigation into the outcome of ten randomly selected battles to find out if there's a correlation between the market value of cards in a deck and the outcome of a battle.

It is important to note that there are multiple factors that influence the outcome of battles but for this analysis, I'll exclusively consider the market value of cards in each deck that goes into battle.

The aim of this random selection is to find out if money is all that matters in a splinterlands battle.

The randomness is not going to be done by a software, so it'll be somewhat crude. However, I'll ensure that no name appears twice in the list and to achieve this, I'll be selecting one random battle in every league rating.

This means that I'll take one battle each from Champion, Diamond, Gold, Silver and Bronze. This sample size may not necessarily be perfect for the experiment but I think it could give some insight.

Fixing the variables

To calculate the market value of each card, I'll take the best price one could buy a single copy of the card and then multiply it by the number of cards that would get it to that level.

SO without further ado, lets check out the random battles I selected from the different rankings, to see if money is all that matters in a Splinterlands battle. We'll start from the lowest league and keep checking until we get to the highest category.

Bronze League

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link to battle

I'm not going to lie, I was beyond surprised when I saw the two teams in this battle. I mean, these two teams could really give you a run for your money, no matter which league you're battling in.

Both teams have fairly similar teams and even their arrangements are quite similar. Now, lets check out the market value of each team.

Total market value of @michiel87 team is broken down into;

  • Summoner: $389
  • Tank: $114
  • Alcehmist:$175
  • Rear guard: $2275
  • Total: $2953

Total market value of team @herox is broken down into

  • Summoner: $389
  • Tank: $8
  • Ooze: $0.89
  • Rear guard: $165
  • Total: $562.89
Winner of the battle was Herox

Despite having cards that are valued at almost 1/4 of the value of the other team, Herox came out victorious. This battle doesn't prove anything in isolation, however, it does show that using expensive gold foils and owning expensive cards doesn't necessarily assure victory.

Silver League

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Link to battle

Total market value of team @yozen is;

  • Summoner: $1110
  • Tank: $447
  • Ooze: $10.68
  • Serpie: $51
  • Lord of fire: $387
  • Imp: $35.52
  • Alchemist: $39.5
    Total: $2080.7

Total market value of team @dcx02 is:

  • Summoner: $434.5
  • Tank: $8
  • Birdie: $18
  • Lobster: $62.8
  • Ooze: $22.5
  • Magic blaster: $447
  • Ranged Blaster: $71.7
  • Total: $1064.5
Winner of the battle was Yozen

Yozen's cards were almost twice the value of their opponent and they came out victorious in this battle.

Gold League

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Link to battle

Total market value of team @masq:

  • Summoner: $750
  • Tank: $132
  • Tree healer: $143.5
  • Princess Healer: $156
  • Swamp Thing: $1495
  • The chef: $172
  • Alchemist: $39.5
  • Total: $2,888

Total value of team @farmkids:

  • Summoner: $1825
  • Super Tank: $825
    Total: $2650
Winner of the battle was Masq

Both teams had very close market value but Masq edged their oppononet in price and the battle.

Diamond League

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link to battle

Total market value of team @simoneg

  • Summoner: $2242.5
  • Tank: $261.08
  • Sneaker: 679.4
  • Serpie: $340
  • Golden Chicken: $114
  • Total: $3636.98

Total market value of team @zugzies

  • Summoner: $1035
  • Tank: $1632.28
  • Hungry Birdie: $303
  • Brownie: $680.8
  • Total: 3651.08
Winner of the battle was Simoneg

In this battle, Simoneg's cards were slightly less expensive than their opponent but they still came out victorious

Champions league

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Link to battle

Total value of team @notaboutme

  • Summoner: $3025
  • Tank: $649
  • Zalran: $484
  • Golden Monkey: $589
  • Total: $4747

Total value of team @cryptoreaper

  • Summoner: $3025
  • Tank: $573.85
  • Spider: $1641
  • Shaman: $1010
  • Lord of fire: $1419
  • Zalran: $484
  • Total: $8152.85
Winner of the battle was Cryptoreaper

Cryptoreaper had a far more expensive deck and came out victorious in this battle.

Important points

  • Each battle was selected randomly from "top battles" of each category, so it is safe to say that these are the top brawlers.
  • Strategy and battle rules are not considered even though they often influence the outcome of battles.
  • I selected each battle by going to "top battles", then close my eyes and scroll a couple of times.

Observation: 60:40 Split between Expensive and cheaper cards

  • As we rise up the ranks, the value of cards used for battle also increases
  • Out of the 5 battles considered, 3 teams with higher value came out victorious. So, it is safe to say there's a correlation between the market value of teams and the outcome of battles.
  • Strategy and other factors also play a very important role in the outcome of battles, as observed by the 2 teams that won.

Summary

The outcome of a battle is not necessarily dependent on the market value of your deck. However, upgrading your cards, which invariably increases the market value of your deck increases your chances of winning but this also requires strategy.

So yes money is important to rise up the ranks but it is not the ONLY factor. If you employ decent strategy, you can still rise up the ranks.




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Hi, friend how are you? i wanna learn more about the game i think i found the correct place.
Thanks for the post!!!

Using gold cards in battle attracts more DEC

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Yes but if you lose the battle because you want to use your expensive gold foil, it won't change much

Ha, I remember that Battle! It was a Poison one and I thought I could protect my Magnor using the Zalran Efreet. However, the Efreet died before it could even us its cleansing effect, completely demolishing my strategy ;).

In my view, expensive decks can make a difference, but it is VERY ruleset dependent. For instance, very low mana battles tend to bias towards expensive decks (e.g. epic Beta summoners, Dice legendaries), while e.g. the Rise of the Commons battles naturally allow a good chance for the cheap decks :).

If you swapped position of Zalran and the monkey, you would have had a better chance though 🤔. When Magnor goes into rage mode, he'd probably blast through everything.

There's so much I have to learn about strategy. I know a little but not enough. Some cards I never use are so expensive and valuable it makes me feel like I'm sitting on Gold and I don't even know it.

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nice guide bro

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