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RE: Is Splinterlands Bottoming?

in LeoFinance4 months ago

It's hard to say. I think land makes a lot of sense just because its going to take out a lot of inventory from the game and possible create some game theory in terms of where certain assets will be best utilized.Right now there's only two choices. Play them or rent them out. What if your favorite cards to play are also the best ones for production bonuses on your land?

THe reason I hesitate to say land though is because right about that time Rebellion will be coming out. The amount of packs sold in that release is probably going to take land into account so that would limit the effect of land on card scarcity.

Really, I think what they are doing now with the rewards system has the best chance of bringing us back to glory.

I have a weird way of looking at it. I actually think, consciously or subconsciously the devs pulled the plug on the rally last year with purpose when they cancelled bronze rewards.

Remembering back, I had $1600 in dec go missing when transferring it between the game and hive engine. It took close to a month for it to be returned because support was swamped. The servers were crashing nonstop. They had some new developers but they were all brand new and none of them knew how to do or fix anything yet. They'd told everyone land was a couple months out and there was no way that was going to happen on failing tech and no one to build it. They had no more packs to sell so no new revenue. They didn't even have new rewards cards cued up. Even Hive-Engine was failing. They were drowning and I think pulling the plug on bronze rewards was the perfect way to stop the madness and regroup.

Now it's almost a year since that rally started and they have beefed up every system. Got tons of support and tech modernization. Marketing systems in place. Millions in revenue coming in, new teams for every project who are fully acclimated. Cards are cheap again. Dec is back at peg. Bots are figuring out the rental market. And they are about to decentralize some of the decision making process.

I think the rewards update is their way of resparking last years rally. And since 90% of that rally was about bots joining, they are going to do it again. But this year its different because bots have to rent or buy so they can't sit in bronze and rob it slowly without helping to utilize the assets.

I don't really know what other changes would have much of an impact right now. Some of them will probably dampen the growth even. Like being able to burn $1 of SPS to create 1000 dec. I think that will slow growth of the game and not do much for SPS but I'm curious to see it in action.

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Thanks for such an in-depth reply! I've read some mixed opinions on the new rewards system, but at least if you play frequently enough, the cap was removed. I also find your take on land/bots interesting. If they time the release of land around the release of a new set, it makes sense how that could be a wash.

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I think the rewards system is great but most players haven't found their sweet spot yet. The normal pattern is to push up as high as you possibly can on the last day of the season to get max chests. You push to a place that's higher than you can compete but that's fine because you get taken back down the next day.

If they did that this time (and we know they did because the rental market had its second best day ever and everyone wanted those new rewards cards), they are now in a place where they can't get enough FP for the chests they are competing for.

If you are a normal silver player who went to gold on the last day, you're now competing for gold chests which take more FP to open than you win in silver. And if they just push to gold now they can't win enough to open more chests. Either way they are kind of screwed right now. Unfortunately, I haven't seen many people who've quite figured this out yet.

Once players understand what league they should be in, that the chests they should be competing for should match the league they play in, and that season management is a lot simpler now and doesn't require tricks like it used to, I think this system will gain in popularity over the old one.

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