The distribution of Hive Power has become more equal over the last month, according to a comparison of @argange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.
Below I look at trends in distribution from May 1st 2020 to May 31st 2020, based on all MVESTs and all users.
Looking at distribution based on all MVESTS should give us the most valid picture of how actual 'power' on hive is distributed. While <50K/ 150K MVESTS register as 'active', 133.893 MVESTs (down from 140K on 1st April)) are presently voting for the current number one witness (@gtg), which is around 90% of total MVESTs.
This tells us that 90% of MVESTS are actively deployed (rather than dormant because of lost keys etc.), even if the users who control it aren't actively using it to make transactions on a daily basis.
The Hive per Vests ratio was 0.00051350 on May 1st (0005123 on 1st April) (Hiveblocks.com)
This analysis doesn't take account of the 80 Million liquid HIVE currently not staked in the DAO.
Trends in distribution by MVEST levels
1st of May 2020
31st of May 2020
| Level | % of total MVESTS 1st April | % of total MVESTS 31st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 42.4% | 36.31% |
| Orcas | 26.09% | 29.46% |
| Dolphins | 18.04% | 19.07% |
| Minnows | 8.89% | 9.97% |
| Redfish | 4.58% | 5.19% |
The share of total MVESTS held by Whale accounts has decreased dramatically by just over 6% in the last month, with Orcas increasing by 3.5%, Minnows and Dolphins picking up 1% each and Redfish 0.5%.
I probably wouldn't read too much into this, it's probably just the exchange Power Downs working their way through!
Trends in distribution by number of accounts
I decided to included this just for reference too!
1st of May 2020
31st of May 2020
| Level | No. of accounts 1st May | No. of accounts 31st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 35 | 33 |
| Orcas | 311 | 311 |
| Dolphins | 2019 | 1904 |
| Minnows | 9156 | 9072 |
| Redfish | 1368472 | 1375884 |
One less whale account, the same amount of Orcas, 200 fewer Dolphins and almost 100 fewer minnows accounts, seems like 10% of lower level accounts Powering Down and no one new coming through to take their place!
Commentary/ Analysis
The big shift here is the increasing amount of stake vested to Orca accounts - the number remain the same, but the average stake increases - and I guess the same can be said for both Dolphins and Minnows too - where there is more stake overall, but spread between fewer accounts.
So while this means there is greater equality when we look at these mid-level accounts compared to whales, there are reducing numbers of people the mid-level stake is split between.
I guess this should make for more effective democracy - it's easier to co-ordinate fewer people each with a larger stake rather than more people with smaller stakes.
However, it doesn't bode well for the growth of the platform!
This also confirms the feeling of I've had of Hive becoming reduced to a handful of largish accounts posting and getting nice rewards for fairly mediocre posts - A sort of decreasing Dolphin and Orca Bubble.
If that doesn't changes, we'll be more equal and all of us poorer!
Sources:
Have been testing the platform for over a month, posted daily and tried different communities and dapps.
So far have gathered 18HP and 4HBD, which does not even show in decimals, what comes to upvoting. So for beginners, the incentive to vote is pretty low.
Also with the limited actions, many people have chosen a different platform. It might be hard to see how it is for the small fish.
The amount of active users is a bit surprising, since only a few people seems to join in daily. Really see the potential, but some things are too off for the majority, probably.
I remember what it's like to start off, it is tough going - you really have to churn, comment and engage, AND TBH buy Hive - when you buy in people upvote you! It's much harder to earn you way up!
Yeah, most of my friends are not greedy, so the earning is not the point. Many think it is a scam, since one basically needs to buy Hive in order to have any effect or have priviledges to even use the blockchain (HP).
Having been in cryptos since the mining of BTC was done with Sempron processors,so kind of know what works and which things ruin a good idea. Thought the Sun incident taught something, not so sure anymore :P
This is not true as I haven't bought 1 Hive or 1 Steem. You have to realise it takes commitment and time in order to grow. I only started kicking off after 6 months. Just keep grinding away and you will see what is possible.
The growth of a middle class was touted as being a good thing in the past... ?
These are your Hive votes:
And mine:
So we are to blame? :)
It's why I think delegating to a curation project is a good idea, they tend to vote newer accounts, I think...
curangel:
Yup. There's a post on this somewhere inside me today I think :)
Edit:
The other point you make is that the smaller accounts are becoming less. That doesn't happen by receiving upvotes so I assume they are powering down. Not much we can do about that....
We probably are to blame, we're part of the circle, quite similar numbers of votes there, and I bet you'd find the same for nearly everyone on our vote lists!
Curation initiatives really are a great thing, they certainly kept me going.
Interesting stats those.
A post would be really great :)
Working on it now :) A bit unsure of the angle, but will probably suggest delegation/leasing to curation projects as a good way to help grow the community from the bottom up.
That would be fabulous - and I agree :)
Actually, leasing offers quite good returns compared to many people's personal curation. Depends whether accounts want to maximum their returns to the n%, or whether they are prepared to receive a few percentage points less for the overall growth of the platform.
I have seen curie asking for leases, and think that probably gives a better return than curangel - not checked for sure.
Some people will always go for max ROI, some will mix, and some will be selfless and looked at funny :) I'm in the middle, although looking at my numbers could do better.
This is the smartest thing I read all day. I just follow random people who do alright in terms of curation for half my votes and manually vote the rest.
A solid approach. I think i'm going to assess my votes and free up for some more manual action.
We are getting a better distribution of rewards, but I think there is still too much going to some people that appear to be down to automated voting. Of course the projects that add value to Hive deserve something, but I do not think they should self-vote.
I appreciate that people do not have time to do manual voting, but supporting trusted voting trails that seek out underrewarded posts would be better and may actually give better curation rewards.
My @tenkminnows project votes on small account to try to level them up and I will review the list periodically. We cannot afford to keep losing the 'small fry'.
I wonder if the migration of @splinterlands to Hive will help matters, but then a lot of people who play that do not blog or vote.
I think auto-voting does make people complacement for sure, but I'm sure 10K Minnows will help, along with other manual curation initiatives.
The thing with Splinterlands is a bit depressing, there's some really decent upvotes to be had for blogging about playing!
A lot of bots there though - 100s!
Well at least the Splinterlands move makes Hive more relevant. Steem is losing projects. Now Appics are supporting posting to Hive, but I think they support Steem too.
Well, it looks like this "middle class" is getting bigger but I'd say there's been so much disruption, there's exchanges powering down after the furore and some of the accounts that were probably against Hive and the downvotes they received are on the way out.
It's still early days really and I think there'll be a normalisation period over the next 6 months once all powerdowns have been concluded from the hard fork where we'll have a better picture so it'll be good to compare these graphs in December too!
I delegate to curie and will also delegate some to curangel and other curation initiatives as they are trying to keep new users here with their initiatives.
I think Hive needs to really decide what it wants to be because if we want "the masses", it needs to be familiar and "FB/Twitter" like but with all the economics kinda running under the hood - still think the chasm is vast but it will come with mobile apps like dapplr and games being developed. It's going to take some time...
I agree with everything you say!
I think most of the PDs will be done by July, so that will be interesting to see, but then there's that 20 odd million disputed Steem, that could make a massive difference to the distribution!
Delegation to those curation accounts is something I think I should do too.
I thought the 'faces of Hive' community is about as close as we've come to normalisation - it was quite a relief TBH, and I really hope Dapplr gets funding!
Posted Using LeoFinance
Yeah that 23 million or so is still up in the air. Do you know if the steemit inc stake that was moved to the DAO is a permanent move or is it until things settle down a bit? That would also have a great impact too! Guess we have have to accumulate as best we can now and distribute more to curation initiatives that support new users, or at least we can follow curation trails that support them.
Yeah definitely an active group that selfie one and we need more like it. Even just a "wine and dinner" instagram style community would do wonders because the amount of posts like that I see on FB is ridiculous (not my thing but it's what everyone does - if they can get a few bucks from it towards buying their next dinner then so be it)!
I've supported the dapplr proposal and looking forward to using it, hope it gets enough support because then everyone can share their selfies even easier then!
'wine and dinner' - I honestly didn't know that was a thing, it all sounds a bit too 'come dine with me' for my liking.
That steemit stake is a permanent move as far as I know, unless the community (Freedom and Blocktrades) decide otherwise and vote to do something else with it.
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It's something I just made up now because I saw nothing but dinner pics and wine pics in my fb feed for months before I thought, "that's enough of that shit"!
Well, I look forward to seeing what the community you mentioned decides :o)
What I notice over the last month based on the images is ACTIVE whale MVESTs have increased while active MVESTS on orca and dolphine have both dropped.
Interesting point, I hadn't looked at that! Although I think the definition of 'active' is pretty broad.
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The whales will devour themselves - several people vote for posts at 10 cents - redistribution of coins does not happen - there will be no growth - the platform will die - large accounts are to blame - (my pesemistic forecast) but there is an optimistic one, but that's another story.
I'm inclined to agree - when you're new it's very depressing seeing a handful of accounts getting massive upvotes! We do need a shift towards equality I think.
Everyone who came should stay - for this you need to reward people with the goal of retention - when after 4-5 months they will understand all the difficulties and understand crypto, only then can they be required to provide high-quality posts and so on. Not giving out big rewards, the whales run the risk of being left with a bunch of coins that cost nothing and no one needs.
It's early days after a massive disruption (the Hive fork) and when the world is in flux. I agree with @abh12345 about curation trails helping to address longer-term growth; communities is the other innovation which has great potential. In the northern hemisphere, we're heading into summer when everyone with any sense and the wherewithal has better things to do, but come September, after time to get the foundations in place, the communities I'm involved with are planning for an increase in activity.
Yes, changing times, we do need to wait for things to settle! Gives me something to write about though, also interesting to see the shift.
September's a pretty nice month too, I'd wait until October if I were you!
September and sometimes October - one year I was on the beach on 31 October, brilliantly sunny day, bbq, the lot! I agree, though, interesting to see and monitor the changes. I'm glad you've started doing these sorts of posts again, and the extreme retirement ones, always helpful and interesting :)
It's just a matter of time really, I do really enjoy writing about this stuff, now that a lot of my work has stopped I've got a lot more time! Also a natural link between this leo platform and the early retirement topic!
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Isn't that concerning ?
I think so!
Possibly it's being reflected in the declining Hive price now too?!?
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