Well, sort of. If you have the right cards anyway.
Let's look at a few mtrics I brought up the other day and then move onto the rental market, what's happening, and what I'd be buying for it right now if I had more money to spend on cards.
The metrics
Yesterday the downtrend in daily active users continued and we hit a 10 month low in active players at just 130k players. Games played stayed easily in its downtrend although up a little from its low a few days ago. But some other interesting things happened. New players bounced off the line yesterday to make anice uptick. Still within the average but an uptick is an uptick.
And rather surprisingly, the amount spent on cards yesterday bounced off that uptrend support line.
That's a little surprising just because prices dropped on many cards. Its a great sign though because it shows that while some people are panicking out, there are dip buyers taking advantage of the situation.
Honestly, I am a little tapped out on investable cash right now and I don't really want to sell anything else I have but I would be a buyer here. There are SOOOO many good deals out there and the rental market is starting to come into focus on what's going to be valuable.
Someone put a chicken up for $10 though and I did have to gank that. I mean come on you guys. Now you're just being silly with these chickens.
Alright but this is a post about the rental market
The reason I started with the above is to show you the type of power that is coming.
We just got through the first 1/3rd of the season. Usually by this point I'm doing somewhere around 9k DEC per day in the rental market and I have about 2/3's of my deck rented out.
These last few days have been dead but today, I'm sitting just under 8k dec.
So right now, with less than 1/3rd of the normal player base active, my rentals are only about 15% below where they would normally be.
Its gets better though.
I'm actually playing. I have a full deck set up for each splinter except death. I just don't care about that splinter. Sorry.
Usually at this point I would have every card I owned up for rent. Now my best cards aren't on the market.
Also, the cards that usually make me most of my DEC are sucking. ALl the high CP cards right now are absolute garbage. Usually I'd be renting out all my preCL gold epics for 50-80 dec at this point per day. Right now many of those cards are going in the teens or 20s. All those new legendaries and rewards cards that have been paying out over 100% APR when combined to max over the past couple months are all paying nothing. None of mine are even rented out because I don't want to bring them that low.
Even a lot of my gold rares that usually bring in about 10-15 dec per day are sitting mostly unrented or going for 2-4 dec.
This is all happening with cards that haven't rented well any days except end of season. These are my gold beta and alpha cards. My gold summoners. The legendary cards tha used to go for hundreds but lately have gone for 10 and are now popping back up to 50 and 100 dec. My Alrics I mentioned to multiple people and was told they are dead. I'm renting out a level 2 Alpha Alric regular foil right now for 100 dec.
Last season I couldn't get 3 dec for him.
The cards that are renting now are the cards that I bought last summer because I thought one day they'd be the go to cards. Some have done well and some have disappointed but right now almost all of them are finding their place in the game.
The last few seasons the whole rental market has been about CP. It hasn't even made sense because CP became so abundant and it was still renting for so much that bot owners I told to are saying they've been operating at a loss.
Nothing made sense about it until you realize its all bots could do to keep playing. Now that those bots are gone and the ones that are left are better at renting useful cards, the generic CP play is mostly done. For now at least.
This rental market coming back with this few players and with this much force in these targeted areas is just another tick in the column of people are serious about playing this game and they are figuring it out. They are playing cards they haven't played before. They are more competitive. Its no longer bot after bot after bot playing starter cards in bronze and silver. That was boring. Now its interesting again. You don't know what you're going to face. The rewards are higher. I'm getting at least 20 chests per day now for under an hour of play.
I even did a dragon focus yesterday. I always re-roll dragon!
But here we are. And guess what? Those bots that went away aren't really gone.
They're going to come back and if they don't come back they will sell their accounts to other bot accounts with better rental tech.
And when those guys come in with the full force of 400-500k accounts working the rental market, the CP strategies will come back. All those gold cards that currently aren't renting are gong to rent again. Prices are going to shoot above what we've seen for end of season rallies for the past 8 months on a daily basis.
Which is why it is insane to me that right now, cards are on sale. Almost all of them are.
I would love to bring in a quick $10k into this market because I fully believe I could add another 30-50k dec per day to the income I'm expecting by the end of this year with that. Plus, they won't stay this cheap.
If you have cash laying around and its not at least a little bit on your mind to throw it into buying some of these cheap gold and legendary cards (maybe not so much the rewards cards but CL is probably fine), I'm seriously wondering why not?
What I would be buying right now?
So what would I be buying right now if I could. Chickens. Seriously they are $13. I know I keep harping on these but the cards people are paying for are the playable cards. I've seen level 1 chickens jump to as higher as 70 dec per day because a few bots rented early in the season to push up quickly to silver. I could see a wold where a chicken rents for 100 dec per day or 36500 dec per year. Right now you can buy them for 13,000 DEC. That would be almost 300% APR on the cheapest chickens right now.
Mylor. Mylor is a beast at lower levels. In teh last ramp up I bought 100 of them and was renting them out for 40 dec per day when dec was worth 10x what it is now. I pushed the price from $20 to $35. Today they are back at $20. That's stupid. You know what ever last person in bronze 1 is playing? A level 1 mylor. There'a only 16k or them and you know more will be combined. Today I rented out a level 2 mylor for for 89 dec while the level 1s are still going for 1 dec.
Summoners. Just all the summoners. Especially any deals you can get on gold summoners. You can get some beta summoners for under $10. That's stupid too.
Any gold foil epic card from untamed or before that's under $100. Any gold foil legendary card thats under $100. Preferably CL instead of rewards cards.
Beta gold rare cards under $100. Alpha gold cards under $200. Alpha and beta rare cards period. Especially the ones like Frozen soldier though who are absolute beasts to play with in many games and are going for a few bucks in beta and like $12 in alpha.
Like any of these cards...
Especially those cheap Alrics. Think about Alric for a second. Water has amazing magic capabilities but you need Alric to play them. They don't make that dude anymore. There are no more magic summoners coming that we know of right now for water. Alric is money and you can get a beta Alric for $60!
CL legendary cards. Kron. Any card in CL that currently has a market already. The gold foil disintegrator or whatever that's going for $2 and I see played all the time in silver. Card like those are abundant now but they will not be when the bots reappear and growth starts back up.
I mean, its hard to lose right now. There' so much out there worth buying.
The only cards I would completely stay away from right now, just for a little while, are the new new rewards cards. Those are still coming in heavy so they probably will drop a bit more.
That's what I'd be doing right now anyway but of course none of this is financial advice I'm a moron and you'll lose all your money.
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I like your advice even with the disclaimer. I bought two chickens at $12 and I am on the hunt for more. Looks like I will be adding some summoners also. I agree the rental market is toast at the moment, but change brings chaos and chaos brings opportunity. It's hard to run against the crowd, but I plan to keep stacking cards. One area to consider is that the strong rentals are the new cards. I expect the value of the cards to drop, but that might balance out against the strong return the cards are bringing on the rental market at this time. Adapt and overcome!
Nice grab on the chickens. It's finally going to be the time of the Chicken. So glad I've built up a nice supply of them. I'll certainly be picking up more if they stay at this price much longer.
There just seem to be two different markets going on right now and unfortunately those who found amazing profitability in the cheap CP for bots strategy are going to have to wait a bit for that market to come back. I think it will but many of those people are now conditioned to look at nothing but dec/CP and that's going to cause them to sell cards they shouldn't be selling right now.
The funny thing is a few hours after I put up this post, my rentals got to 12k dec which is slightly above where it would usually be by this point in the season. That just proves your point that opportunity is arising from all this chaos and those who can afford to adapt will do quite well right now and going forward.
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I feel that this new Reward System will incentivize to players rent way stronger cards, and not only useless high-CP cards to inflate their CP 1 day before the end of Season. People now want to win games to earn more chests!
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I agree. This is already creating such a more interesting game and it's balancing the game so the right cards are becoming valuable again.
All that cheap CP before wasn't just good for end of season. You could buy and max out any of the cheap rewards cards and make 100%+ APR even without the end of season ramp. It seemed like there was no limit to the amount of demand for those cards as so many people kept scooping them off the market, maxing them, and renting them. And as fast as they could be bought and maxed, more were coming out of chests and hitting the market. It made no sense and I'm glad its ending even though I have a bunch of those cards idle now.
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Your analysis is great, and you don't get lost in the fog.
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I find it interesting how by shifting the incentives for playing via a rewards overhaul, the rental market appears to have turned itself inside out. Before, junk CP was still useful to rent because it helped spike through the leagues on the last day. Now, as many have pointed out, skipping leagues is pointless unless you can compete at that level to earn the chests. Thus, junk CP is now actually junk in terms of rentals.
I'm curious if that's something the dev team will want to address, or maybe the many new changes will scoop them up along with the rest in terms of thinks like using cards for land.
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Its almost a totally different game now. It really is cool to see how changes to rewards can transform everything.
The thing about the jump CP that was relaly crazy is that while it did spike on the last day, it was renting for over 100% APR even without that last day ramp up. It was be far the most profitable way to enter the rental market. I think this way is far better and encourages a much more interesting game. Part of the reason I stopped playing was because when CL came out, the lower leagues became the same game over and over again. Bots just played the starter cards until they got five wins. Nothing else mattered. Some would o it in in bronze 3 and some would rent some CP and do it in Silver 1. It's so much better and more interesting already.
There are still lots of bots renting junk CP in the same way that many higher level accounts are just sitting on cards they don't play in order to maintain CP. But now its just the bots who are advanced enough to also rent playable decks that win who are scooping it up. Most of the bots that were renting that CP all season don't know how to do that so they are gone so there's an oversupply. Once those bots figure it out or sell the accounts to more advanced bot builders, that junk CP strategy should come back. But when it does, the strong card strategy won't be taking the backseat role like it has been for the past several months. People/bots will rent strong cards first in order to win with real cards and Cheap CP will be secondary but still necessary like it is for human players.
If I'm right, there won't be anything to address. Honestly, I'm loving splinterlands more by the day. This fall off gave me pause but a few hours after I posted this, my rentals surpassed what they would normally be by this point int he season with only 1/3 the player base. The potential right now is astounding and I feel really terrible for the people who went all in on the CP strategy, are hurting now, and are panicking out without seeing the other side of the market foreshadowing a return.
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You raise a good point about lack of variety due to bots. One thought I had about the chest focus mechanic is that it encourages players to "lock in" to a splinter or theme for a longer stretch which allows for better counterplay. If your opponent is running pure Nature, what do you do? If they know you're running pure Fire, what would they if they guess what you're going to do?
I feel like that's a healthier kinda game theory than what sometimes felt like pure RNG when seeing 5 different decks in a player's history multiple games in a row.
That is interesting. I haven't seen anyone point out the positive aspects of the single splinter focus yet like you just did.
The devs said in the next week or two most of that will change though. They are going to include many more focuses that have nothing to do with splinter. They said you'd still get the occasional splinter focus but most days it would be something else
That might put it back toward to RNG approach but it will also vary up play even more and cause more cards to be taken off the market. One of the downsides of the daily splinter focus is that people can just rent one day for that focus. If your focus isn't splinter focused I think people will rent for a few different splinters each day.
There's so much left to change lots of intended and unintended consequences coming
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I think the CP strategy is backfiring on me but won't the current cards also go up in price once they aren't in print anymore? Then again, there is a huge supply of cards. I will have to re-evaluate what I buy but it is definitely changing up the market.
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Yeah I expected the CP strategy to take a hit but nothing as severe as its been. I think its just a matter of time before it comes back though. Bots need to figure out how to rent and play the cards that allow them to win rewards. Once they do that, the CP grind will come roaring back as they all compete to get those silver chests.
As far as values going up when cards go out of print. I mean, they tend to do that because the liquid supply goes down since bots aren't winning them and sending them straight to the market but its still always going to come down to how useful the card is and how hard it is for people to get.
A card like Djinn Oshannus has 66k copies out there now and that will probably double before the run is over. That's a great card from bronze to champion and that's why there are only 345/66k on sale right now. That card has the ability to run back up to $10 or more after it goes out of print even with that many copies out there because no one is going to want to sell so the liquid supply will be low. But that was a $40 card early this year and people were saying then that it would go higher when it went out of print.
For most of these cards were are just too far away from the end of their print cycle to know what increasing in value looks like.
Hang in there. I think this is shaping up beautifully. Let's see how the market treats wild and modern. It sounds like they're talking to many gaming guilds who want to come in and just play modern. If that's true, we could see a large influx of players once that starts up who are only able to play with these new cards. That could add some renting pressure on CP and create more demand in these abundant new cards.