Parsing the Ragnarok Update

in LeoFinance4 months ago

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Ragnarok Update

The DEGENS have been fed!
Ah, delicious.

We wanted to quickly announce that the claim drop website will be up soon for Ragnarok.

We have seen the communities eagerness to get their claim drop.

hahaha...

The energy and implications of this statement are pretty funny.
Can you read between the lines?

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I can only imagine how many people have been on the 'wen' train.

People have a tendency to get impatient with airdrops.
Especially when the snapshot has already happened.
Moving on...

to speed up the process, we are going to drop fungible Ragnarok Claim Tokens (RCT)

OHRLY!

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Wow, this is fantastic news...

Did you know we were gonna get such great news today?
I was not aware!

The NFT you get with your RCTs will be random, there is no way to know what you will get before you claim...

So this is a really great development.

It's going to let degens like me buy more NFTs before I even know what I've gotten myself into. At the same time, it will allow anyone who wanted to dump their airdrop do that as well.

Again, this creates a really great transition.

Can you imagine a Hive whale being dropped thousands of NFTs and they have list every single one individually in order to get rid of them? That would be an absolute nightmare! These fungible tokens that represent future NFTs is a great way to make the transition. Everyone is happy.

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Win/win.

Anyone who wants to dump can dump.
Anyone who wants to blind bid on random NFTs gets to do that as well.
Everyone gets what they want.
No one has to waste time pricing individual NFTs.

Very smort.

We are pushing to get RCTs live asap so you can start early on your Ragnarok adventure!

Soon™ baby!

JK, this sounds like sooner™.
Maybe even soonest™!

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Game - 70% complete until the first test net.

Cool beans.

This test net is not the year-long one, and there will need to be a community vote on when to launch the year-long test net, then another vote for the game to go live.

Interesting...

I'm gonna go ahead and start calling the first testnet the "Alpha" testnet and the year long one the "Beta" testnet. Seems fair.

There will be 3.3 Million NFTs total in the claim drop representing 100% of the total supply.

Okay so this is actually very interesting, because the initial range given was....

We are comfortable saying it will be between 3.3 million to 33 million total NFTs, excluding spells that are in-game mineable only.

So the minimum number was chosen, which makes sense for a lot of reasons. First of all, even 3.3 million cards is quite a bit. Considering it takes 10 cards to make a deck, that means it will be possible to make like 330k decks using all the cards, even at this lower number. Divide this number by ten again to get the max number of total players possible... which is like 30k if we assume that on average each player has around 100 cards. Considering the game's mechanics, this is still a little bit too high. There are only going to be a couple thousand serious competitive players maximum, so the decision to only mint 3.3M NFTs is the smart play.

While it may seem a bit deflating to be receiving less NFTs, those NFTs will theoretically have more value, so it's not really a big deal. In fact, by choosing the correct number of NFTs they'll be worth more in the long run because the game mechanics synergize together to create maximum value.

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So how many NFTs will we get?

The rough estimate will be between 17-170'ish Hive per NFT on the safe side.

I'm honestly not sure now how we arrived at these numbers. I guess there's little point in speculating now since we're about to get airdropped the fungible tokens any day now. However, if we assume a total Hive pool of 371M Hive, and 3.3M NFTs, that's 112.4 Hive per NFT. However, there are 66.2M Hive in the @hive.fund that aren't going to be eligible, reducing the 371M to 304.8M Hive / 3.3M NFT = 92 Hive/NFT.

Given this estimate, I would assume to get over 2000 NFTs, because my bud @mr-jakk gonna let me manage his airdrops. Wow, that's a lot of NFTs! Gonna hodl them all, fam. Happy day!

I'm also very curious to see how many people will dump their NFT tokens on the market. Hopefully I can scoop more up on the cheap. I have to assume that the NFTs will be far more valuable when they actually have utility, rather than just being in their "we promise future value" fungible tokenized form. Should be interesting either way.

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Conclusion

Exciting announcement. This transitional airdrop of fungible tokens is arguably the best way to do it in order to give everyone the opportunity to dump/pump the market before the actual launch of the game. This is the kind of free market that helps everyone discover some kind of floor pricing on these things in advance.

With 119M Hive on exchanges, I would be FLOORED if much more than 1M NFTs even got claimed (1.5M max). Using my own definition of a whale, we only need to own 1/1000th the circulating supply to be considered one. If only 1M NFTs get claimed, this implies that one only needs 1000 NFTs to become a Ragnarok whale during these early stages (3300 maximum cap). Interesting perspective to think about. Send it.

#YOLO

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If you were to make a guess, what do you think would be the trading value of one token 24h after the market opens?

My guess would be in the $10 range

This might be the airdrop that I might really hold on to for a while. I don't know if I'm gonna play the game but I'm not falling for selling cheap anymore. Who knows, maybe these couple of NFTs I'll get will be worth some decent money/HIVE in a year from now.

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I am with you on that. This seems like it is well thought out and will only grow over time. That means anyone who is getting the NFTs could end up with a nice asset that appreciates while also being able to rent them out. I believe there will be a rental market for them.

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Renting sounds good too.

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That might be a way to make some steady income, especially if not a player oneself.

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Thanks for the update. Do we exchange the tokens for the NFTs later or will it be dropped to the accounts afterwards based on the amount you hold?

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I would presume they will be redeemable similar to the voucher system with Splinterlands.

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I was thinking the same thing... These pre-nft tokens are going to be great for the people who want to dump and the people who want to load up. Exciting times.

The question is whether we see a lot of dumping going on early on or does the price moon, before pulling back.

Hard to tell but interesting nonetheless.

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Ya, it is definitely a roll of the dice whether to buy, sell or hold.

I am retorning all my token from everywhere to this airdrop, hope do not the same mistake that happens with Cub un the begining of airdrop, i hope yo get a pars of teams to try to play a Little.

how would the RCTS be sold? Would that happen via Hive-Engine?

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That is what I assume but I didn't want to guess.
That being said I don't actually think there is another option.

ok good, just wanted to be ready in case there's somewhere else to buy the weak hands :) . I'm ready buy blind, don't really think I can go wrong this early.

Are you aware if they've done any recruiting for players. Doug Polk comes to mind as someone who would be really great at this game and could really give it some great exposure. There's also some great chess channels on Youtube that could be recruited. What about the Botez Sisters who livestream their Chess playing and are also quite popular?

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Thanks for the info and update!

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Nice way to break it down, after seeing the Ragnarok update, I had to wait for your update to break it down in simpler terms. Well I won’t be selling mine, I think I might just buy more. Who knows?

Can you buy a few for me also?

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Sure, just let me know when it’s your birthday and that will be your birthday gift from me to you.

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@taskmaster4450le doesn't collect birthday gifts.

But, I do LOL

Once I hit 50, birthdays were cancelled.

So was Christmas, Easter, and Arbor Day.

And I wonder why I have no friends.

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You are all heart.

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With your calculs that would mean I could have around 20-25 cards. That would be great but as you said the range was really huge ! !PIZZA

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NFT NFT NFT, how many do you own? On ETH maybe one. On hive tenth of thousands :P

I thought I'd have more time, lol. But likely I'll be on the buying side if there will be dumpers, and there will be... By the way, do you know where will the claim tokens reside (on which side-chain)?

I thought I'd have more time

Say most people on their deathbed.

Just goes to show, make use of everything moment, both on and off Hive.

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Say most people on their deathbed.

Ha ha, yeah, so true.

I wonder if there will be a point in time where you have to claim your NFTs with your RCTs or if you can keep the RCTs like unopened Splinterlands packs. Since there is a NFT cap, someone could in theory determine the possibility of getting one of the remaining unclaimed NFTs available. As the supply of RCTs decrease, it will be interesting to see how the price of RCTs change over time. Hmmm

If that is the case, unopened ones could have enormous value. There is great value in the aura of mystery.

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It is going to be interesting how this game unfolds. We are seeing a truly innovative experiment taking place. To build a game that wants LESS users is a novel idea. Get those involved who are serious and turn it into a competitive game similar to a sport. The non-players are spectators.

I will be curious to see if there is some way to get involved with the top (or upcoming players). Imagine they are tokenized where people can buy into their success.

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Great write up and I agree this could potentially be quite the wealth builder. Let's see how it pans out.

Its interesting how you made proper calculation to keep NFT value up without compromising on supply.
The game is well planned and researched and I am excited to play on it !!!

I have a feeling the market is gunna be spicy when the airdrop hits. Time for us degens to shine.

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