Shell Shocked: Learning to Capitulate

in LeoFinance4 months ago

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The alt market is getting absolutely wrecked.

Presumably from the SEC attacking Ripple and the token price subsequently crashing 50% in a matter of days. Ripple has lost 100% of the gains it made from this most recent bull run. From 25 cents to $1 back to 25 cents all in the matter of one month. What a wild ride for XRP holders.

In addition to the ridiculous regulations the SEC is trying to push on centralized exchanges (KYC self-hosted wallets; a pointlessly bloated requirement) the rest of the alt-market has been shaken to the core as they retreat back into Bitcoin. Bitcoin price is holding steady quite impressively considering the circumstances.

I was pretty mad yesterday when I wrote about needing to exit my MakerDAO margin trade and sell the ETH under my control into Bitcoin. ETH was trading at $630.

I'll just wait for the market to recover and then I'll sell.

This is the trap that many many many notice traders fall into. Especially with the whole HODL FOR DEAR LIFE mentality, it's easy to just stare at the screen and bleed out when you should have just capitulated and mitigated some losses.

So today I closed out my margin trade at $610, wondering if I made a bad decision, and ETH crashes to $550 10 minutes later... lol. Crisis averted.

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Bitcoin strong

The days of the maximalist are here. This is a maximalist's bull run dream. The vast majority of money flowing into the market is coming from institutions directly into Bitcoin. The only way to pick a network that outperforms Bitcoin at this point is simply to get extremely lucky. Pure speculation.

The other day I sold 20k Hive into Bitcoin at 550 sats thinking that must be a terrible play as well. After all, I was more than willing to buy at 1000 sats and 1500 sats. Surely, selling at 550 is a bad play, yet now at the time of writing Hive trades at 464 sats, go figure. I'm resisting the urge to rebuy back in so quickly. Again, Bitcoin strong.

This cowardly pullback into Bitcoin is likely going to fuel another run up by the top coin by market cap. We have a solid base at $20k and the chance that we never dip lower than that ever again is high. We're only 8 months away from the doubling curve surpassing $20k, so I expect that to be the level we inevitably crash to after this current spike up is done.

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Sad turtles

So yeah I've very much exited from ETH at the moment, which is a nice feeling. ETH is my gambling coin, so I am no longer gambling. The ETH market is bubbled from ETH 2.0 hype and ETH 2.0 doesn't do anything yet. Speculation fueled by zero fundamentals is not great in the short term. The chance that Bitcoin outperforms ETH in either direction is quite high at the moment, when normally ETH has twice the volatility in both directions, at the moment this is not the case. The downside is double but the upside is not.

Late Feb

My target to buy back into the market is late Feb. At this point I think Bitcoin is going to peak sometime in January unless we get two big pumps before that... which seems unlikely. Truth be told I think the market might be waiting for Trump to GTFO of office before the big boys start solidifying their positions. January 20th might be a big day.

It feels like Trump is doing all the Dems dirty work for them. He's appointing authoritarians to high positions of power, issuing pardons all around, and cracking down on regulations that seem like they benefit the Dem strategy. It will be interesting to see what the Dems do when they actually come into power. If they don't reverse what he's done we'll know he was doing them a favor and playing the bad guy for them.

Say goodnight to the bad guy.

Now that I'm out of ETH for a while that makes me a Bitcoin/Hive kid. Should be interesting balancing these two positions. More on that later. I might get back into ETH for buy the rumor sell the news situations as they pertain to ETH 2.0... we'll see. Maybe not.

Looks like Hive might get pretty crushed after Bitcoin runs out of steam. We have solid support at 10 cents so I'm hoping to buy at around the 7-9 cent level in late Feb. I'll be pretty excited if I get to buy at these levels because I think they will mark an absolute bottom for the next year or two as the mega-bull-run starts ramping up.

The new 3speak token being airdropped on Hive users in 3-6 months has a good chance of pumping the token price so that makes late Feb an even a more opportune time to buy Hive. Get in during the worst month of the crypto year just in time for an airdrop a few months later. Until then it's all about Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Things are looking pretty bleak today for the alt market. Bitcoin dominance is spiking out of control and there's no reason to think it won't continue climbing in the short term... although it obviously can't get much higher than it is now at 69%; every percent is a massive gain at these levels.

It's about this moment that everyone probably just wishes Ripple took the settlement like all the rest of the unregistered securities that got attacked by the SEC. EOS paid the fine and they didn't even sell coins in the ICO to American IP addresses. If Ripple wins the lawsuit that's a huge win for the entire cryptosphere, as it creates a legal shield around all the other projects that are more decentralized (all of them?) If they lose (likely) then we'll probably see another round of panic selling into Bitcoin. I wonder how long it will take for this all to play out. The legal system is slow, to be sure.

Long term:

Hive is in a pretty good position considering all these circumstances. If the SEC starts attacking centralized authorities who govern their associated blockchains, this puts Hive in the Limelight as a network that already booted their overlords to the curb.

No argument can be made that Hive is controlled by anyone, because we already have a unreplicable history of not being controlled. We also didn't pay for exchange listings, which is being brought up as an issue to "prove" that XRP is a security. The biggest clump of ninjamined stake is sitting in an account with no keys that can only be allocated with network consensus. All good things. Our grizzled history is going to become a huge advantage in the future. All we can do in the short term is hang on to the anchor that is Bitcoin and hope for the best.

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aye, a good summary for a terrible day ahahaha.
It really is amazing to see just how undervalued projects like Hive can be, how skewed it all is. Question is can we afford to hang on long enough for use-case merit to set in one day?

I still have a feeling Hive's rise will be quick and dirty, everyone will see it as "duh!" and we all wish we would have not bailed on our positions. But then, how audacious do we want to play it? It'S crazy to see that most of us have not been audacious enough with buying hive low.

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You might be right about bitcoin... it looks to be the main move for the next few months but I would not discount ETH, the SEC has cleared it as well so there should be no worries there. It might have dropped but is trading over 610 again one day later (would have been a good long)

Looks like Hive might get pretty crushed after Bitcoin runs out of steam.

why?

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Lot's of whales are powering down and if Bitcoin is losing value the buying pressure for Hive will also likely falter. However, 10 cent Hive has massive support so there is a good chance we don't break below that level...

I'm betting the demotards never get into power, its all a script to bring in martial law.

Chump is a puppet but he did win the election by the biggest margin in history, and shit is about to get heavy

In a lot of respects I agree, but I think it is actually much easier to institute martial law with the Kamala administration. The left has already shown they are on board with all the draconian measures being taken in the name of "public safety". They are both puppets, and undermining this "democracy" would only serve to lessen their power... so martial law under Trump makes no sense.

The right is already resisting the draconian measures... if Trump takes over both sides will band together in resistance... that will not be allowed.

Either way they get martial law, but I think this was set up long ago and the really blatant voter fraud (as opposed to the usual more discrete voter fraud) was designed to create civil unrest by the people actually capable of doing something, rather than a bunch of whining libtards, who will end up being the cannon fodder used to bring in the military.

Hell, I'm not even an American but I'm hanging out to see patriots start shooting biden supporters! Even though it's all a script, it's like watching a movie and wanting the masked avenger to take revenge.

Trump is going to be a superhero!

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I'm glad you feel goodish about Hive in the future. I hadn't heard of the 3speak token before. I don't make vids so I guess I overlooked it.

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I've got a fair amount of XRP (I've never bought it, just accumulated it via various projects) and the XRP Army has been absolutely wreaked. Lots of people are emotionally devastated. Be extremely interesting to see how all this plays out. I'm building a project at the moment that uses XRP to tip content creators, so I might just have to build in Hive way before I intended to...

Yeah hilarious how the SEC is supposed to "protect investors" but when it comes to crypto all they do is crash markets and fuck everything up.

Yeah, I'd be curious how much they've cost XRP investors at this point... and who they've saved and how much they saved those people?

I sold my xrp a long time ago when I just decided to consolidate into BTC but yeah, jeez, alts taking a hammering and hive is less than 500 sats is no joke! I thought buying some at 600 was a steal! Oh well, deals are there to be had should people want them but I'm in the same boat as you, BTC & HIVE kid 😁

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A wow!
Visions of crypto winter for sure for the Alts, but for Bitcoin the good days just keep on coming. I feel your pain about ETH and the MakerDao, but the Maker giveth and the Maker taketh away

Your fortunate to have sold both your Ether and Hive before this last dip, as did I...
But I am unsure about using that new Bitcoin to go back into either right now, but your willingness to take risks will probably make you rich!

Good Luck!

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I don't think I'll ever get used to the volatile financial market system.

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The dark side is gaining ground for now, we'll see next year if the light comes up again.

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Every time hive hits low 11 cents, I buy more. I sell my ETH and Bitcoin, and I don't care if it's a bad trade. Time will tell.

The orca position on Hive will be extremely coveted once again.
Doesn't matter if it takes a year to get there.

Yeah, I didn't expect I would be an orca before hive runs up in this bull market, yet the price action allowed me to take advantage of this.

I have more hive sitting on exchanges, don't want to be 100% powered up, felt that pain way too hard in the 1$ run up then slow painful downtrend.

Always sell a 10x :D

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More info why you see this.

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