However, prices have also never broken into this channel in a bull market.
The problem with this assumption is that the sharks have never capitalized on a previous mega-cycle to liquidate all the longs given that pattern that everyone was loading up on debt during the 30%-40% retrace. The market spotted this attack vector and fleeced all the longs by dumping the market twice in a row.
I have to agree, this is all about time, but it might be a mistake to base these assumptions on 10 days of price action for a thing that's never happened before. A ten day correction is being assumed as the end-all bear market. That's pretty thin. The market has to move lower than $30k for confirmation, but the catch-22 there is that once we get to $20k we are back in a bull market again, so there isn't a lot of wiggle room to turn a profit with trades.
For me, a huge run in summer 2022 is looking much more likely, but I'm still not sure.
I think the next few weeks can tell us a lot: like how much momentum is left (if at all).
Correct me if I wrong, but even by your own calculations we are pretty much already at the bottom ($30k). All in all I'd say this analysis looks pretty good. Gonna reblog it.
true, the market and macro situation is always changing. The main idea here is that patterns repeat in a similar enough way to make somewhat sensible predictions. So far it has worked very well; but of course that is not a guarantee for the future. What jumped at me when I looked at the market from the perspective of the second chart was that it was simply much too early for the market to already top out in the next months.
30k could be the bottom, but prices have generally gone back down to the support line. Together with the previous top of 20k I think that the lows could be at around 20-23k. This would also mean that there would be a sideways movement until about fall/winter
also there is a big resistance from the trend line here:
not to mention the head and shoulders pattern