A local bottom for SIM/HIVE ratio? Or will HIVE rally further in the short-term adding more sell pressure?

in LeoFinance3 years ago

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Time for a quick update on the status of my City! I recently opened up a contest for a giveaway of a bunch of Dcity cards. So far, @mineopoly has been the only entry. Shout out to him for participating. I may extend the deadline until 48 hours after 3rd edition releases to give a chance for more entries.

If you're a new player (less than two weeks) or you've never played before, consider entering as you could win some pretty epic cards. Shout outs are also due to @brandt, who contributed a Clouds Animation card to the prize pool, and @summertooth, who volunteered to potentially donate some undetermined cards as well.

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Anyway, let's take a quick glance at the SIM market on Leo Dex:


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As you can see, SIM has been declining in strength against HIVE for a while now. Unfortunately, both Hive Engine and LeoDex's chart interfaces are quite bad, so I'm not able to zoom out to show longer-term trends which could prove more enlightening, nor can I add any indicators to the chart.

In my view, the primary cause of the declining SIM/HIVE value is the recent rally occurring in the HIVE/BTC value as can be seen below. People were scrambling to dump various Hive Engine tokens for Swap.HIVE in order to get liquid HIVE a couple days ago when HIVE rallied as high as 1400 satoshis on Bittrex, briefly touching near 80 cents USD in value some places.


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Since then, there has been some consolidation of HIVE both in terms of BTC as well as USD. The SIM/HIVE ratio has not yet caught up to this development. Let's see if we have bottomed out in the short term. In any case, I am continuing to accumulate SIM at these low valuations.

In fact, at least for the moment, I became the top holder of SIM today with my recent purchases, just barely edging out the @dcitygame account with 8.7 million SIM. The top player holders of SIM below me are @luts with nearly 8 million SIM and @steemshiro with 4.6 million SIM.

Some others are stacking significant amounts as well as shown below — including @dustindivitto with 3 million SIM, @imperij4427 with 2.7 million SIM, @reseller with 2.4 million SIM, @mys with 2.2 million SIM, @desyfit with 2.1 million SIM, and @themarkymark with 2.1 million SIM. Will the bulls/HODLers or bears/dumpers prevail? Only time will tell!


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Due to the valuation of SIM being 70% below its "soft-pegged" value of 0.005, automatic income tax remains quite hefty. Currently, at these income tax levels I'm bringing in 68,000 SIM daily raw income plus 12,500 from War Tax being on for a total of around 80,500 SIM. (This doesn't include my other smaller alt accounts used for mining technology cards).


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Ranking-wise, I remain the top non-zero SIM income city in 7th place in terms of raw population, which currently pays around 54 HIVE per day. Ranks 1 through 6 are currently subject to a 70% tax on their HIVE rewards earnings as set by current President @dreamm, which is a good step in the right direction, as I have never liked the negative-SIM-income city strategy being allowed within the game. (Note: @sketching is my own alt account currently serving as my repository for excess population cards.)


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I'm a bit disappointed that none of the announced 3rd edition combined card recipes include mechanisms to "burn/lock" basic homes, luxury homes, or apartments, as we still deal with crazy amounts of population/popularity spam... however, 3rd edition in general has practically no cards providing population, which is a good start to increasing the value of these 1st edition population-providing cards. In addition, some citizen cards will be able to be "loaded" into other buildings for increased income, which should serve as another population-sink.

Of course, 2nd edition continues to print — so Farms and Parks are also available as methods to increase population, and they are extremely numerous. Thus, I am not sure it is enough to increase demand for the old, ubiquitous population cards from first edition. Knowing @gerber, however, he is already thinking 10 steps ahead and likely has a plan for this which as yet remains veiled.


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words and images by @d-pend
created for HIVE on March 26, 2021.
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images are screenshots and Deep-Dream-processed
versions of the official Dcity logo/backgrounds.


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great post :)

Interesting thoughts. I started on dcity a few months ago. I put a part of my powered-down steem into it, but so far not much else. I'm not really working the stats to maximize my profit (tho that would be the smart thing to do, so maybe I should) I'm just having fun buying cards to balance my map with the sim payout from the day before. Looking forward to seeing what 3rd edition brings.

Nice writeup! Hopefully you get some more entrants, seems like a great contest.

The Hive rally definitely contributed to SIM's declining strength… but I think once 3rd edition drops we will see some new energy. I also suspect the new UI and mobile app that gerber has mentioned will have a positive impact.

Very interesting crypto market these days. I would have never guessed 1000 satoshi for Hive. The times look to me like the roaring 20s.

You are Folklure... Nice trip

Nah, it's @rusty-jernigan, but it may become more of a collab in the future ;-)

Right. He makes a ton of tracks. I should have known. Thanks for sharing. And Hive is up again.

Yup. Hundreds of hours of mostly unreleased material. We're looking to be roommates for a while so we can collab easier and get a bunch of stuff released. Proving difficult to find a house that fits the parameters we're looking for so far, but I'm sure something will emerge.

My lease is up in June so stay tuned... should be a good bit of stuff coming midway-to-late this year.

And Hive is up again.

Yeah, it keeps exceeding my expectations in terms of timeline. I thought it would surge a lot but surprised it is happening this early in the year. It may mean the fireworks will be even brighter than many of us thought.

Luckily, it seems to be a question of good or even gooder.

Peace!

I think living with a roommate will be great for creative energy. The details will take care of themselves. I think you are right. There will be a fireworks display if not in hive then at least in your combined creative minds.

Looking forward to the collaboration.

As for me my phone contract is up in May. You get a new roommate. I get a new phone.

The price is temporary and will rebound once 3rd edition is started and as for price of population from 1st edition that should go mental

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I tend to agree, everything is about timing. What I have noticed is SIM dumps when HIVE pumps, but even if the price of HIVE remains high, SIM eventually catches up.

It will be interesting if HIVE goes much higher this cycle, say $5 — will SIM be able to maintain strength?

as for price of population from 1st edition that should go mental

We shall see, as I mentioned I think 3rd edition changes is a step in the right direction. Overall I think Farms are superior to Basic/Luxury/Apartments, so would like to see some additional reason why they are desirable to hold.

Thanks for the comment!

@tipu curate :)