I'm not gonna lie, I've been waiting for this for a few good days now. I know it's easy to say this in hindsight, but I really did. I even have a tweet in my defence, one that was even liked by @grantcardone.
You can't see it was liked in the screenshot above, but you have the link, so I dare you. I double dare you, just go and check for yourself.
Anyway, where were we?
Oh, at the correction.
You see, we carry around this idea about ourselves called "ego", which is basically our biggest source of trouble. It's the ego that makes us believe we are relevant, intelligent, or just right in an argument. It's also the ego that creates expectations, and it's also the ego that skews our perspective so it follows these expectations. In such a way that, when we witness a certain trend for a while, we tend to get used to it. Like when we see a certain asset appreciating in a certain market - let's just randomly pick Bitcoin, for instance - and we expect this trend to continue indefinitely, because... well, because it goes up, so it must continue to go up.
There are certain times in the markets when we really have no other reason to believe that an asset will go up, other than our expectation. And the insane bull run that just ended this morning was one of these times. Reality has a certain rhythm, there is this play between full and empty, between elasticity and plasticity, and everything that goes up, must come down, eventually.
I find this process fundamental and, when it's late, when the pressure upwards or downwards builds up above (or below) a certain point, I get anxious. The last couple of weeks I was a bit anxious. There was a certain saturation in the markets that just didn't have any way out, it was keep bubbling, without any support whatsoever. Eventually, the bubble bursted, and pouf... there goes my anxiety with it. I confess I feel much better now, that the markets are showing a few signs of rationality.
Of course, markets can stay irrational more than you can stay solvable, that's why I don't trade these spikes, but even this irrationality must level up somehow. Even the most irrational person must go to sleep.
I guess that I just wanted to tell you that I find this correction - which isn't over yet, IMHO - very healthy. Trading bubbles is very risky, but I admit it can be also hugely profitable if you happen to be on the right side of the trade.
I'm not riding that wave, but I do understand that we're in an undeniable bull run. If history repeats itself, we still have 250 days from it. Historically, Bitcoin bull runs, which are happening every three years, are lasting 2-300 days, and I reckon the first 50 are behind us now.
It was a great first run, but I think markets need to breathe for a while. You know, just to prepare for the next jump.
I'm a geek, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Hive you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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Agree with you, the bull run can continue till October-November to have a 300-day cycle. On stock market, October is the month for bargains.
We had a discussion, two days ago with @acesontop, where we also said that Oct-Nov can be the end of the bull run for this cycle.
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That's supposed to happen if it respects the previous bull cycle. Nothing's nailed though. I am looking towards starting taking profits that time around.
Yeah, we can only judge based on previous events, but the truth is nobody knows where the market goes.
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Indeed.
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any chance of bitcoin going down into the $20.000 range this year ?
Of course, anything is possible. I just don't see it happening now.
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When do you consider the beginning of this bull run?
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End of Dec last year, beginning of Jan this year, more exactly when Bitcoin broke above $25k.
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All I know is that i'm not selling. I might move a few bits around but will hold my portfolio and in the meantime keep stacking hive as hard as possible.
Other than that I love to see the markets rise but it doesn't bother me if they don't for awhile yet.
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