Back in August 2016 I started out on Steemit as @sift666 because some prick had already taken the name @sift so I added 666 on the end hoping to sound all heavy and satanic, but it was like arriving first at a party and having nobody to talk to, and then being asked to go into the kitchen to cut cheese into cubes and stab them with toothpicks like some sort of sadomasochist freak in a gimp mask.
People bleat about the lack of engagement on Hive, but they have no fucking idea. My first posts on Steemit got about five votes, and nobody had any Steem Power so they earned a big fat zero. If I got any comments at all I got all sweaty and had to go and have a shower.
On one of my first posts I got a comment from some guy called @jrcornel. In fact he was one of the first people on Steemit I ever followed. But we have never really interacted all that much over the years, simply because we are not really on the same page about a bunch of things. I suspect he doesn’t even follow me and probably thinks I am an idiot. He once called me a “conspiracy theorist” and seemed to think that was in some way a bad thing...
On Leofinance he is a bit of a player, with his posts constantly showing up in the most popular. He does a lot of posts about Bitcoin, and I agree with him up to a point that Bitcoin is looking good at the moment. But beyond that, even sticking to things financial, we seem to disagree about a few fundamentals.
For example, I think the American economy is heading down the shitter, but he thinks it is about to rebound any minute. Yesterday he came to the end of the road and decided to have it out with me. “Look punk” he said, “put your money where your mouth is and take a bet on it” “OK” I said, “Let’s bet 10 Hive”. “I don’t get out of bed to piss on 10 Hive you pussy” he replied, “make it 100”
Now well out of my comfort zone and getting a bit edgy, I clarified the terms of the bet, and against my better judgement, we agreed to go along with it. This is a crazy punt, a real make or break deal, but sometimes we all have to put our lives on the line and take a wild risk.
So what exactly is the bet?
I am betting that the American economy will be in a state of DEPRESSION by July 1 2021 - Depression as in a 10% or greater decline in economic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters
Revising that on July 1 2021 gives us the first two quarters of 2021 to look at.
Catch is, I suspect it won't be easy to get reliable figures on July 1st, but we can have a search around.
I expect to see a chart like this:
If I lose 100 Hive and Hive goes up to $5 I'll probably think "bugger, I just chucked away $500 by being a cocky prick..." (I'm picking Hive to go up to $5 and Leo to $7 in the next year)
But on the other hand I'm reasonably confident of winning, so it should be fun!
I'm curious to see which side of the fence other people would be on.
A question from @jrcornel:
Q - "if you get an 11% decline in Q1 but only an 8% decline in Q2 I win?"
A - Yes, sticking within this definition of a depression, that would only be a recession - America is already in recession now, so it wouldn't be much of a bet - yes I would only win if it declines more than 10% two quarters in a row. And I'm still confident! (even though I can lose this bet on April 1, but you can't)
The joys of being a contrarian - never fear long odds!
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🤣 Gimp now makes all the sense in the world!
I’m curious as to who's definition of a drop you'll be going with. After all, we know what certain people are like for fiddling the figures. There are some out there trying to convince us the economy is on the up even now and that things have never been better. 🤥
It's just starting to dawn on me how tricky it may be finding good info on this
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If Hive goes up to $5.00, the USD evaluation of your account will be at $500,000.00plus...
$500. is Chump-Change in comparison, ya Cheap bastard...!!!
Good point, thanks for that, I feel calmer now
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I think you'll win.. the US economy is already shit and heading for the sewer.
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I'm thinking along these lines for next month
https://alt-market.us/if-you-thought-2020-was-bad-watch-what-happens-in-2021/
If that article doesn't give a conspiracy theorist a erection my name isn't Dave Dickey..
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Throbbing gristle
Not like your using real money...
I've got to the point where I'm thinking fiat is the monopoly money, cryptos are a workable replacement, and bullion is the only real money.
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You are right on the money ... Fiat is fire tinder.
Let's think about it, record unemployment, huge amounts of money printing and the likely hood that Biden is President, bringing more lock-downs, high taxes and business killing policy as well as spending and printing.
I think you may win the bet and it pains me to say it.
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I'm not all negative long term, but short term I'm expecting the voter fraud to be exposed over the next month, leading to Trump being selected, and an orchastrated (funded) outbreak of blm style riots triggering a civil war as patriots start shooting those clowns.
So I'm picking the US economy to be in total disarray for 2021, meanwhile cryptos become a safe haven as people flee hyperinflating fiat.
In order to have a position to trade from I like to decide on what I'm betting on and revise later if I turn out to be wrong. Some people whose opinions I respect totally disagree with all that stuff, but too bad, I know more about deep state psyops than economics, so I'm running with the manipulated script to create civil war theory.
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Yeah man , youl get your 100 ,.... solid bet .
Yet i wonder , what will a social media coin be worth when millions are in poverty disconnected from daily internet . ;-)
If that scenario plays out, not much!
Believe it or not I'm more optimistic than that - I think maintream social media like Facebook will be part of the train wreck and decentralized platforms like Hive will replace it
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OK , and what keeps Suckerberg from buying the top 20 witness places in Hive ? ,.... can Hive hard-fork away from that ,.. into ,... a killer-hornet nest ?
Dos Hive have a simple code that guards freedom of speech or keeps Hive free from censorship , to keep Hive ( the platform ) the witness , and keep it from becoming the judge ?
Hive ain't that decentralized as i like it to be , it's still open to hostile takeover , Hive needs an constitutional code or something , to protect it from what happened to steem .
Fully agree there!
I'm hoping having a bunch of second layer front ends will work against that, but yeah, it needs more than that...this stuff is way too tech for me, I hope some geeks are on to developing it.
Now I sound like some moron hoping for a vaccine don't I?
Geeks ??? fucking founding fathers Hive needs ,... geeks created communism .
Hope is a fantasy that might not come true ,... like a vaccine that dos not work . ;-)
...Bloody hell - if hive hits $5, I'll have salt and pepper, on my lentils! (with your gracious upvotes of course...,lol)
I wouldn't have taken that bet myself.
Not because it might not be true - but all economic stats for countries, are lies..
Yes, everything is lies...
I'd better start researching this now, it may take six months to find any reliable stats...
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The starting part is always difficult. When you show up, you feel like you are nobody and like nobody cares about what you share. But as time goes on, you get acquainted with it and start making friends too.
This made me laugh out loud!😄
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If nobody cares, then everyone cares!😃
If you vote for nobody? Then who's gonna take the crown and the sit?🤕
Somebody...but they don't care
Oh! Then that somebody gonna rule anyhow he likes...cause no one cares!🐂
I think you might be right @sift666, honestly, with the way things are going, how can the economy not take a dive like that? I would be shocked if it didn't. Of course, and I mean no offense by this, I don't want you to win that bet, but if it will happen anyway, I'm glad you will get something out of it. I remember being on Steemit and the one thing always stressed to me was engagement. I haven't had time recently but before I get on and write, I always read and comment. I think I actually enjoy that better than writing sometimes. There are some awesome people here who write things that I love to read. Have a good one Sift666!
This article is interesting:
https://alt-market.us/is-the-globalist-reset-failing-the-elites-may-have-overplayed-their-hand/
Take care out there in the wild west
I love the article! It's very informative and while I didn't think about them overplaying their hand with the virus and the global reset I felt they did with this election. I moved out to South Dakota when I left my husband because the governor here seems to have more balls than the male republicans who don't stand up for anything. I think they are RINOs most of them. I've seen so much in such a little time I feel like my brain is going to explode one of these days. but each one of the rabbit holes brings me to something else.
I've also gone on the other side of the spectrum and learned about the things that have been hidden from us of our history and who we truly are and I would love to hear your thoughts on consciousness and the Age of Aquarius and 5D because if you research that, it basically says that we are moving into a time of peace and abundance.
Thanks for sharing this article with me @sift666... I love expanding my mind more and learning as much as I can about all of this!
These are mind expanding times aren't they?
Yes I have two thoughts going on at the moment - that this is all about to completely explode, but at the same time it might work out OK in the end...
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I will rise to the challenge!
You're right. A depression to me is 4 quarters of economic downturn. Your definition and my definition would put us both correctly in a depression!
The only way central banks know how to get inflation is through currency printing. This devalues your fiat. Get out of fiat and at least get into stable coins, if not crypto!!
Nice post, glad to see you posting again. Let's keep in touch!
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People have fixed ideas of what a depression looks like based on the 1930's - but I think the current one will look very different, and it hasn't really started yet. There are signs, but it's not full on yet
It's definitely started... 20 million unemployed in the US...debt to GDP over 100% for most 1st world countries. It's here. Doesn't matter if the media aren't reporting it. It's here.
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Haha great post! Good luck my friend, you're going to need it! ;)
Thanks for your vote, it will cover some of my losses!
I bet there were people posting "civil war is about to start" last time, and people probably called them conspiracy theorists.
I do admit, if the election somehow were to get reversed, the country would be a giant mess and you would probably win our bet... the country might tear itself apart if that happens.
Somehow - LOL - the plan is in motion as we speak!
GDP is not a reliable indicator of an economy condition, @frot. But since you have made a bet already… Don’t worry, Hive will not get close to a dollar in 2021 :)
It does seem to correlate with some aspects of an economy - if businesses are going bankrupt (and they clearly already are), surely GDP will plummet?
But I'm not betting on the overall economy - just specifically GDP because I think it is going to totally implode if a civil war is started. And I do think that is the plan.
I remember the burst of action with Steem when it shot up from about 20 cents up to $8, and people were saying the exact same thing just before it did that. So I'm betting Hive won't go under 10 cents, and I actually think it deserves to be valued at over $1, and could well spike over $5 at the whim of a herd of FOMO investors at any moment.
If not, it is still paying me a 16% return from curation rewards, which looks very good next to banks paying about 1%. Yes that is oversimplification, but I know other people are thinking along those lines, and wanting to move their savings out of banking.
I'm speculating wildly here, but these are uncertain times!
Looking forward to the result.
I've made two notes in my new diary to check!
🤣
Now add lots of comments you apathetic numpties, I feel like a cold shower...
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