On 5th May, Sweden released it's Q1 2020 GDP results. Their economy had contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter.
This prompted a lot of gloating from various columnists saying that Sweden had not benefitted economically from it's decision not to lockdown it's country like the rest of the world. Sweden had responded to the coronacrisis by telling it's citizens to practice hygiene and social distancing, but left all the schools, pubs, transport and businesses open.
We now have the first quarter GDP results from other countries.
Here is how they compare:
Sweden: -0.3%
USA: -1.2%
Netherlands: -1.7%
UK: -2%
Germany: -2.2%
Austria: -2.5%
Italy: -4.7%
Spain: -5.2%
France: -5.8%
As you can see Sweden has outperformed everyone. Everyone is in the biggest contraction they've ever had, while Sweden has had a minor slowdown.
While it's true that the Swedish economy contracted in the first quarter, that only happened because all their trading partners had locked down so they couldn't export to their normal customers abroad. However a contraction of 0.3% is tiny in the context of what has happened abroad. And their unemployment, has stayed lowish. They printed unemployment of 7.1% in March which was DOWN compared to February when it was 8.2%.
So they have definitely preserved their economy by not locking down.
Ah, say their critics. But what about the deaths in Sweden because they haven't locked down?
90% of their deaths are people over 70 who were in poor health, and would have passed away later this year anyway. Their deaths are also trending downwards, despite not locking down, thanks to a combination of Swedish people being prudent, washing hands and observing social distancing, along with the effect of summer and the increased ultraviolet light which reduces all coronaviruses as the northern hemisphere tilts towards the sun.
The rest of the world has been yelling at them and hurling insults. Some have mistakenly accused Sweden's centre-left government of being money-mad and "right-wing". But they're not money-mad nor right-wing. What they are is committed to liberal democracy which says that you advise your citizens of the precautions they should take to avoid disease, but you don't lock them up. They have been dismayed that the rest of the world followed the example of authoritarian China instead.
Sweden's scientists also believe the rest of the world has got the science wrong too. Coronaviruses tend to circulate from northern hemisphere to southern hemisphere and back again, always seeking winter. That means a second wave will hit once the seasons change again later this year. But the Swedes will have become immune by then as most of them will have got the disease in the last five months and survived to carry on with antibodies. Yes their death toll is higher than their neighbours right now - but they won't be hit by a second wave of deaths in winter. And they won't have to seal off their borders when that second wave hits.
And they will have achieved it all without hurting their economy. They've been stunned by how much criticism has been directed towards them, but to their credit they stoically toughed it out and carried out their strategy.
This is a tough, brave nation and when the history books are written, they will be deemed to be the sensible winners of this crisis.