I had this discussion with Khal on discord yesterday, and I thought it would be better as a video.
In the very worst case scenario, everyone dumps all their LEO earnings and the buyback program is the only buyer. We would need 11k of ad revenue daily in order to make that work out to 2 USD/LEO. And that would mean we need to grow our userbase by 700x. Tough, but doable.
Currently market prices are 40x above that worst-case scenario, so we would need to grow users by 35x to hit that same number with a more realistic market.
M. O. O. N. spells moon.
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Great analysis and now the numbers make more sense with other boom launches. While there is impressive place to grow we must be realistic about that and have a good strategy when the right time comes to take a piece of the pie, but still leave enough for future growth. All is clear is that community will remain regardless of what happens, thus is important to continue building here.
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Yep, in a social project like this community is everything.
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I am thinking bigger... Mars target $20 per LEO.
Disclaimer: This price target is not backed by any facts :P!
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$751 LEO.
Bank on it.
Disclaimer: This price target was arrived at using crayons and construction paper.
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Made me chuckle!
Calling r/wallstreetbets
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When you factor in the fact that the LEO site's ad placements aren't ideal for conversions/display, that they're only using one ad network instead of multiple to compete for bids, that they don't have any direct buying or programmatic buying and the fact that the content niche is a high LSM if all that was optimised you could easily double or triple your CPM and CPC's giving you even more capital to do buybacks.
Having multiple inventory suppliers is key in the ad game to drive revenue so your floor could be reached even quicker than your calculations here with a little bit of marketing know how
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Yes, there is plenty of optimization to be done when the traffic numbers justify it. CPMs could be much higher.
Developing an email list for partner opportunities would also be a revenue multiplier.
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$2 LEO implies $3 Hive?
Not necessarily. Because LEO is going beyond HIVE in functionality, the tether between LEO price and HIVE price breaks.
Let's say 100k Ethereum users are onboarded to leofinance. Leofinance would need a million hive power to make all those accounts functional. That's a nice little chunk but not enough to move the price significantly, and certainly not long term.
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Nice.
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I love the fun with numbers approach.
Sound approach in this modeling here.
The traffic numbers you mention is low when we consider the totality of the internet. That is the absurdity of all this. 140K users really is very little overall when we consider the enormity of the web.
I had to make a video to expand upon the ideas you brought forth here.
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Yep. Drop in the bucket.
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Good stuff and I agree. Just for a quick comparison, LEO could trade for $10 and still be worth less than both HIVE and STEEM are currently...
HIVE market cap is currently 92x bigger than LEO market cap. So we'd need a price of 10.85 USD/LEO to reach market cap parity with HIVE, ceteris paribus.
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Bingo...
Interesting discuss here. $2 per LEO with 700x users is an amazing stat for worst case scenario. If we half that, we could have $1 per LEO for 350x users. Iterating that at the present 40x (market price) above that worst-case scenario would mean 17.5x userbase growth. I think that's more realistic. Now, how do we achieve this?
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Spread the word
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The discussion around ad revenue providing a floor for the token is a good one.
Furthermore to that, I think LeoPedia is really undervalued in my opinion and has huge potential.
Keyword driven, long form content has the potential to generate a huge amount of organic traffic from Google.
With that traffic comes ad revenue yes, but a revenue stream that we haven't considered here is affiliate links to brokers.
Just look at what Investopedia does at the bottom of all of their articles for a model.
I'm still not sure the direction you guys want to take LeoPedia in, but it's a thought for the future to help add weight to the floor.
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Yeah, I agree that LeoPedia is very underutilized
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From where I am sitting, it looks entirely possible that we'll end up with the value of LEO > Hive. I just remember how a little speculation via a couple of Korean exchanges knocked SBD way off its peg, both in June 2017, and then really in December/January 2017. The point being that it happened quite easily because the supply was very limited... so it didn't take all that much on the buy side to get us off to the races.
Something similar could happen to LEO if "someone" out there decides there's a worthy project here. Now whether such a run-up would last is a different kettle of fish.
Very interesting analysis!
=^..^=
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It has all the right ingredients. Low supply, most of it locked up and a decent amount of demand now its going on uniswap and its not on any major exchange yet. Im expecting fireworks personally.
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