Whenever this discussion arises — what's BTC going to rise to? — I find myself backing up and pondering the fact that we start talking about an asset rising 10-fold (or more) in value.
But to what extent is that a realistic consideration for an asset that — at the same time — gets tossed into the hedge and store of value category, like precious metals. There isn't much talk about "gold is going to go to $500,000 by the end of 2021!"
Forgetting finances, lambo dreams and insane runups on various tokens in the past... can we really reconcile "store of value" with wild price fluctuations? Or are we looking for BTC to do something that's contextually dubious?
The reason gold is not talked about as potentially rising to insane numbers is because the s2f ratio of gold is pretty much constant. It has no mining reward halving. The halving is the engine that powers this entire space.
Bingo. The halving is the catalyst. Simple supply and demand.