Last night Bitcoin had quite the tumble, then again a few hours ago. Coinbase has "degraded service" so not quite sure what's up with the potential volume. Volume on Binance is a staggering 113k BTC/24h, so lots of people are popping on to "buy the dip".
This flash-crash is honestly pretty great.
It's a great way to test supply shock and see how strong this market is at the lower levels.
This dump pierced through support at $50k, $47k, and $44k before I even saw it coming. For the most part, it seems like $44k was confirmed as a rock bottom, even for a flash crash.
The real test is how long it takes to get out of this potential fear induced dump.
We find ourselves in a perfectly predictable situation right now. Yesterday was the new moon, and we would normally expect 2 more weeks of sideways/retrace action from this point. Also the volume was so low this very much baited a crash. All the signals were there for this one to occur. There are no surprises here, except for the speed and timing of it.
Hive handled the dump flawlessly, even after being bubbled up at the 83 cent level. At this point Hive feels like it's in mega-bullish mode and I will treat it as such. My next selling target is right under $2. Until then, no more selling for me. I've rebooted my 1000 hive powerdown per week so I can unlock a little more and provide liquidity once we're in all time Hive territory.
Again, Hive is so oversold it's not even funny. Not even in the top 200 by market cap? Silly. In 2018 I would have sworn to you that the fair market price of Steem was 80 cents. Look how far we've come since then. We don't even have the same brand name or centralization issues. I see dozens of builders throwing down here, and in the long term, we have a superior business model.
Yield farming bandwidth
When you allow other projects to transact for "free" this is a big deal. Any platform that charges a fee to put data on the blockchain can never participate in the micro-charge economy. Micro-charges and income-streams are the future. Hive is in a good spot as we head into overload. It costs $100 to use Uniswap one time. I wish you well on your scaling adventure, Ethereum Foundation.
Hive, why are you so sexy right now?
Seriously though to not crash after getting so inflated? Hive might just stay bullish until the end of the year or until it goes x10 back to Steem's all time highs. That being said I've always given warnings for September.
September has never been a fun month for Bitcoin. Judging by what just happened on the first day after the New Moon, we'll be lucky to trade in the $45k-$50k range for the next two weeks. This would still be bullish for the alt-market, as described in my post yesterday. Consolidating at such a high level (x2.5 higher than 2017 highs) can only be good for the alts.
These next two weeks are likely going to be the ultimate bear trap. No idea how low it will go, but supply shock at $46k seems to be holding quite well for the time being. I'd be pretty surprised to start trading in the $40k-$45k range considering how overwhelmingly bullish the supply shocks have been.
Conclusion
As I said before: the sharks are taking Q3 gains. That was the perfect time to do it. Well played, sharks. First day after the new moon combined with El Salvador making Bitcoin a legal currency. So well played. Somebody just made bank.
Hive is outperforming like crazy. All the on-chain technicals point to constant supply shock, perhaps even all the way to the end of the year (unless we 10x before that).
CUB and LEO are also bottoming out. CUB at the 50 cent level and LEO around 25 cents. It's nice to see that CUB bulls are no longer speculating on future IDOs, and the next couple that come down the pipe should shake up volatility when they arrive.
At the end of the day we just need to get through September. It's the worst month out of the year consistently over the last decade. After that it blue skies till the end of the year. October might be a little slow but Novembers and Decembers are legendary.
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We will get out of the current dip and I believe more quickly than ever, Today's stability is a good sign.
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Read how this all have started with Toruk
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He's back :)
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This kind of action reminds me of very early 2017 when things were just getting started. It was impossible to get a position and be comfortable with flash crashes just to wipe you out constantly both financially and phycologically. Imagine if we were in a similar kind of scenario now. The reward for going through the last 2 or 3 months must/should/could be enormous.
HIVE has just proved to be a contrarian. I was amazed to see its price right after BTC fell from the El Salvadorian skies. Waiting patiently for the blue skies and it honestly feels so much like 2017. This time though we had a flash crash based on a positive event, instead of a ban like it happened in 2017.
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My 1% Hive vote is 10 cents at full power.
Sitting pretty over here.
I wonder what prompted the dump though, thought the El Salvador announcement would have the opposite effect. That said, the 46k rebound has me thinking we can rebound even stronger through the month.
Hive's stability is something that has me thinking about 2022 being super bullish for the platform
Hint: IMF/World Bank
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This looks so suspiciously done to create problems to Salvador. Really.
Interesting day for a flash crash I think people are trying to scare out investors and add some FUD around the El Salvador news. Well played by whales.
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IMO, I'm considering that for the majority of El Salvadorians this kind of wild fluctuation in crypto (which is something entirely new for them) may shake their comfort level with BTC as a national currency. Had the price point gone up today the news would be more bullish and they would have more confidence in BTC. Right now I'll bet there are folks in El Salvador who are worried. Which is exactly what a flash crash like this on a monumental day was meant to do. Let's hope the end of year predictions hold true. Only time will tell.
Hive has been unbelievably strong during this. As per usual, it doesn't seem to have any relationship whatsoever with the broader crypto markets, and in many cases, this one included, runs counter to them. I am very bullish on Bitcoin right now, and when I think about it, I'm even more bullish on Hive. Other than this little flash crash, there's nothing but good news about people building and creating. I am not deterred.
on this decline I bought ICP, FIL and THETA
HIVE is just amazing.
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Found this just after my last comment. Can't keep up with your writing...
This is exactly my sentiment!
Makes me feel like it's actually a good thing that I'm selling my house next month ;<) Although, in all honesty, I already put it on the market last November. If I would have sold it at the start of this year...
Crypto is all if... then anyway but it's nice to keep dreaming.
It's a fun rollercoaster ride, as per usual.
Thanks, as always, for your perspective and I am indeed very happy how Hive is handling this stress test :<)
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I was looking at things after the fact but it looks like a lot of crypto flash crashed at the same time as BTC too. It sure is bullish to see BTC recover so fast after the dip.
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Bitcoin going dip now will make more people jump Into getting but the surprising part is that bitcoin was decreasing and hive didn't decrease that alone made me amazed
I had the same feeling about the crash, it feels like a good thing. With a correction like this it’s easier to imagine long term holders scooping up even more which could really heat up the supply shock. I think the only way we break ATH now is if btc dried up so much that there are no orders for large quantities of bitcoin anywhere.
Hive though, Hive is sweet AF anywhere outside of the top 50.
As we both now. No matter how good fundamentals are, if BTC market should switch to panic sells, we will see also cheaper hive too.
For me, i dont care. I hodl. But yeah, we dont know :)
IMO big pumpy ( no financial advice) will take some more time if the cool tech starts to run into place like 3speak, Blocktrades sidechain, new splinterlands expansion, leo mobile app, and so on.
To that point, we could see everything in a short-term :)
Only what i expect. Could be wrong, so i get rekt :D sold some alts :P
Indeed executives seem to grab profits from the market in order to reach their targets and capitalize on their positions in institutions and companies. That was one risk I was thinking about and seems to be confirmed along with the other "fake" bad news about China regulation and El Salvador issues. Recovering from here would be great and strengthen new high lows.
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I took the opportunity to go shopping
Hive is really looking good! I wonder where we will be by years end
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This is really good view of the last 24hours
This wasn't a fear-induced dump but a liquidation of a billion dollars worth of leveraged longs.
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These two things aren't mutually exclusive.
This was the perfect time to take gains and snowball the price downwards.
Pretty much every flash crash is when longs get liquidated.
That's the only way to melt the liquidity away so quickly.
This is what I've been hearing all over here
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*Laughts in long term DCA*
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Looks like Hive wants to be the better hedge through the likely bearish month
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Check out the last post from @hivebuzz:
It's a shocker, but definitely not the worst crash i've seen.