No clickbait, no happy ending.
I've spent the last couple of weeks digging through my assets and taking stock of what happened in 2020. I always write down a few things so that looking back I have an idea of what happened during said time.
While I was really scared at the beginning of 2020 that my investments were going negative across the board, by the end of 2020 I had a pretty pleasant finish.
All of my assets went up in value.
All but three of them. Two of them are shares of consulting companies I bought some time ago (and should probably sell, honestly... that's why there are no names) and the third asset is Hive. Here, the losses on the stocks are relatively small and still far from being double digits (looked quite bad at mid-year). Hive is a different story. Even though I only hold a tiny stake in Hive and also get some rewards, I can say the following from an investment perspective:
Hive is my worst investment in 2020.
The bottom line is that I made about a 25% loss when you offset the rewards I received. Rewards accrued in the course of Cryptohunt are not included.
Not a drama considering I only invested a few hundred euros in Hive. But still something that makes me think. I wonder why Hive performed so poorly. I don't have any answers to this, except that from my perspective, Hive has a low presence in the cryptocurrency world and an even lower presence in the social media space. There is limited marketing taking place and the barrier to entry for new users is higher than one would expect from other platforms after all (Although progress is probably being made here).
At first, I thought that the fork had created a lot of sales pressure, since the community had more or less split and part of the former community had thrown everything onto the market that wasn't nailed down. But from the regular reports of @penguinpablo I see that this has leveled out and there is no excessive seller front:
https://hive.blog/hive-133987/@penguinpablo/daily-hive-stats-report-wednesday-january-13-2021
Clueless to the verdict?
Even without knowing the background, this thought leads me to the silent decision not to consider increasing my stake for now, although I have thought about it in the meantime, because I like the idea of Hive in general. I just see the danger of pumping money into a niche that will always remain one and swallow the money in the long run. Who knows, maybe there will be some movement here and I will regret this "decision" in retrospect, but yeah....
Illuminate me!
There are certainly some here who have also dealt with the issue. What are your thoughts on the subject? I would be happy if one or the other shares his perspective.
In conclusion...
... I have to say that 2020 was a good year for me. Both from a personal perspective, but also from a financial perspective. And that's despite the fact that I didn't necessarily expect a positive development (especially of the assets) after the start of Corona. In this sense, it is actually a good thing that only 3 of my assets closed in the red.
Unexpected happy ending at the end?
Maybe not a happy ending, but I'm not here to make big money, but to immerse myself in this world of tomorrow. At the very least, I hope we say goodbye to centralized platforms and take a decentralized approach. Whether that ends up being Hive, another existing project, or even a project that doesn't exist yet, I don't really care. There will still be some hurdles to overcome, but remember - it's always moving forward.
P.S. Sure, it's always nicer to talk about and celebrate successes. But every now and then you should also talk about more unpleasant things. Here is my invitation to you!
If you did not hear about it yet - Join the #Cryptohunt and solve this riddle to find the 800 lost HIVE.
Understanding blockchain? Let's play pack your bags
Michael Saylor's 15.000.000 USD BTC prediction
Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index 2020: Look at Russia
What a bonsai tree has in common with financial success
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It's the inflation. I never invested in Steemit but by my account was worth about 800$ when I quit. When I came back my Hive is now worth about 50$...
I like Hive for the learning about crypto and meeting interesting people aspect, but as an Investment its a pump and dumper at best.
Btw Im predicting a massive pump for Steemit, Hive and/or Leo since blockchain+social media is a pretty powerful thing. Just make sure to jump the ship when we get to 10$ per Hive and 50$ per Leo
One of the USPs of HIVE as of STEEM is immutability and censorship resistance. As most of the articles are click baits or simple links to other platforms there is maybe only limited value in it. A blog platform needs an AI to suggest articles to users. The voting system of HIVE supports only tribalization and does not offer any incentives to implementors of intelligent systems.
not sure if I agree with bringing in an AI but the tribalization sure sucks
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I think you are right about this and the long term downward trending prices of Steem and Hive implies that you are right.
Back in the day when Bitcoin was still new there were a lot of blogging communities that were just creating a ton of click bait. These sites came to be known as "content farms". People were just creating trash content that was design to exploit Google's search algorithm and run a ton of ads to collect money for the site owners and give some revenue share to people posting "content".
Google got hip to this and changed their algorithm to prioritize quality and the consequence of this was that most of these content farms started to lose page rank and ad revenue.
The mechanism for curating and selecting for quality on most of these blockchain blogging platforms are upvoting which has lead to tribalism or people creating new communities. I don't have a problem with people creating communities, but it seems like the more popular communities evolve their own front ends and 2nd layer coins that seem to be all in service of just more tribalism--a tribe within a tribe.
So far you are right about AI. Google does a better job of serving up "relevance" and "quality" than any other mechanism. This pure voting mechanism is never going to work because it relies on the "wisdom of the crowd". Sometimes the wisdom of the crowd works, but sometimes it just incentivizes non sense articles like:
"(Insert crypto here) is going to pump 10x" or "Influencer CryptoSomebody says, Blah blah blah" ...
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I wouldn't mind it at all, the question is whether a 100x in price is justified in terms of the development of the intrinsic value. I think that is very optimistic, if you consider that you then have to assume a market cap of around 5 billion.
Would agree with you that that can be powerful. However, I think the degree of maturity is still expandable and whether this power is understood by the majority of social media users is also questionable. Currently, this platform is uninteresting for "big" content creators in my opinion, because no user base can be reached and immense conversation barriers concentrate with regard to the already existing user base. Sure, you have a few rewards here, but let's be honest - compared to what you can make with real reach on a platform like Youtube, these are rather pennies in the end. How do you see it? Do you think Hive is really interesting for people who are not from the cryptospace and have been in content creation for a while? Do you think it's interesting for consumers who are not from the cryptospace. I think no, and I think that needs to change.
Feel free to share a little bit more. ;)
well we still have @davidpakman and @rt-international, there have been many more though.
I think one of the strong suites is that people can get in touch with crypto, earn a few coins and understand the science, at least the very basic of it.
I think the aspect that you can reward your favorite content creators and they can give back to their fans is a cool feature.
I see the coming Boom more from a technical standpoint more than one based on inherent value. Steem peeked at about 10$ when we had an irrational run-up in price. I expect a similar thing to happen again. SBD has been out of whack for some time now, which was a precursor to the last Boom
This reminded me to keep some liquid Hive on hand just in case things really go to the extreme. ^^
Is there something like a reminder bot here that can give us a reminder in X months here?
!remind
or something?
I think 3 Billion Market Cap for LEO might be a top I would have my eye on, powering down at 2 Bil.
With a 1 Trillion Market Cap and Leo maybe becoming the "portal" for many this is very possible imo.
Given the current number of users, I think that's a very bold estimate. All these small forums have more users than all Hive front-ends together... I absolutely don't see how such a market value should arise at the current state of development. Even if the mentioned spike comes about, I would see it in much lower heights.
the cool thing about snowball-systems: You might see avalanches
The amount that's printed and the few people that hold a bulk of it. It's always the same story with any crypto. A majority of any coin gets bought up quickly, mined etc within the first few weeks and from there it's a difficult hill to climb as the big boys cash out. It's all a game though like anything just gotta learn how to play it ;) HIve and Leo have a lot going for it this year
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Seeing as we got Hive for free I don't see how it can be a badly performing asset on any measure.
If you sold your Steem to BTC powering down for 13 weeks after the Hard fork, as many people did, then you will have done very well indeed.
Of course, if you got that airdropped, that's different. I didn't have an account on Steemit before and accordingly purchased a small amount in the middle of the year.