Author: @madridbg, through Power Point 2010, using public domain images. Vnukko
Greetings and welcome dear reader in this precious platform, as you all know we are in the presence of a major setback in the main cryptocurrency of the blockchain world, referring to Bitcoin, behavior that has generated the rest of the cryptoassets generate substantial setbacks, which has caused an accelerated fear in bullish investors.
Therefore, it is to be expected that behind this significant pullback, some fundamental is generated that has caused the pullback in the price of Bitcoin and consequently a bleeding in the generalized market, so that making a conceptual approach we have realized that the reception caused or looming in the United States of America may be the cause of the generalized fear that is evident in the crypto market, which has caused BTC to somehow correct, perhaps in search of generating capital to continue rising or it is possible that we have entered a new bearish phase that will take the price of the asset below $30,000.
If we make a retrospective of history, we will realize that the United States has two sad scenarios at economic level, being the first in 1929 which historians call the Great Depression, a phenomenon that managed to explode and generate a consistent bankruptcy of Wall Street and the collapse of the banking system at that time, which generated widespread poverty in this great power.
Also in 2008, there was a great recession, a crisis that in a way generated the birth of cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin, so that this great recession left in check a large number of Americans as many knew the bankruptcy economically speaking, which generated insecurity and destabilization in the country's economy.
Undoubtedly these two scenarios have marked a before and after in the U.S. economy, which is why it is not unreasonable to think that under the traditional economic model that is currently being addressed, concepts associated with inflation, unemployment, crisis and recession come to the fore, variables that generate a terror that currently live among the members and society of this country.
To be more specific, according to the survey conducted by Alianz Life, 6 out of 10 Americans assume that they have entered a period where the economic recession is imminent, so it is necessary to understand and understand that a recession in economic terms implies that the country in general, will present a decrease in gross domestic product for two consecutive quarters, a process that has already been evidenced in the United States, which has resulted in high inflation which has coincided abruptly with the full fall of the stock markets.
Now, based on the above, it is valid to ask ourselves, will the economic situations in the United States have any impact on the cryptographic world? From my perspective it is a resounding yes, because if we make an assessment of the last few months we realize that the price of BTC closely follows the adverse scenarios that are arising in the United States, so that the price of Bitcoin is reacting according to the measures of the Federal Reserve of the North American country and due to the behavior of Wall Street.
Which leads me to think that this economic situation is due to the fact that since 2022 Bitcoin is being obtained by large medium and small investors as a possible substitute or refuge of value, without leaving aside that it is also considered as a high risk asset, so it is assumed as a highly speculative investment.
Therefore, and in my opinion, it is not surprising that if the recession that is looming in the United States is completed, we would be seeing even stronger setbacks in the price of digital assets that would lead us to a new downward path that would guide the price of cryptocurrencies to historic lows.
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As wonderful as cryptocurrency can be-- with as much as it promises each us of-- the fact is that the economic situation globally, regionally, nationally, and locally will turn worse for each of us before it turns better. If we can maintain access to cryptocurrency (and that is a big "if"), then we will be OK. When the CBDCs go online as replacements for fiat currencies, then we will have reached a low point in whatever degree of freedom we have.
We will need alternative economic systems to develop, and this may mean going to lower tech and staying there for a while until we can break free of the controls imposed on us.
As the situations in both Eastern Europe and China are showing, we will need be readjust our economies to operate at a lower scale with a lower degree of raw material inputs. Whether green energy sources work as expected or not will not matter: fuel consumption in absolute terms will drop.
Eventually we will return to an economy similar to that of 2019. Unfortunately, it will not be within the next several years. If we go by 2019, it was only than that economic conditions in the United States felt as if they returned to levels last seen in August 2001.
Commodities will reassert their rightful places as the foundations of sound economies. Whichever nations prepared for this eventuality will do well. Those which failed to anticipate this change will fail. USD may yet survive as the world's reserve currency for a few more years, but its days are numbered and other nations can see this now.
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Greetings @magnacarta first of all congratulate you for such a good analysis of which I agree in many aspects, since in the short term there must be a relationship between fiat money and the use of cryptocurrencies.
So the transition must be slow and gradual to allow us the necessary time to adapt to the global economic scenario.
Greetings
Greetings to you as well!
The transition to adapt to the global economic scenario must be slow and gradual, so on this we agree. However, Those in a position to influence the global economy are in agreement on making these changes according to a much shorter timetable. It's as if they deliberately want to bring about a crash of unprecedented scale in order to sweep away the wreckage with whatever solution they have in mind.
Knowing how these people operate, I believe that those who will benefit happen to be those who brought about the current situation in the first place. This gives me zero confidence in what will happen with you, with me, and with the rest of us.
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