More BTC being HODLed means a rally is right around the corner

in LeoFinancelast month

Bitcoin supply that hasn't moved in over a year hit an all time high, and that's historically been a good thing

As I posted about the other day, roughly 61% of the total supply of bitcoin hasn't moved in over a year.

And, narrowing down even more, roughly 73% of the total supply of bitcoin hasn't moved year to date.

More on those can be seen here btw:

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/more-than-61-of-the-total-btc-supply-hasn-t-moved-in-over-a-year-same-setup-we-saw-in-2016

https://hive.blog/hive-167922/@jrcornel/only-27-of-btc-total-supply-has-moved-in-2020

That lack of movement by the vast majority of coins has historically been a very good leading indicator.

In fact, it's exactly what we have seen leading up into the two prior major bull market rallies that also followed their block reward halving events.

Check it out:

(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rally-by-2021-looks-likely-from-five-fundamental-factors)

As you can see on the chart, less and less of the supply moves as bitcoin has traditionally started it's bull market rallies.

Then, at some point along the way, a tipping point is reached where that metric starts heading back down as more BTC starts moving and the price continues to climb higher.

BTC being held looks like a pretty reliable trading indicator...

Based on the above data, one could argue that the number of BTC not moving in percentage terms, dropping, is a good leading indicator that perhaps a top is on the horizon.

If you don't see that number start to trend down and the price is trending down, perhaps we are not near a top yet.

In both of our previous large bull market rallies, the percentage of BTC being held as started to move down about halfway through the move up.

Even looking at the smaller rallies, you see that the percent of supply not moving has started down before the price has just about in every single setup.

Given that kind of precision, it seems that perhaps this is an indicator that is worth paying attention to.

And if history is our guide, this recent bull market isn't even close to half way over as the percentage of BTC not moving is continuing to climb.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

Posted Using LeoFinance

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Fascinating how the chart mirrors so precisely. It does look as a good way to call both top and bottom at least on longer time frame.

Yep, looks like something worth paying attention to me. Added to my repertoire! :)

Careful, data is not pure. The number of centralized exchanges massively increased during the last cycle, and those exchanges hold 95%+ of their BTC in cold storage without ever moving them. They only need to moved a small percentage of total holdings to provide the needed liquidity.

So even though, people are moving their bitcoin between exchanges and wallets, it doesn't get registered on the blockchain as it only sees the same coins moving back and forth, while in truth it's different people using the same coins.

The wave has to go much higher for it to be significant, I think.

Regardless, the correlations have been uncanny thus far. I say pay attention to them until they stop working.

Well....we can't tell exactly if throughly btc is being moved or not, due to centralized exchanges that hold users coins.

If all exchange was non custodial like ChangeNOW then tracking and analysing would be more easier and predictable.

I think it's time we all start holding our coins. Meanwhile i am bullish about bitcoin this year.

Yea I believe this is on chain data.