Europe and US markets diverge and risk on for commodity stocks makes for a tough week. A few small adds in uranium and a few sold puts assigned early in Europe.
Portfolio News
In a week where S&P 500 rose 1.64% and Europe dropped 3.1%, my pension portfolio dropped another 2.69% but was better than Europe. Two weeks in a row portfolio has done worse than US markets
Portfolio was smashed by commodity drops and Europe. Examples: De Grey Mining (DEG.AX) down 10.6% despite a rising gold price. In lithium, Latin Resources (LRS.AX) down 14.9%, Pilbara Minerals (PLS.AX) down 11.2%,. In rare earths, Northern Minerals (NTU.AX) down 29.3% despite making the big movers last week. Every European stock dropped led by SocGen down 14.9%. Japan sagged too with decliners leading advancers after BoJ stayed firm on negative interest rates but scaled back bond holdings. US stock declines were widespread in lithium, solar, internet, network equipment and semiconductors. This tells me the advances in US were thinly spread.
Big movers of the week were NeuRizer (NRZ.AX) (62.5%), NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE) (38.8%), Stroud Resources (SDR.V) (15.8%), Honey Badger Silver (TUF.V) (15.8%), Bapcor (BAP.AX) (14.7%), Titan Minerals (TTM.AX) (12.5%), Furukawa Battery Co (6937.T) (10%)
A short list of 7 stocks makes the big movers list with two silver miners in the list. Bapcor is subject of a takeover offer from Bain Capital - price has not reached the offer price yet. Neurizer is in the process of restructuring their urea plans after a deal fell through - went into trading halt.
Markets were a bit nervous ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting but eased off when the inflation numbers came in a bit softer than expected - taking S&P500 and Nadsdaq to recored closes on different days
Underlying the headline news is the market becoming uncomfortable with risk assets. The last headline attests to that as does the skew in my portfolio performance on the week. They are skewed to commodities and it shows. Fortunate also not skewed to Europe as well
Europe deserves its own mention.
Hard left took a drubbing in European Parliament elections with a swing to the centre right and some power eking across to hard right especially in France. Emmanuel Macros called a snap election in France. That rumbled French bond markets with the yields widening to 74 basis points above Germany. All European markets went with those yields
A quote from the SFR article about petrol on the fire
Marine Le Pen, the warhorse of the French right, is no stranger to election-night speeches. But pretty much every time she has given one, she has been conceding defeat.
Last Sunday night, though, she was able to flick the switch to triumphalism. Her party, National Rally, had just scored its best-ever result, winning almost one-third of the French vote in the elections for the European Parliament.
Crypto Drops
Bitcoin price tried for 2 bars to go higher and then sagged ending the week 5% lower with a peak to trough range of 7.4%
Ethereum price started out the same but got some buyers from the middle of the week ending 1.8% lower with a peak to trough range of 9.4%
Uniswap found buyers with a 29% pop - was enough momentum to get to touch a pending profit target (reporting next week)
Stellar (XLMBTC) went against the down draft with a 6% rise after the low test bar seen the week before.
Kucoin (KCSBTC) also went against the trend with a 7.5% rise - some way to go before it recovers from the steep drop when SEC filed suit in Q1
Uranium Holdings
No update this week suffice to say share of portfolio went up to 13.2% as portfolios dropped more than uranium and there were a few adds. Will get back on track next report and will cover two weeks from June 7.
Bought
De Grey Mining Limited (DEG.AX): Gold Mining. Stock allcoated on retail offer entitlement. Replaces some of stock sold in October 2023 at 5.2% discount and was at a discount to market price at time offer was accepted. Not for long.
Lifeist Wellness (LFST.V): Canadian Marijuana. Stock has appeared on the big movers list a few times - doubled position size in personal portfolio to average down entry price.
Delivra Health Brands (DHB.V): Canadian Marijuana. Stock has appeared on the big movers list a few times - doubled position size in pension portfolio to average down entry price. Been invested in this stock a long while.
Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX): Mining Services. Noted in analysis of lithium stocks done last week that Global X Lithium ETF (LIT) has a large holding and stock has outperformed the ETF. The company operates through five segments: Mining Services, Iron Ore, Lithium, Energy, and Other Commodities. Part of their business model is to buy into mining operations to win mining services contracts and to participate in sector upside.
Chart shows the performance gap with lithium sector. This trade is first step in reducing the share of holdings for the commodity lithium producers inthe portfolios - will waiti for aup days to do the selling
Neurizer (NRZ.AX): Fertilizer. Neurizer has been on top of the big movers list two weeks in a row (now three). Added a parcel to personal portfolio doubling position size to average down entry price. NeuRizer aims to be Australia’s leading manufacturer of urea fertiliser and is working on a carbon neutral approach - timelines to production are some way off.
Global Uranium and Enrichment (GUE.AX): Uranium Enrichmnet. Used a down day on ASX to scale into holding. Global announced results of improved enrichment outcomes from Ubaryon, in which they control a 21.9% stake. Ubaryon is a private Australian company which is developing and commercialising a unique uranium enrichment technology based on the chemical separation of naturally occurring uranium isotopes. A significant feature of the Ubaryon Enrichment Technology is that it eliminates the need for conversion from uranium oxide or yellowcake (UO4 or U3O8) to gaseous uranium (UF6) and the need for deconversion from UF6 to uranium oxide. Removing conversion and deconversion simplifies the enrichment process and allows for additional flexibility in the nuclear fuel cell supply chain.
Coty Inc (COTY): Consumer Products. Assigned early on sold put - breakeven after two months of put selling $10.35 - 4.7% premium to $9.88 close (Jun 11). TSP recently added to holdings in their portfolio
The company recently launched a new line of premium scents under its luxury brand Infiniment Coty Paris, and the project was presented as Coty Inc. (NYSE:COTY)’s "most ambitious and most premium fragrance project to date." As per the company, the collection will eventually consist of fourteen different perfumes.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-date-night-fragrance-2024-202030808.html
Saw a tweet highlighting the surge in volumes on Cameco (CCJ) and NexGen (NXE) in the last few minutes of trade (Jun 11). Prompted by that to scale into pension fund holdings on ASX at the ASX open (Jun 12).
The chart shows the same thing happening the following day - maybe went a day early.
Bannerman Resources (BMN.AX): Uranium. Etango open cast mine, Namibia. 2027 production
Boss Energy (BOE.AX): Uranium. Honeymon ISR mine, South Australia. Producing with ramp up from 2025. Owns 30% of EnCore Alta Mesa mine - producing again announcement in the week
Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL.AX): Uranium. Tumas open cast, Namibia. producing from 2026 - financing round just completed.
Paladin Resources (PDN.AX): Uranium. Langer Heinrich underground mine, Namibia. Back in production in 2024.
These investments in ASX listed holdings increases pension fund holdings in Australian Dollar denominated stocks. To date the portfolio is heavily weighted to US Dollar.
Anfield Energy Inc (AEC.V): Uranium. Permitted to reopen Utah based mill - production from 2026. Average down entry price in pension portfolio.
Peninsula Energy Limited (PEN.AX): Uranium. Reopening Lance ISR mine in Wyoming. Production toward end of 2024. Scaled into holding in personal portfolio at lower entry price than last exit.
ENGIE SA (ENGI.PA): French Utility. Assigned early on naked put in managed portfolio. Have been writing naked puts on the stock for 4 years on and off. Price just seems to track sideways - breakeven after all the sold puts is €12.80 which is 6.1% discount to €13.63 close (Jun 13). Dividend yield 10.49%. Just missed the ex date.
Société Générale SA (GLE.PA): French Bank. Assigned early on naked put in personal portfolio on the back of a 10% drop in price in two trading sessions . French stocks took a hammering with the surprise early election announced by Emmanuel Macron after the drubbing his coalition received in Europen Parliament elections.
Breakeven €25.43 and €25.72 on two tranches - some way to recover that with covered call writing. Dividend yield 4.06%. Just missed the ex date.
Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML): Lithium. Assigned early on naked put in personal portfolio.
Price had been holding the short term uptrend line and sold put was set up when there was a chance stock would be assgined. It was.
Sold
Linde plc (LIN): Speciality Chemicals. Closed at 52 week high for 8.3% blended profit since December 2023/Jamuary 2024. Idea was a hydrogen opportunity. Ticker price is too high to run credit spreads. The way French markets got smashed looks like credit spread on Air Liquide (AI.PA), Europen competitor, could go in-the-money and wil be buying the stock at options expiry.
Simplify Volt RoboCar Disruption and Tech ETF (VCAR): Electric Vehicles. Closed at 52 week high for 4.7% blended profit since November 2021/February 2023/January 2024. Averaging down from the very high price first tranche delivered the profits. Initial entry was based on performance relative to other electric vehicle ETFS (see TIB571). 2nd tranche was to replace Tesla (TSLA) on assignment as the ETF was 9.39% in Tesla (see TIB642)
Mostly my portfolios have been under invested in technology stocks in recent years - the price of writing covered calls and being called away. This ETF's top 10 holdings only has one electric vehicle stock in it - all the rest are to do with disruptive technologies or services. Hence it is outperforming the other electric vehicles ETFs
ASX Portfolio
No trades
Hedging Trades
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK): US Technology. With price opening at $215.60 and trading higher (Jun 11) put in place a July expiry 215/210 ratio put spread. This provides protection for a drop between 2.4 and 4.8% from the $220.17 close (Jun 11). Would not be unhappy buying the stock 4.8% lower than the close.
[Means: Ratio Spread. Sell more options than one buys with sold premium funding bought premium. ]
Income Trades
Naked Puts
Kicked a few naked puts down the road to manage exercise risk all at same strike
- FMC Corporation (FMC): Food Products. 241% loss on buyback. 19.8% cash positive
- Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU): Uranium Enrichment. 264% loss on buyback. 31.7% cash positive
- Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC): Hotels. 97% loss on buyback. 5.8% cash positive
Credit Spreads
No change - looks like Air Liquide (AI.PA) will trade below sold put and may even go through the bottom. Strike prices have been reduced to account for dividend.
ResourcesCautions: This is not financial advice. You need to consider your own financial position and take your own advice before you follow any of my ideas
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June 10-14, 2024
#hive #posh
First of all thanks for such detailed graphs and analysis brother. It's interesting to to me seeing how your portfolio's performance is influenced by the fluctuations in commodity prices. I'm now seeing the divergence between US and European markets being a factor too. It must be challenging balancing those investments. Wishing you the best of luck in the process big bro !WINE
Ooh wow
Thank you for sharing this statistic with us
I hope to see a pump though
That’s what I’m after😁😁