There is no floor under HIVE

in LeoFinance5 months ago (edited)

HIVE is on sale! In fact, it has NEVER been cheaper to buy than it is RIGHT NOW! It just touched a low seen only briefly once at the start of the currency in April - about ten cents. And priced in BTC, it continues to fall to new all-time lows, with no end in sight:

The red line is a simplification of the long term logarithmic HIVE price, going back to the start in March. Other than the brief blip caused by a large exchange's contest, the price has done nothing but fall.

It is now - once again, and still - the best time in history to buy HIVE. Anyone who bought (or earned) HIVE before today would have been better off waiting.

Reminder

When people discuss the price, and the above fact comes up (ie: that it has never been cheaper than it is right now), many people respond with "this is a great time to buy because at some point, the price will recover, and those who bought or held will be VERY happy!"

This is a common sentiment, but it isn't backed up by facts. It's an emotional statement, created from thin air, and repeated often until it seems to have validity. But it doesn't.

There's NO guarantee that the price of HIVE (or STEEM) will ever significantly recover. It doesn't have to. That was an assumption that eventually became legend, but it's simply not real.

HIVE (STEEM before the fork) has lost 90% per year, every year, since I went all-in at the start of 2018. People say "it can't go to zero!" and even if that were true, that doesn't mean it can't lose 90%, every year, forever.

Forever.

Because, remember, this currency isn't measured in dollars and divided into 100 copper pennies.

It's measured in digital units that are divided into millions of subunits. The decimal place can always be moved, and another zero can always be added.

"This community is full of great people! Many apps have been developed!"

Wonderful, but that doesn't mean the currency will appreciate in value. The community has been full of great people, and many apps have been developed, since the very beginning. That isn't all it takes.

HIVE can (and likely soon will) fall below this 0.1 USD mark. In time it may fall below the 0.01 USD mark, and so on.

The adage "it has to turn around and go up at SOME point!" is not true. It may turn around, but NOTHING says it has to.

There is no floor.

DRutter

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Price can always go down more.

Hmmm , i may just buy some Hive with my Dogecoin. BTW Dogecoin has been an amazingly stable coin.
I love those old Canadian pennies, that are worth 0.0215 USD! each in copper value according to coinflation.com and I saved more than ten pounds of these pennies over the years before they became de-monitized. These may even see circulation once again.

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Great comment. I am a huge penny fan, and copper coinage in general. Maybe it's the common man's money, but it's money, and I never said I wasn't at least somewhat common :)

100 year old Canadian penny, 5 per ounce of copper:

A dollar was a heavy bag of metal then:

Obverse after dipping in salty vinegar:

Every little scratch could tell a story.

The 'sunk cost fallacy' always takes peoples wealth.

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HIVE isn't working well for me tonight. Logged in but couldn't see details on posts from the main screen on hive.blog, and no new posts were showing up. Refreshed but the problem continues. Issues with voting too.

Same here on my account. :((

But I found this post! Upvoted, and rehived.

Meanwhile over at Blurt ....

ohhh, the fud

The truth causes fear, uncertainty, and doubt in some people. Best to see things as they really are than to persist in comfortable delusion, though!

Damn with all that confidence why do you even bother to post here? Certainly you can make more blogging on Facebook.. or Twitter..

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What do you mean? Are you saying that people with confidence shouldn't use the blockchain?
I've been deplatformed on FB/etc for standing up for free speech, like a lot of liberty activists have. But I wasn't aware it had anything to do with confidence?

I was being sarcastic.. there is no money in Facebook or Twitter blogging..

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Face FuckBook.... I mean....

The floor is priced in USD, not Bitcoin. The floor is 10 cents, and this floor has held multiple times. Pretty confident about the 10 cent floor... outperforming Bitcoin is another story.

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That would be a support level - a related concept but not the same as the floor.

Ah okay. Then I guess I would ask which assets have floors and what are they?

Assets with intrinsic value, or backed by something with physical value like gold bullion, have some sort of floor, put there by the cost of production. Even a copper penny's value has a floor, partly due to the value of copper (although this vector changes through time), and partly due to the cost of pressing a weighted amount of alloyed metal out into a medallion and stamping it with identifying marks (adding premium).

Also a corporation may have a policy of doing a stock split or reversal (or other market move) at a particular price point, giving it a floor (or ceiling).

Central banks and governments can have policies with bonds and other assets where they will buy, sell, devalue, or change rates when it reaches a particular price, giving it a floor (if you trust the promises of that bank/govt).

You're right.. not a lot of assets have a floor, at least off the top of my head. One thing that doesn't have a floor (that I know of) is HIVE.

But I think you're totally right about the ten cent level being support - I just have no idea how strong it is, given the downward momentum we've seen for months/years.

I will believe it when I see it! If we make it to 2021 without going below .1USD I'll buy you a burger. I'll be happy to see that happen so it'll be worth it ;P