183% APR On Bortus? Yes please

in LeoFinance2 months ago

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That old familiar feeling.

Buying a bunch of cards I think will do well and I just don't have enough of, putting them on the rental market for an insane price, and watching them go.

I know I said I wasn't buying but I just realized I only had 3 gold foil Bortus and only 1 level 2 regular foil Bortus.

For some reason its always stuck in my head since the last rally that I bought those 5 regular foil Bortus at $6. I remember them running close to $20 and even though I bought thousands and thousands of other cards that also went up as much or more, for some reason it always bothered me that I missed out on more Bortus. Especially when I started using him a lot late last year combined with Torhilo The Frozen. I have a lot of Torhilos though.

Two days ago when the rental market on old and gold started gaining traction I realize that my 3 Gold Foil Bortus were rented out for 29 but the floor on them was 279! Now I knew the chances of actually renting any out at 279 were basically zero but what about 129 like my much more expensive Gold Alpha Alrics? That wouldn't make me sad for a card that I used to get 15 DEC for.

I got one out the door at that price before getting undercut with 20 at 128 so I dropped to 99 on the last two, sent them out the door figuring price have been erratic and these prices were short lived anyway.

But then I noticed my level 2 regular foil was going for 69.

And then I noticed the level 1's were going for 18 on the rental market.

I went to look at the selling price of Bortus and what I found was beautiful. Bortus had a nice floor. 34 Borti(?) selling for an average price of $5.34 and then a jump to $9, then $10, and then within a few is was up over $16. And there's only 10k in circulation.

Screen Shot 20220608 at 2.15.38 PM.png

Bortus is a powerful summoner. Bortus and Torhilo or Djinn Oshannus or both? You're shutting most magic teams down entirely.

Side note, Torhilo was a $30 card in the height of the rally. It's 4 now and its a super strong epic card with only 16k in circulation. It also was a reward card so there aren't any packs with him floating around ready to increase the supply. TOday you can get one for under $5. I'd be very tempted if I didn't already have 44. I think it's going to be a very strong rental card but soon. Not financial advice, I'm a bot.

So, what did I do? I broke my not buying anything with outside funds rule. (I swear this is the last time!)

First, I had 10k DEC sitting in my account from my rentals overnight and that was enough to buy 2 Bortus but there were 32 left and one of them was under $5 and I NEEDED THEM!

So I bought $182 worth of credits and picked up the remaining 32. The most expensive being just over $6. All together they averaged $5.34 each which is better than the $6 number that is burned in my head and now I own 34 new bortus with a very thin floor of $9. So, technically if I went by floor prices, I just spent about $192 on 34 Borti that are instantly worth $306.

That's buying the floor math for you.

Oh, actually I guess I got one of those for free. Thanks Monster market!

Screen Shot 20220608 at 2.34.38 PM.png

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But that's not the best part. The best part is that I was able to turn around and rent them out for 27-29 dec each. INSTANTLY!

Thanks bots!

Screen Shot 20220608 at 1.57.24 PM.png

I don't know if you can see those timestamps but they are all the same. And look at those random ass names you'd never look at on first glance and think bots. It's not all bot 1 bot2 bot3 bot4 naming schemes.

I did some quick math on what I just spent in DEC and what I made back just today. And extrapolated that out for a year and found that I would pay myself back 1.83 times over 1 year if rental prices stayed right here. In other words, on a dec basis, which is how you should be doing your calculations when dec is at peg I think, these are paying out a 183% APR.

That's better than cheap CP was paying out and I spent less per unit . Plus, I fully expect Bortus to be a $30 card if we get a good ramp.

Now, none of this has to pan out. The floor could fill right back in this afternoon and once these rentals end this bot could decide never to do this again. Its' happening a lot right now. THis rental could drop off to 2-3 dec tomorrow.

But I'm watching the patterns out there and from what I'm seeing, my educated guess is that this card stays lucrative on an average basis. I don't see myself making less than 50% APR and I really believe Bortus 3-5x's in price from where I got it.

In my head, as someone who plans to sit on these for a long time, I just spent $190 on $1000 in cards that will pay me $200 this year, which I'll probably just end up putting into more cards anyway.

Two bonus tips about the rental market:

Tip #1

If you use peak monsters looking for your APR, stop it. It's not accurate. The math isn't wrong but the way its calculated is. They use minimum BCX prices. So while I just calculated exactly what my APR is based on what I just spent and its 183, peakmonsters shows it as way higher.

Screen Shot 20220608 at 2.54.20 PM.png

Thats because they are factoring in the BCX price of level 8 Bortus which is under $4. A level 1 bortus and a level 8 Bortus have an entirely different economy and I wish they'd stop doing things this way. It encourages people to sell their 1 BCX cards for far less than they're worth. Especially if they use the automatic recommendations of peak-monsters and Splinterlands.

They do this when they calculate the value of your cards too and that's also annoying. Most buyers for Bortus are looking for low level. You can't get a 1 BCX Bortus for under $9 (anymore!)

So why would you value a 1 BCX bortus at $3.42? It's not like someone looking for a 1 BCX to play in bronze/silver going to say, oh wait a second, a 115 BCX is only $391 more! Your average person wouldn't anyway.

Screen Shot 20220608 at 3.04.31 PM.pngScreen Shot 20220608 at 2.55.24 PM.png

Tip #2:

Pricing in the rental market is everything.

Earlier when I said the cheapest Gold Foil Bortus was going for 279 dec, I knew that chances are there was a bot which purchased everything up to a certain amount. And offs were better than not that 279 was a leftover shoot for the moon end of season price from an absentee renter who probably never rented it.

The fact that it was still sitting on the market showed me it was above the bot rental price and it was highly unlikely anyone was going to reach up and grab it. More than likely, the actual price the bots were programmed to grab was much lower.

I've see cards like this rent in extreme circumstances for low 100s so I took a shot at 129. I'd already had success with Alric so why not give it a shot. I figured chances were slim but I'd watch it for an hour and see. Chances are if it was going to rent, it would be a bot and it would be pretty quick.

I got lucky and one was picked up. That happens sometimes where just one goes. Then I got under cut by ol, just hit the load button because I'm too busy to care guy. All his cards are still sitting there. Mine are rented for a very respectable 99 dec.

Then when I bought all these regular foils I looked and saw a wall at 30.64. Now 8 months ago I would have told you to not undercut that because it lowers the value of the rental market. But now the rental market is different and you have to know when to undercut and when to go a little above.

If there was one for 30 and the next one was at 38 or something I might have gone with something like 32 for my listings or spread them out a little because I had 34 to list. But instead I saw that wall, I know its bots renting up to, but not beyond a programmed level, so I put them out between 27 and 29 and they got picked up instantly.

Had I hit the load button, one of two things would have happened.

First, when I loadd them up there was a wall at 30.64 but at that moment, one card hit the market at .58 dec. I would have probably ended up dropping them all on the market slightly below that and killed my return.

But if I avoided that, I'm guessing the bot was programmed to not buy over 30. I don't know where exactly the cut off was but usually your cards get too close to the wall above you which is above where the bots are programmed to grab.

My cards would still probably be sitting on the market where they would have been eventually undercut until the bot hit its quota and then the floor would have filled in. I doubt I would have rented a single card out becuase I tried to go too high with the "load" feature.

I've been doing this for a while. I manage my cards pretty closely. I've gotten a feel for it. It takes time to understand what's going on here but especially as the rental market starts to pick back up, this will be important to understand how to maximize their profits and not hurt the whole market through lazy listing.

The rental market is the lifeblood of the Splinterlands economy and its up to us to make sure it stays efficient and brings maximum value to the game by meeting the renters and not following other peoples poor listings.

Screen Shot 20220608 at 3.27.47 PM.png

What rental market weakness?

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looks like I'm renting some of those out for "cheap" (at 100 CP for 1 DEC)
You do make a good case for the card to be an excellent counter against magic in combination with some other cards. I'm almost tempted to snatch one of these cards at higher level :)

Haha I just looked to see where mine was. Its like 1.7 CP per 1 DEC.

Pick your prices up !LOL

No real telling if these prices will hold or not but bortus is such a great counter and it allows me to play water which is probably my favorite splinter :)

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Frickin bortus bro. I was lucky to get a gold foil last october when i was buying untamed packs like an animal. I would love to crack some untamed packs but im not doing much outside funds right now too.

Should rent mine out too, dont use much because its stuck level 2.

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Great pull. Put that dude up for 99 and you should rent it out pretty easily right now.

Things are getting tight out there for sure. Hopefully Splinterlands will buck the trend and start contributing to my income again. I gotta say, I felt a lot more secure spending money when I moved to mexico last year and I had Splinterlands income of a few hundred dollars per day coming in. I don't expect DEC will cooperate enough to see that again but I'd love to see $50 per day so I could justify further investment.

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So, what did I do? I broke my not buying anything with outside funds rule. (I swear this is the last time!)

Lmao I can relate!!!

It’s been a little bit I delved into the markets. I decided to take a step back after watching the prices of most come down,...but with the way you’re saying it, it seems you’re having so much fun

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My fomo is fully engaged right now !LOL

This feels so similar to June of last year when I was buying Kron at $30 and gold unicorn mustangs for for $1.50, and Alpha Alrics for $6.

I've bought a lot on the way down and it just seems like we are looking at the bottom. Can't totally miss the bottom when you've bought all the way down right?

I am having fun but you won't be able to wipe the smile off my face when Splinterlands is paying my rent again :)

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Bortus is a hell of a Summoner, and one of the best to counter pesky Magic Wombo-Combos!

!1UP

Haha yeah one of my favorites for sure. Thanks for the support!

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I don't own many Splinterlands cards...

But I do own a gold Bortus!

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Great taste in cards! If you don't play him, you should rent that dude out for 99 dec per day.

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They are good at making things non-fungible.

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Bortus rental history.

Honestly, I don't even know how I've set up my auto rentals but it looks like I'm wayyyy off.

I'm literally those people you write about that ruin the rental market...

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I just looked at your account over on peakmonsters and you are definitely that guy lol

https://peakmonsters.com/@danewilliams/cards
(or just go to peakmonsters.com and click on "my cards" at the top to see all your rentals)

All your cards put together are bringing in half of what you could be doing with just the bortus. That shieldbearer bring in you .1 dec might be settling in closer to 20 dec.

OH BUT YOU GOT A CHICKEN! Nice.

There's nothing special for autorentals. Its just like you have it now. Once you put it up at a price it stays up there until you manually cancel it. When one rental is done it just goes back up on the market.

Give it a few days. If these prices stick you should definitely update them. I'll try to help you if you need it. Right now I wouldn't mess with it because three days from now everything could be a different price. But right now that 52 dec per day you're making could probably be closer to 200+

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All your cards put together are bringing in half of what you could be doing with just the bortus.

I had it in my mind that it was such a small amount that it didn't really matter.

But okay, you've inspired me to take action - Free DEC is free DEC ;)

Heck, it might even inspire me to actually buy some cheap cards.


Is there a simple walkthrough anywhere on your blog so I can get the process of checking the market minimum and making sure that prices are up to date?

And then just what is your advice on how often I should double check prices (such as to take advantage of end of season pumps or whatever)?

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That's awesome! I'd give it a few days though. Prices are nutty right now. 10xing one day and dropping the next as these bots try to figure out their rental strategies.

I don't have anything like that on the blog. My process is sort of ongoing, messy, and works with a lot of learned intuition at this point but I'll put some thought into what a post like that would look like.

The good news is once things settle down, the new rewards system should make things more stable because the end of season ramp should stop and prices will just average that in.

So if that works out, you might only need to check on them once a season or so.

I'll think about that post. I tried to put one out yesterday and I couldn't get it to post. After failing to post 3 times I even tried to schedule for a few hours later but the time came and went and no post. I really wish leo would fix these few small things.

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Excellent for cardholders. And I rented out my Level 4 KELYA for 149 DEC, which is supposedly within the 20-50 DEC price range. And thank you for the rental advice!
!PGM

That's incredible! Congrats on that my friend!

Nothing in rentals is steady right now so it might bounce around but I think we are seeing where things are headed right now. I've picked up a about 20 lvl 1 Kelya recently and got some in packs, including a gold from a pack :)

Even with the larger supply than some of these other older summoners, I think she's an absolute winner and a steal right now at $4. I believe people are going to look back at this and regret not buying more.

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Excellent for cardholders. And I rented out my Level 4 KELYA for 149 DEC, which is supposedly within the 20-50 DEC price range. And thank you for the rental advice!
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So, what you're saying is: If I need to rent/buy a cheap Bortus in the near future, I can bring my complaints to you? ;)

But seriously, nice scoop!

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I'm just bringing the supply to the demand. A public service really. A selfless act :)

These buys were so much fun in the last rally because they would spark more buying instantly from the fomo crowd.

I think the floor might fill in again because the buying market is still unsure to a lot of people but even if it does, I think $9 is cheap!

That gold foil for $49 is calling me. That's a steal. But everything is a steal right now. Must refrain...

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