Skimming $20k

in LeoFinance3 days ago

gold bitcoin store of value.jpg

Everyone seems to think that we are going to skip off the $20k ATH and engage in a healthy dip. It makes sense. Bitcoin has done nothing but go up up up for a month now. Surely we should get some kind of a dip once we hit that $20k mental barrier.

The problem with this theory is that everyone seems to believe it. As we've seen time and time again, the more people who predict a certain outcome for the market, the more likely it is not to happen. Seeing as everyone and their mothers is talking about how this is bound to happen, I simply have to assume it won't for a variety of reasons.

The buying pressure we've been seeing the last month isn't fickle retail money. This is hardcore corporate support in the form of reserve balances (ultimate HODL money) and corporate adoption of custodianship like Paypal. I've been predicting this winter run for over a year without any knowledge of corporate adoption or the COVID crisis combined with infinite quantitative easing. All of those things could push up my previous estimates to astounding levels.

BitcoinnewscryptocurrencynewsBitcoincrypto1938x450.jpg

No Dip November has not disappointed.

All resistance has been fully crushed, but everyone seems to think there is some massive hurdle left at all time highs. There isn't. There's nothing there but fluff. The market is in a completely different place than it was 4 years ago.

Think about it.

We are 10 days away from an all time high monthly close (by a huge margin no less). Bitcoin could crash $4000 and we'd still make the cutoff. What's going to happen when everyone realizes they were wrong about skimming off $20k and coming back to the doubling curve early?

Extreme FOMO.

What we see in November is simply a precursor to December price action. How many times does this pattern have to complete before we begin to believe it might happen again? Looks like never. The market is still in disbelief.


2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$13867$14933$16000$17067$18133$19200
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$20267$21333$22400$23467$24533$25600

In February, the doubling curve is going to be $15k. That's only a 20% dip from where we are today. If you'll recall, a full retracement is around a 30%-40% dip, leading me to believe that this run hasn't even started yet.

t1.png

This is what happened the last time we had a real bull run 18 months ago in Summer 2019. We got the signal that it started on April 1st, no jokes here. This is when we spiked higher than the doubling curve from $4000 to $5000.


2019

JanFebMarAprilMayJune
$3467$3733$4000$4267$4533$4800
JulyAugSeptOctNovDec
$5067$5333$5600$5867$6133$6400

Once we got the signal, it took a while for the market to ramp up into full gear. Between week 6 & 11 we spiked up and hovered around the $8000 mark. Then, finally, we had 3 weeks of major bubble action up to almost $14000.

t1.png

Looking at the market today, we see the signal of the start of this thing was was on October 20th. This means that the peak might not happen until three months after that.

Coincidentally, Jan 20th is inauguration day, and if a Biden administration is confirmed without incident, that could theoretically push the market up pretty hard, sparking the pump/dump we are looking for.

This power transition is going to imply a lot of things. More taxes, more quantitative easing, more stimulus checks, more socialized buffer systems, universal healthcare, The Green New Deal, yada yada yada. All of those things mean corporations will be looking to preserve their wealth, and obviously some of them will be turning to Bitcoin.

https://bitcointreasuries.org/

Everyone was flabbergasted that corporations like MicroStrategy buying huge chunks of Bitcoin didn't spike the price. All those speculators were obviously wrong. They were buying big dips and convincing foolish traders into dumping, thinking that CME futures gaps would be filled. These buys spiked the price on a delayed reaction. The dominos are now falling.

Now that those corporate bags are loaded, are we just assuming they're going to unload them at $20k even though all the history says it could go x10 higher than that over the next year? Get real. Everyone who bought between $10k-$13k is going to hold all the way through this.

There seems to be some odd consensus that a bunch of holders that have been in the red three years will for some reason come out of the woodwork to break even. Again... no.

Liquidity at $20k was thin in 2017, that's why the price was so volatile. Not that many people bought the peak, and most of the ones that did were weak hands and sold as Bitcoin crashed into the mountain. This idea that gobs of money is ready to dump at $20k is full on make believe founded on nothing. When the market reveals that this is the case all those people who are predicting this $20k FUD will be forced to FOMO back into the market or risk missing out on the mega-bubble, which isn't coming anytime soon either. Still have a year to go on that front.

Now is just about the worst time to be speculating on the market. If you wanted to buy, you obviously should have done so months ago, which was fully obvious months ago. And if you want to sell, good luck trying to scrape a tiny bit of profit from the rebuy at $15k. Buying and selling here are both risky moves, and everyone knows it.

Also, can we really compare this bull run to the summer 2019 one? If anything, the summer one should be a lot weaker than this one because it was fully based on Bakkt institutional FOMO. This one is 'backed' by actual corporate and institutional adoption. There aren't a lot of "maybes" this time around. This is happening 100%.

As the market has already revealed, this run is already markedly different than 2019. It took 6 months after the signal to even ramp up. This time around we started ramping up IMMEDIATELY and constantly for an entire month with zero dips so far. Everything about this run points to one of the biggest bubbles we've ever seen not counting the 4-year mega-bubbles.

Conclusion

Again, I'm predicting at least a $30k peak for this run. AT... LEAST... $60k is totally on the table. And what will all those people say who thought that we'd bounce off $20k when we're instead trading at $60k? "OMFG moon $200k is next this mega-bubble is coming early!!!" lol... so bad. No. No it is not coming early.

Again, for me it's more about timelines than price targets. I'm looking for high volatility/volume with a 24-48 hour blow off top. That hasn't even come close to happening. All we've seen so far is super solid buying pressure with zero dips, just as predicted. I'm also looking to rebuy into the market in late February, which means that blow-off top needs to come in January at the absolute latest so that it has time to deflate.

Of course these are all guesses and my guessing hasn't had the best track record over the last 3 years. However, the doubling curve has been miraculously accurate over the last 7 years. Seeing as we are only 50% higher than it today signals to me that we are far from being over bought (reference Summer 2019 200% higher). Not only are we fundamentally in a better place, but also winter is speculatively a bigger bubble than summer. All the info seems to point to one thing: HODL.

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corporations will be looking to preserve their wealth

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hahaha great one!

I have a feeling that once it breaks the ATH, it is going to capture the attention of the media (who have been seemingly hiding it away) and drive hard up.

Exactly they've been very quiet while corporate America scoops up as much BTC as possible. Pretty whackadoo. You'd think PayPal doing a complete 180 would spark some interest. Nah, nothing to see here.

Yep - signs of good things to come - it isn't like they don't know it is happening - but they are getting their foot in too.

That is an interesting theory to go against the general belief and sometimes that pays off big. Let's see if now is the case, it might well be.

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Don't be surprised if there's an epic bear trap that gets set. A dip from $20k to $17k could fleece a lot of investors. A bump from there up to $22k would cause a lot of those guys to FOMO back in.

this is what im thinking

Interesting and refreshing read. May Altcoins join in the action. But one thing seems to bug me, alt season may not alt season this time because more investors are more aware rather than just blindly throwing profits at whitepapers and promises like last season. What do you think...

the-return-of-dumb-money

Money will be blindly thrown everywhere when Bitcoin is trading above $100k.

More investors are never more aware.
The average is always the same.
Sucker born every minute.

Lool okay we watch and see

Not only does Bitcoin have a way of making novice investors rich, but it also puts everyone else who missed out on those gains into a greed frenzy. People start looking for "the next Bitcoin". That move that's going to make them rich quick.

On top of that people who find themselves with a bunch of expendable money start looking for things to spend it on, no matter how frivolous. Fool Ethereum investors becomes willing to spend $30,000 on a cryptokitty because what else are they going to spend it on? lol.

I just read the post in the link....super apt! It makes sense now. Nothing really changes...they will do it again, just as they've been doing even in Defi craze with unaudited contracts, over $100m lost within 5 months already, not to talk of when fresh money is in a lot of hands during the bull and they hands get itchy. Nice nice...this should be fun

we need to wait for dumb money to come back in though. Theyll wait until they lost a chance at the bulk of the profits :-P 6 months later?

Truth is, the pullbacks hasn't happened and sentimentally a lot of people are waiting for that pullbacks to actually buy, it all makes sense you know. But then it's normal, not a lot of people have seen or known what it means to have coperate money in BTC, PayPal for one so everyone is making speculative gestures about BTC and you know. However you're right, I see 30k too might still maybe two to three weeks in my opinion

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Interesting read, I still need to make my mind up what I want to do.
Ever since 2019 I basically just buy 250$ worth of Bitcoin every month with no intention to sell it any time soon. I continued buying through the Spring crash this year and I bought again a week ago. Ultimately, we'll always go to new highs eventually, but I might be tempted to take some money out if something crazy happens on January 20th.

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You are so smart !

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I think you may be right 21K is not far off.

so you look for a rebuy in february?
but say markets could go crazy after jan 20th?

Nah the market could go crazy on Jan 20th.
Like the final pump before it crashes into the mountain a day later.

Good information

Besides al the technical analysis from past periods, one thing most of the traders seem to forget is Bitcoin is not a regular financial asset for several reasons:

  • It is quite new, historical data is not very long.
  • It is disrupting a very old traditional market just as the interned did with traditional media.
  • There is quite a small liquitidy compared to other markets as many traders are just holding.
  • Besides hodlers, there are estimations that 3M BTC have been lost.
  • The world's traditional economy is sinking.
  • It is decentralized just as the internet, making it quite difficult to control and regulate by centralized governments. All other financial assets are traded in centralized markets.
  • Jumping in is quite easy, no need for brokers as there is no centralized trading.

All these facts make bitcoin forecast quite difficult compared to traditional assets

Besides al the technical analysis from past periods, one thing most of the traders seem to forget is Bitcoin is not a regular financial asset for several reasons:

  • It is quite new, historical data is not very long.
  • It is disrupting a very old traditional market just as the interned did with traditional media.
  • There is quite a small liquitidy compared to other markets as many traders are just holding.
  • Besides hodlers, there are estimations that 3M BTC have been lost.
  • The world's traditional economy is sinking.
  • It is decentralized just as the internet, making it quite difficult to control and regulate by centralized governments. All other financial assets are traded in centralized markets.
  • Jumping in is quite easy, no need for brokers as there is no centralized trading.

All these facts make bitcoin forecast quite difficult compared to traditional assets.

Meanwhile, I'm just calmly tossing a couple of £ per day at BTC like normal over the last 18 months, feeling a little bit relieved that I've made back the 90%+ losses since ATH in late 2017-early 2018!

The double curve you're talking about, I keep forgetting what that is showing - it's the lowest price that BTC is being supported at? What's it based on?

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Good article and good reasoning. But I'll stick to my fractal analysis for the moment, so far it has worked out quite well.

https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-bitcoin-right-on-track-short-term-correction-likely

hey man, congrats on 2k followers!!!