Drift week for markets as earnings ends. Kept adding to uranium stocks - like it is a compulsion when value is around
Portfolio News
In a week where S&P 500 rose 1.26% and Europe dropped 0.14%, my pension portfolio dropped a bigger 2.16%. Every region went down - biggest drags were lithium (e.g., Latin Resources (LRS.AX) down 9.6%), uranium (e.g., Centrus (LEU) down 12.2%), solar power, marijuana (e.g., Canopy Growth (WEED.TO) down 16.9%), silver mining (e.g., Stroud Resources (SDR.V) down 20.8%). A week of ouch given the way the portfolio is leaning to big themes that take time to develop.
Big movers of the week were NeuRizer (NRZ.AX) (75%), Northern Minerals (NTU.AX) (30.6%), Azincourt Energy (AAZ.V) (25%), Genmin (GEN.AX) (25%), Lanthanein Resources (LNR.AX) (25%), 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) (17.1%), Resource Development Group (RDG.AX) (13.3%), GrainCorp (GNC.AX) (11.4%), APM Human Services International (APM.AX) (10.8%)
Hard to pick themes - alternate energy (3 stocks), takeovers (1 stocks)
With earnings season closing down focus swings to inflation and jobs reports. Jobs data at the end of the week suggests US economy is heading for a "no landing" scenario. Markets however are itching for poor jobs data as that could bring rate cuts. Especially true in the week European Central Bank and Bank of Canada cut rates.
Crypto Drifts - again
Bitcoin price pushed higher testing $70k again and then drifted just under ending the week 1% higher with a trough to peak range of 5.4%. Note the dip - Jun 7 midday.
Ethereum price was drifting the other way ending the week 3% lower with a peak to trough range of 7.4%
Something unusual hit crypto markets on Friday June 7 on the 1200 bar - example AAVE dumped 15% and then bounced back half way.
Basic Attention Token (BAT) the token associated with Brave browser dropping 11% and keeping down 16% lower. Going to guess this is the time the US jobs report was issued - strengthened the US Dollar
One going against the flow despite the Friday dip was Injective (INJBTC) up 26% at one stage.
Pump and dump for Shirtum (SHI) up 48% and then giving two thirds away
Pull back and bounce for Uniswap (UNI) - need a bounce a little bigger to hit the 50 profit target - 2nd attempt was only 40%
Uranium Holdings
Trading markets seem to have become preoccupied with the decline in the spot price for uranium with price making a series of lower lows over the last few weeks. Stock prices have followed suit. What the inexperienced traders do not not grasp is the uranium buyers do their buying in the term market.
Uranium went for a slide on the back of this during the week with a 9.7% drop in valaution of my holdings. Holding as a percentage of portfolio dropped to 13.1% from 13.2% with overall portfolios also going down across all 4 portfolios.
The mix of holdings sees IsoEnergy (ISO.V) and Yellow Cake plc (YCA.L) rising one place each pushing enCore Energy (EU) down two places. Cameco (CCJ) rises back into Top 10 displacing Energy Fuels (UUUU). Share of Others rises 0.1 percentage point and now has 3 new holdings - so much for saying last week it was time to rationalise. Some of the adds came in ASX fractional share portfolio
Lithium Holdings
Did do a similar analysis in Lithium holdings to get a better feel for the mix of holdings. Overall holding in lithium is around 6% of total portfolios with the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) at 50% of holdings. The rest of the mix is way out of line with the Top 15 holdings in ETF - time to tidy that up.
Did map all the Top 15 holdings in the ETF against the ETF going back to the cycle high. The ETF has dropped 35% with the worst performer Albemarle (ALB) the largest producer. The value adding players - battery makers and the likes are ahead - example TDK (6762.T) ahead 58%
Also mapped portfolio holdings against the ETF. The worst performer - Lithium Universe (LU7.AX) is developing a facility in Canada and is led by Iggy Chan who built Galaxy Resources, now merged into Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) which is running in line with the ETF. Leo Lithium (LLL) will come out of the data as they have been forced to sell their mine in Mali and will be delisted as soon as the deal is settled. Plan is to bank profits in Pilbara Minerals (PLS.AX) and Latin Resources (LRS.AX) and redeploy up the value chain.
Bought
Aura Energy Limited (AEE.AX): Uranium. Share purchase allocation from prior week at 16% discount to weighted average cost in personal portfolio. SPP does included listed $0.30 strike options expiring May 2026. The Tiris mine in Mauritania is scheduled to commence production in 2026 - the options value could become important then.
Earths Energy (EE1.AX): Alternate Energy. Earths Energy announced replacement of CEO with a geothermal industry veteran. That popped the share price. Increased holding in personal portfolio to average down entry price.
Sunpower (SPWR): Solar Power. With price opening at $3.66 (Jun 3), feel a degree of confidence that the down days for Sunpower may be behind. Added another parcel of shares (at a higher price than last week) to average down overall holding cost. Also bought back the 3.5 strike sold puts as the number of contracts have now been bought as shares. Locks in 188% profit on the buy back - not bad for 2 weeks work. Wrote covered call for 4.46% premium with 48.8% price coverage.
Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): US Oil. Read the news
US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on Friday called for more nuclear reactors to be built in the United States and worldwide
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/money/us-official-wants-more-nuclear-reactors-built/ar-BB1nup3P
- in that speech she said 98 reactors needed - other pundits say 200. The harsh reality is there will not be enough uranium for quite some time - that extends he life for natural gas. Added a contrarian parcel to two portfolios. Of note is both portfolios could have holdings in Marathon Oil (MRO) assigned on covered calls. Wrote July expiry covered call for 1.2% premium with 0.3% price coverage.- too tight - expecting price to dip with oil prices - will buy back if it does and go further out-the-money.
Chart shows the comparison with Marathon Oil (MRO - the blue line) - lagging by over 200 percentage points.
ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A. (ENC.MC): Paper Products. Replaced stock assigned early last week at same strike as assigned.
Microequities Asset Management Group (MAM.AX): Small Caps. Averaged down entry in personal portfolio.
IsoEnergy Ltd (ISO.V): Uranium. Read Uranium Investors weekly report - their words - screaming buy. I did to average down holdings in personal portfolio.
F3 Uranium Corp (FUU.V): Uranium. Used a down day to add to holdings in managed portfolio. So much for saying that last week was a good time to start consolidating. Will stick to core list holdings for any averaging down. Pending order at a lower entry hit in pension portfolio, the day after making 4 tranches each bought at a slightly lower price.
Peninsula Energy (PEN.AX): Uranium. Ever since stock capitulated after the capex blowout, have had a pending order in personal portfolio to buy below the market. Gives a chance for the portfolio to grab back what it gave away then. No surprise on the timing of the order execution - 2nd day after retail offer at $0.10 a share closed. Price normally moves down toward the offer price and recovers after.
Anfield Energy Inc (AEC.V): Uranium. Anfiled has been suspended from trading for several months following unanticipated change in auditor practices which led to a requirement to reverse an asset impairment charge related to the Shootaring Canyon mill. That impairment has now been removed and stock relisted.
As Anfield is in a good position to recommence production in US was keen to add to holdings. Did that and lowered entry price a little. Trading volume is low - think investors are a bit apprehensive.
At penny stock levels, trading costs in Canada are high = 2.1% of face value. Stock has to move more than 4% to get to profit.
Yellow Cake plc (YCA.L): Uranium. Watched price plummet 10% soon after start of trading (Jun 6) - a good chance to add more physical uranium to two portfolios that did not have a holding. Hard to know what drove the drop in price - this news is two days old
The uranium oxide concentrate holding company said Tuesday the delivery follows its exercise of a right to purchase the compound of uranium at $65.50 per pound for a total of $100.0 million.
I would have thought that taking delivery of uranium at $65.50 per pound was a good thing given spot price is around $88. Now there are concerns about the need for a capital raise - no news just concerns.
Buying on the price drop
ASX Portfolio
The segment reports trading in ASX fractional share portfolio. Trade entries are made based on stock screens looking for undervalued stocks (price to book, price earnings, price to sales) that are showing technical signs of breaking a downtrend. Exits are made at 35% profit or 25% if 52 week high is lower than 35% advance. New buys are in $400 lots. Scale ins and top ups in $200 lots
New Buys
Stanmore Resources Ltd (SMR.AX): Coal Mining. Dividend yield 3.50%
Chart shows price making a short term uptrend. despite all the climate change agenda, coal is not dead yet with two other holdings in the portfolio under sell orders around 52 week highs
Auto Invest
Made a change to auto-invest rules. Reduced the amount going to index investments and added in a uranium theme - partly in ASX-listed uranium ETF, one uranium enrichment stock and 3 other stocks picked only because they have the word uranium in their names.
Global Uranium and Enrichment Ltd (GUE.AX): Uranium Enrichment. Part explorer, part enrichment developer. Next Investors idea. Working on this chart - rising price for enrichment
GUE has a 21.9% stake in a uranium enrichment company, which achieved a major milestone in the development of its technology “a separation factor approximately three times higher than the enrichment factor.”
Silex Systems Ltd (SLX.AX): Uranium Enrichment. On UI list.
Global X Uranium ETF AUD (ATOM.AX): Uranium.
Elevate Uranium Ltd (EL8.AX): Uranium. Namibia explorer with closest to surface open cast mine plan.
Terra Uranium Ltd (T92.AX): Uranium. New add - Athabasca Basin explorer
Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (VAS.AX): Australian Index. Increased the allocation by $40 a month. Dividend yield 3.8%
Vanguard MSCI Index International Shares ETF (VGS.AX): International Index. Reduced the allocation to $100 a month. Dividend yield 1.6%
Scale Ins
Monadelphous Group Ltd (MND.AX): Mining Services. Dividend yield 3.80%
G8 Education Ltd (GEM.AX): Childcare. Dividend yield 4.00%
Top Ups
Coles Group Ltd (COL.AX): Retail. Dividend yield 3.90%
Chart shows third entry as price cycles in a narrow band above the head and shoulders pattern signalling the bottom. Now is the time to get back to mid 2023 levels and exit.
TPG Telecom Ltd (TPG.AX): Telecom. Dividend yield 3.90%
Chart shows price has broken below the channel it was trading in for most of 2023 - looking also for a breakeven exit. This is also a competitive sector and TPG apperars to be competing well - certainly bettter than my ISP (whose service is terrible).
Healius Ltd (HLS.AX): Healthcare. Pathology is a somewhat embattled sector - looking to find an exit at breakeven or a takeover.
Chart shows price breaking the downtrend and bouncing along a support level looking a bit of a break upwards
Hedging Trades
iShares Silver Trust (SLV): Silver. I keep reading tweets about the shortage of silver in China.
Yet silver price has dropped nearly 10% in the two weeks after topping $30. Added a small parcel in pension portfolio to build a new hedging position. 0.48% 10.4%
Did the digging to understand the shortage driven by silver demand in China to go into solar panels. The deficit is structural - prices cannot keep falling in the face of these deficits (unless solar panel producers can find alternates). Time to dig into the miners to see who is well placed.
Next chart compares the top 15 holdings in Global X Silver Miners ETF (SLV) to silver futures (SIN2024 - the bars) going back to the cycle low. The top 5 holdings are labelled and account for 45% of the ETF with Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) accounting for 21%. Simple approach would be to buy WPM as it most closely tracks the silver price. My thought is to buy two of the laggards in the top 5 (both of which have held in the past) as they can make up a gap.
Pan American Silver (PAAS): Silver Mining. Added a parcel in managed portfolio - it has the best margin structure at the moment. Wrote covered call for 1.2% premium with 8.8% price coverage - must say do like getting paid to hold hedging positions.
Cryptocurrency
Binance Delisting
Binance is delisting a few tokens (Waves, Omisego and NEM). Transferred holdings of WAVES and XEM over to Gate.io. Will trade them out there when market recovered from the selling volume shock
Income Trades
Only 5 covered calls written in two portfolios - all US.
Naked Puts
Wrote a few naked puts at levels would be comfortable buying stock
- Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR.L): Aerospace/Defense. Return 2.67% Coverage 2.1%
- Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RR.L): Aerospace/Defense. Return 3.06% Coverage 2.1% - different strike
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE): Uranium. Return 3% Coverage 2.1%
Rolled a few naked puts to reduce current exercise risk
- Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR): Internet Services. 1.6% loss on buy back 49.8% cash positive.
- Invesco Solar ETF (TAN): Solar Power. 70% profit on buy back 21.6% cash positive.
Credit Spreads
No change
Exercise risk on sold puts is a bit tight in personal annd managed portfolios. Pension portfolio has improcved with the two sold puts kicked down the road.
Data is from Jun 10 - one more sold put position has moved into exercise risk zone.
ResourcesCautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
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Gate.io offers a solid range of coins many of which have been delisted elsewhere. Have chosen to share the commission rebates. 40% is the rate - split 30% for me and 10% for any people you invite. https://mclnks.com/gateio
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June 3-7, 2024
Truly, there are so many altcoins on Kucoin but ae don’t even know the one to go for. Some of them get rugged at the end of the day which is quite painful especially when you have invested a lot of money
Over the years I have learned a simple strategy. Focus on the top 10 coins by market capitalisation excluding the tethered coins. I also exclude TRN as Justin Sun is a centralist control freak that destroyed Steemit - out of which Hive hard forked.
For my part I was investing in tokens that grown the most in market cap over 6 months. Lots if those were rug pulls. Hence the focus now on top 10
👏 Keep Up the good work on Hive ♦️ 👏
❤️ @bhattg suggested sagarkothari88 to upvote your post ❤️
🙏 Don't forget to Support Back 🙏
Thanks - nobody shares their investing actions. I wish they did as this is how I learn to do better
If I make a trade, will I go to coin tracking info to update it or how can I link my trades to it?
Cointracking has two ways to update your trades. 1. Use an API you get from your exchange and it updates automatically using the API 2. Upload them manually using a CSV file. Download one from your exchange or create one manually using the format Cointracking suggests.